Member Info for BradSmith

It looks like CF knew what he was doing?

"For investment-grade companies, the average yield on bonds was 2.77% as of Wednesday, according to Bloomberg Barclays index data. In late November, that figure was above 4.3%. For a company selling $1 billion of debt, that amounts to $15.3 million of annual interest savings, before taxes. Junk-bond yields have dropped too, with notes rated in the BB tier, the uppermost high-yield levels, paying a near record-low 4.07%."

Broadmeadow - I think I have water on the brain and need a tap n the knee.

The markets are pretty well back in synch again.

Don't you? #4 could peak at 98 from 20 , #3 could peak at 50 from 20 (after an extra month).
Given all the different ways of measuring flows and reserves, those figures struck me as easily comparable.
But we are 20 years on in a fairly new industry, we are likely to avoid the problems Broadwater experienced, and TG has already proved himself twice in creating commercial companies.
I doubt the Broadwater CEO was smiling as much as TG is currently, as always we just have to depend on TG and his officers to get it right. Nothing has changed materially, just that my foregone conclusion that we'll definitely "get dressed for success" (Roxette , Look Sharp, still playing in the car) needs to include a small percentage that "we'll lose our shirts".
My son's £5k is now in profit so that is a warm feeling, and I don't use a catheter yet :O)

Tony did say the first generator could conceivably be 1Mw , but more than likely 2Mw as planned , with gas left over for the next phase.
It sounds good to me, but not to Donk, shame he does not explain his reasoning (which I attempt to do).
By doing that people can correct any misunderstandings, like yesterday over 100 or 200 mcfd, - but just trotting out positives or negatives without justifying them is pure blind faith or otherwise.

Happy nights it was because of one decent buy at 9.7c, bless that person, my IG account now shows 3 of 4 stocks in profit (TOU down £250) but my account is now in the blue! £2k up in a few days. And two dividends to come for a few more TOU buys.

"In the Broadmeadow pilot project, Well 3 peaked at 98 Mscf/D and Well 8 peaked at 50 Mscf/D within one year of their completion."

Those figures could easily be replicated as Lesedi #4 and #3 in hopefully much less than a year.
We need 160 and they total 148?
It looks like #1 and #2 not being as good as expected maybe common. Third time lucky?
Full marks to TLOU for getting #3 and #4 right, if they are of course.

See what you expect to see?
Two sells at 9.4c of course!
Aussies selling to bet on Steve Smith being top scorer in the test?
So the auction took the price up?

2 buys at 9.4c , no sells , happy nights!
Buy is 9.7c

My source was "https://petrowiki.org/CBM_case_studies" - there is lots more, including barrels of water produced which I deleted because I don't think we know our numbers?

1. The Bowen basin (Fig. 7) has long been recognized as a potential CBM giant with an estimated resource base of at least 178 Tscf.[39] As far back as 1976, wells were drilled adjacent to existing mines to produce coal gas. In 1987, an eight-well pilot was initiated in the Broadmeadow gas field of the Northern Bowen basin, resulting in low-rate gas production.[40] This was followed by more than 120 production wells and core holes over the next 10 years in an attempt to establish commercial production. This goal was achieved in February of 1998 with the first sale of gas from the Comet Ridge field. A second field, the Scotia field, began selling gas in 2002.

2. In the Broadmeadow pilot project, Well 3 peaked at 98 Mscf/D and Well 8 peaked at 50 Mscf/D within one year of their completion. Although formation damage and production problems may have contributed to these low rates, it is doubtful that commercial gas rates could ever be attained given the consistently low permeabilities of less than 1.5 md measured in four wells.

In contrast, the Comet Ridge CBM project attained commercial status in 1998.

3. imho conclusion.
Peak or commercial rates might be a year rather than weeks or months.
The problems may not be encountered at Lesedi.
Our flows are strongly expected to beat 98 mcfd with only 2 wells. (4 at least @ Broadwindsor).
Drill moving to Mamba soon supports that expectation.

My faith in Tony is still complete, but there might be more chance of his making a mistake than I thought.
He hasn't dismissed the risks and his experience includes the problems to avoid at previous projects.
I still trust in his judgement and his honesty tbh. But I can at least see where Donk is coming from now.

1667 mcfh produces 0.49 Mwh according to Kyle.
40k cu ft per day is 1667 per hour!

So if my arithmetic is right we need just over 4 x 0.49 to get to our goal of 2Mwh.
4 x 40k is 160 mcfd needed from #3 and #4 combined.

So gas flows must improve four-fold from current delivery to reach commercial rate.

After Donk spoke in a sensible manner today, I have investigated the Bowen basin, which includes part of Comet Ridge resources, and another one called Broadmeadow which looks very comparable with Tlou.

I'll post my findings separately but for the first time I see where the possibility of a Tlou failure is not as remote as I believed!
Timings are quite revealing!

Sorry Chuk - you mean the target is 200 I guess - no wonder foreigners find English hard.
Each pod would need 100 is definitely 200
Both pods need to reach 100 could be 100 or 200 , depending on the interpretation of both.
Both , accumulatively or individually? We are all agreed on 200 for commercial, and I was thinking 100 so youm right to correct me.

I seem to be saying things without using the words lately :O)
I agree, Chuk, I was responding to 'money' who said we have a gas flow of 20. I was reminding him both pods are producing 20 i.e. 40 in all.
60 to go , not 80 iyswim.
Took the bike out today , just did about 5 miles in a circle. Looked to see how far I'd gone without success, but it came up with max speed reached? Hard to believe but it said 78mph? Was just getting the feel of it not having a burn up - will have to watch the speedo a bit closer unless it was 78mph from further back than the trip meter miles.

Interestingly, given I have loads invested in Avanti, I got a confirmation message of my email setup from Libby Barr at BT.

She left a while ago!
Libby Barr is now ... Chief Operating Officer at Avanti Communications Group plc

G , I have set up a temporary email for you to use.

bradsmithtlou@btinternet.com

If you'll kindly send me a mail , I'll reply to you with a phrase or saying for you to post on the TLOU board.
You need not mention me on your post - when I see the magic words under olda , I'll know it is you.
I'll then post my proper email address to you without telling the world.

Clever isn't it? Scotman on SXX did this with me so I cannot claim the credit for it.

Hi G, I suspect he responded to one of the chatrooms which mentioned lack of director buys last week.
TG needs another £25k worth with 21M shares already , so it was a kind gesture to the poster. And it will do him not harm at 8.8c

Are you ready to go for that pint one of these days? Motorbike is legal now unless you want to me to bring Poppy in case you get bored. I assume your lad has moved out by now?

Funny post yesterday - I was accused of being both Donk and a double agent?
If the accuser knew how tight I am, he'd know I'd never waste money on being a 'premium member' if that is the title.
I spend thousands on worthless shares but will squeal like a pig at £2 to a bank, internet provider or phone company!
£2 was 40 TLOU shares until yesterday?

Time to take the hound out and see if if my post is flagged with 5.4p ?

With 12.5% and 3% royalties payable for Lesedi royalties , t'other two have a bit more leeway to be profitable.
Assuming that those royalties will not be payable elsewhere. I think the royalties are either or not cumulative.

My IG account is only down £600 now with two dividends due.
Westpac are getting close to the bottom of my expected range , but TOU only had one trade all night.
The Chinese are turning Aussie banks sp's around maybe. Brokers sentiment is improving.

Comet don't have the same feel as TLOU tbh.
They spend a lot of time talking about geology rather than their markets?
It is clear from the overview they are intending to sell gas itself and the clarity ended there for me.
The number of drillings they make looks so low , single figures as often as not , compared to our 100.
But they use a different parlance don't they? e.g. development pods and production pods have not been mentioned in the bits I have seen.

When I was a boy a billion was a million millions - nowadays it is a thousand millions - and my billion is now a trillion.
What a wasted education eh :O)

I know the feeling - after years of paying higher rate tax, I was made redundant and could not get benefits because I owned (tell my mortgage companies that) two properties! Had to sell the flat in London and that was my pension scheme!
In between, I never went out cos it always resulted in spending money I could not afford! Missus and her mum dragged me out eventually, and I'll never forget Wetherspoons! They had a coffee each and I had a pint of Spitfire for a total of £2.20 - JDW were in my portfolio after the flat was gone!
Sirius and Tlou and a defunct share (USOP and AVN in my case) is in common - perhaps we could be the new Chuckle bros?
My first joke? I put AVN in my ISA! £7 to a halfpenny!