Member Info for bransonbull

Slift, let me personally thank you for the high quality of your posts both on HUR and TLW. Keep up the good work. You research intensively , and then put questions out there for debate, which is the way it should be. It really is high quality input. So a genuine thanks from my side.

If the II has stopped selling and if the ESP's are doing the biz, we could see a rapid recovery here IMOV. DYOR. Orphans, widows need not apply

They will have to tread very carefully when increasing production. What makes you think they will go for sthng close to 20ks when guidance of 18ks was recently abandoned? The ESPs should help...but I'd have thought they will be risk averse and cautious?

Yes, risk of losing some down back of sofa

Even with a CPR downgrade, I can't imagine there aren't people looking at taking HUR out, given potential of its various acreages.

not sure how to post link

Sounds to me like these theories that DSPP love mes to put out willl be tested pretty soon, as we will know whether the ESPs actually work well!? Obi I'm not technical, so that are , are welcome to input to Steve and DSPP' conjecture

At the current draw-downs there is no way the water can be coning from the aquifer - UNLESS the OWC is incorrect. I'd need to run detailed calcs to be sure, but my first pass guess is that it would need to be at least 100m higher than is currently assumed (15%). From the calcs I have made the BHP would have to be below bubble pt. before the aquifer could cone that much, and the ESPs would be inoperable below Bub Pt.

I'm not saying the OWC assumptions ARE wrong, but it does seem a massive error. You'd need to go back to the original well 4, 6, & 7 reports & CPRs to confirm.

Also, if the OWC was that much higher it makes a HUGE difference to the reservoir volume - and hence the probable volume of oil in place... (ie. area reduces by depth^2, and also shallower... so approx 50% less volume for a 15% shallower reservoir). I really can't see the CPR allowing THAT much of a mistake....

BHA. What are your motives for posting? Are you close to HUR?

For sure, a mixed bag. But 15000 a day, submersibles being commissioned, no major capital outlay until spring 2021. The increased water cut was expected,. Hedging was for out options, in case of oil price fall, it doesn't mean they will sell at that level. Sensible given 2nd wave risks

Malcy loved HUR at the 46p level .

I think he was in the CMD, and i do remember thinking he didn't look well.

....mkt cap and the debt compared with O&G firms....who would bet that 500m barrels proven up won't lead to a cheeky bid? RRE just demonstrates the bottom fishing value!

A client of yours owns 35 million? That's a load.more than Dr T!!!

Yeah but no but, Malcy contended that this is not the base case but for risk management purposes, it has to be seriously considered

I'm enjoying the Chinese proverbs

Nope, he has temporarily stopped posting due to despairing at the quality of this BB

Brent is up. I'm very optimistic over 50 will be hit in 2020. Despite hiccup at Lancaster I'd see this recovering quickly at some point in 2020. Patience dear boy

My contribution today "Guys, she's ready to blow".

Oilman's theory is you should rive the wave of speculation during the exploration phase , rather than hold in the difficult production phase. Yes, except many say exploration for small caps is broken as a biz model. I'd prefer to do production and exploration any day than exploration alone, as there is this important little dimension in business known as revenue, which can be oh so vital during a downturn