RE: Genuine question21 Aug 2019 18:15
Chris, just making sure that this as ill judged as I think, yet another daft Donk sarcastic post, as follows .....
"But you are right, as always, Brad - Tony knows what he is doing, that’s why it’s taken 3 years to get negotiating on a 2mw PPA and issue so many shares just to stay in the game. And BDC and the various banks Colm talked to are all committed to funding the project. Just like GE and IPC amazing partners - were they not supposed to help with funding...."
My strong belief is that TG would like to keep the shares at 450Mn. Staged development is so aimed at self-financing each phase with previous phases' profits. The notion that anybody in this world can build a power station without share issues or other financing is just bizarre! Tony is deliberately leaving finance on the side until he is can apply from a position of strength.
Phase 1. Get enough gas flows to power the next phase, 2Mw minimum on the first round.
Phase 2a. Agree a price for the available power.
Phase 2b. Implement the production of that power.
Phase 2c. Build/extend Serowe distribution lines if required.
Phase 3. Deliver profitable electricity.
Phase 4 Repeat the dose using the profits until deciding when dividends should kick in.
The risk will be ever reducing with each round, and we will also have more assets/security so the cost of finance should be less onerous with time. That is the plan as I understand it. Where is the danger? Ad nausea, those first gas flows!
Subsequent gas flows will each be of concern and could end further production, but I think I heard TG say that the gas flows currently being investigated are expected to be more than enough for 2Mw. If so I don't rule out a bigger generator but that is just the opinion of an idiot perhaps.
I hated learning how to calculate confidence levels back in college days - wish I could remember the theory now - the TG plan imho is way up there in the 90's. But despite my confidence, TG, could still not be the real thing?
So why is Donk invested if that is remotely true? Must stop before I talk myslef into putting all my savings into TLOU.