Only things which concern me are 1) NIM and 2) Net profit being low, given bond interest but i can see plenty that will mitigate this. 1) LTD down 2) deposits up significantly 3) news on progress for asset disposals / securitisation 4) cost-cutting. Since we've drifted last 2 weeks, id hope the chances of a big down are limited...a temporary down a bit then recovery to close up is my prediction
As for 2 billion in deposits, that was earlier this yr and mainly business accounts. Retail deposits are protected through EU law up to £85ks each. Published data in bond prospectus shows that more than £2 billion has flowed back.
MattWales, need to research more mate, otherwise looks like position posting!
LTD is coming down rapidly from 109% to 104% bond prospectus to 100% by Xmas. £350m was for MREL, a regulatory capital buffer. They can do disposals such as of the buy to let loan book to raise another 500m etc. to bring down their RAWA. The argumentation in your post is flawed.
'....seizing the opportunities that arise from leaving the European Union...' Sorry, the Queen's speech is written by the govt. not the Queen....to say it has the Queen backing is one of the most naive things i've ever read on a share BB.
Let's revoke A50 and "get Brexit over with". There, i said "get Brexit over with", so prob. some will think i support it...nope.
ps -sbdy said that 85% of SP is good governance. The greatest potential SP catalyst IMOV is getting rid of the doggie loving Vernon and putting in place a serious veteran with experience & imagination & a strong focus on good governance. That is key to confidence & trust, which is central to a SP rerating.
agreed ggg21 there are many positives. But for sake of balance, on neg's i can see low profits (balanced by high growth), possibly pressure on NIM and concerns that bond interest will prevent return to decent profitability until 2021. That aside, i can also see a line being drawn under the annus horribilus & a focus on cost-cutting & growth which may...slowly excite the mkt.
people posting the link...but if one reads full article, they are saying MTRO could make between a small profit and a small loss.
No mention of increasing deposits,reduced LTD, successful MREL 2, Watchdog rpt etc.
since telegraph recently claimed no rtn to profitability until 2021....they are accentuating the negatives in the headlines and ignoring the positives altogether. To suit the hedge fund briefers willing to give interviews?
Mr Hill is understood to have told several figures in his bulging contacts book earlier this month that he would consider taking his business off the stock market.
A return to private hands would mark an ignominious end to Metro's tumultuous three-and-a-half years of public ownership.
Mr Hill was backed by a host of wealthy figures including hedge fund billionaire Steve Cohen when he launched Metro in 2010 as the first new British high street bank for more than a century.
But this club of longstanding US supporters is understood to have lost patience with him following the accounting disaster in January and are now saddled with paper losses running into the billions of pounds.
Watchdogs are investigating what happened and Metro has warned the probe could even lead to criminal charges, while Mr Hill has come under fire over his leadership - and for a now-axed agreement which saw Metro pay £24m to his wife Shirley's architecture firm. However John Cronin, a banks analyst at Goodbody, said he believes Metro will be profitable for the quarter despite forecasts that the recent debt raise pushing the bank into the red for the full year.
Metro Bank is under pressure from the Bank of England to hire an industry veteran as its next chairman, as the troubled lender braces for another set of gloomy financial results. The lender is understood to be facing demands to hire an experienced insider in place of Metro founder Vernon Hill, who is stepping down as chairman following a disastrous year in which a major accounting gaffe left investors nursing huge losses. In a sign of their concerns about how Metro has been run up to now, Bank of England regulators are taking a keen interest in who gets the job. It is understood the successful candidate will be expected to have both the experience to oversee a large retail bank and the gravitas to stand up to Mr Hill, who owns a 3.5pc stake in Metro. The troubled bank is combing the City for a new chairman, but there have been questions around who might be interested in the job at a time when regulators are still investigating the loans error and changes to the structure of the bank are potentially afoot. Potential candidates with the required experience include the chairman of Allied Irish Bank (AIB) Richard Pym, who also used to chair the Co-operative Bank, as well as Co-op Bank's former chief executive Liam Coleman. Banking sources think Benny Higgins, the former boss of Tesco Bank, could also be on an initial list although his time in charge of Tesco Bank courted controversy for his use of expenses. The search for experienced candidates comes as City analysts warn that next week's third quarter results will involve another "painful" set of numbers for investors. Ian Gordon, of Investec, said: "It will be another tough quarter for Metro." Mr Gordon believes that profits will suffer a further squeeze when Metro unveils results on Wednesday, as profits are squeezed and it is forced to set aside more cash to deal with investigations by regulators.He is expecting a £7.6m quarterly loss. Investors will also be looking for reassurance that the bond issue Metro got away late last month has steadied the ship, Mr Gordon added. The generous 9.5pc interest rate on the debt will cost the bank about £33m a year, meaning it is not expected to return to profit until 2021. Hill's club of longstanding US supporters is understood to have lost patience with him following the accounting disaster in January. Mr Hill is understood to have told several figures in his bulging contacts book earlier this month that he would consider taking his business off the stock market. A return to private hands would mark an ignominious end to Metro's tumultuous three-and-a-half years of public ownership. Mr Hill was backed by a host of wealthy figures including hedge fund billionaire Steve Cohen when he launched Metro in 2010 as the first new British high street bank for more than a century.But this club of longstanding US supporters is understood to have lost patience with him following the accounting disaster in Mr Hill is understood to have told several figures in his..
We know some of Q3 - deposits up, LTD down, and Tier 1 capital ratio 18.8%. The data in bond prospectus suggests no's improving. Of course, adverse publicity when they couldnt get MREL away may have slowed deposits for a couple of weeks but MREL 2 and Watchdog publicity should reverse that trend.
The unknown is profitability - and whether shorts try a last time to cast doubt on if they can afford the bond interest whilst remaining profitable. That's why im expecting some accelerated disposals to get risk-weighted assets down since they know they have to shake off the shorters to survive since it's all about confidence & trust in banking.
He cannot make concessions without keeping the DUP onside, since many Tory MPs take their cue from Arlene Foster’s party. The ERG’s hints of support after meeting Johnson last night are significant. Some ERG figures have previously claimed 60 Tories would oppose a deal based on May’s agreement even if the Irish backstop were removed, as it would be under Johnson’s plan.
The penny has finally dropped for the hardline Eurosceptics: this might be their last chance of securing Brexit without the gamble of a general election. Johnson could also rely on most of the 21 Tories who lost the whip for rebelling against no deal. He might need a handful of backbench Labour votes, but that is likely. But, for now, it looks like there won’t be a deal to put to a Commons vote.
What happens then? The Benn Act, forcing Johnson to seek an extension to the UK’s EU membership to prevent no deal on 31 October, kicks in on 19 October. Despite suggestions from ministers that Johnson has a secret plan to get round the act, they appear not to know what it is when quizzed in media interviews. It may be that the secret plan is that there is no secret plan; Downing Street wants MPs and the EU to think one exists, so they both sign up to an agreement to avoid no deal. But Brussels is cleverer than some Johnson allies think. It knows the Benn Act takes some of the pressure off the EU to strike an agreement. It might decide to wait and see what happens in an election during the three-month extension envisaged in the act.
How Johnson’s Brexit proposal moves on from May’s
If there is a secret plan, it is probably that Johnson sits on his hands on 19 October in the knowledge he would be taken to court. The government would lose, then grudgingly obey the law and request the extension the prime minister said he would never seek. In a general election, Johnson would in effect be asking for a mandate for no deal. That might allow him to squeeze the Brexit Party vote, as he knows he needs to do. The critical question would be whether Leave voters punished Johnson for the extension. The bad news for his opponents is that his allies are increasingly confident he would be able to deflect the blame to parliament, the EU and the judges. Jeremy Corbyn should think about that before he approves an election.
First, the good news for Boris Johnson. His long-awaited Brexit plan would probably be approved by the Commons. That would be quite a feat as it includes many elements of Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement, which was rejected three times by majorities of 230, 149 and 58.
But now the bad news: it is very unlikely to be put to a Commons vote in its current form because the EU looks set to reject it.
Brussels is wary of dismissing it out of hand, knowing that some Johnson allies cannot wait to start blaming the EU for a no-deal exit. But the proposal for some customs checks, even though away from the Irish border, is still considered “totally unacceptable”, one Brussels insider told me.
inRead invented by Teads
“It is not going to fly. This is a deal-breaker,” they said.
Another source said there was also “grave concern” about handing the Democratic Unionist Party a veto, via the Northern Ireland executive and assembly, on a regulatory zone that would in effect keep the province in the EU single market. The EU has its own veto on a deal: the European parliament must approve it, and the initial reaction of MEPs was hostile. Dublin reacted more strongly than the European Commission, and there is no sign of the EU abandoning the Irish government.
Boris Johnson and Brexit merchandise for sale at the Tory conference
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So Johnson is now faced with a catch-22: a deal acceptable to parliament won’t win EU approval, and vice versa.
Should he have got the EU onside first, and then tried to sell a deal to MPs? Perhaps. But there was a logic to doing it in the way Johnson did. The EU, its fingers burnt by May, has been reluctant to make concessions until it is confident a deal would secure a Commons majority. If Johnson can show there is what Michael Gove hailed as a “pretty solid majority”, it puts pressure on Brussels. The question now is whether the EU rejects the UK plan or enters formal negotiations. London is ramping up the pressure, hinting that talks must start this weekend and even threatening that Johnson might not attend the crunch EU summit on 17 & 18 October.
If serious negotiations take place, Johnson would have to give ground. There are signs he would. He has dropped the Downing Street spin that this is his “final offer”. One Whitehall source admitted: “There is scope for some movement on our side.”
One option would be to ditch Johnson’s customs plan in return for a time limit to the hated Irish backstop. But keeping Northern Ireland in the EU customs zone would almost certainly be a U-turn too far for Johnson. It could cost him the support of the DUP and the ERG for his proposed deal. So Johnson might then have an agreement acceptable to Brussels but not parliament. Catch-22 again"