Member Info for BradSmith

Chuk, your question triggered thoughts about coal and gas but asking the right question to see how gas gets in and out of the coal proved tricky. I hope I got this right, no guarantees - info was gleaned from various web sites.

My extremely rough guide would say that wood rots, and under the pressure of being deep underground, creates coal, plus methane . The pressure puts the two together (and other minerals for sure) and the methane enters the coal (adsorption). The continuing pressure keeps it there aided and abetted by any water.
Where there is no water, drilling relieves the pressure on the open surfaces which can now leak methane?
Otherwise the water moves in to maintain some, if not all, the pressure?
Remove the water, expose the drilled surface at a lower pressure, and the methane leaks (desorption).

This is guesswork, but makes sense to me ....
If there is no water, in wet areas, it suggests the coal is too dense for water ingress , and maybe for gas leaks?
If water is present, the gas and water can get in and out or around the coal. Plenty of scope for gas movement?

Please show the link to an idiot's guide if any of you know of one (or more). Some types of coal need heat to release gas so if a pod only had anthracite would CBM be dead and buried? So much to consider - glad I am sponsoring experts who know what to do :O)

Got the athletics on and the two top women's high jumpers could win a beauty contest!

More water flows means more permeability in the coal. (Less like granite, more sponge-like).
More permeability means more gas escapes from the coal. (we know there is loads (trillions) to escape so seam size is n/a).
More cavities or cracks means the gas has an easier and faster passage to the collection point, (once released from the coal (desorption)). No water flow = little or no gas flow.

Tony explains it very concisely in the last link, towards the start of the interview.

And this face to face meeting with Andrew Scott.
All about going forward, funding to the middle of year for the site.
Financing needed for transmission as a separate issue.
Cheaper financing of expansion funds after first phase derisks .... and an absolute statement that we PI's have done our part and he desperately wants to avoid dilution of our holdings or asking us for more money.
An explanation of how CBM work, 3 months on #3 and more because of additional water that needed extra equipment to remove it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TkqiqJLtRzo

Since then #4 gained a whole month on gas flows - no doubt the heavier duty pumping lesson was learned!
Many sources say more water = more cavities = more gas , even Sunshine (now a subsidiary of Shell ) has it on their site!
"How a QGC gas well works:
Natural gas is held in the coal by groundwater pressure. When the water is released, gas flows from the seams."
https://www.shell.com.au/about-us/projects-and-locations/qgc/about-onshore-natural-gas.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfRuBxxvBHs

You put the mockers on the weather G!
Just back from a soaking wet dog walk after two visits to the chemists.
They had two prescriptions from the doctors , one ordered this morning - but not made up yet.
Called back after the denching and they were all done.

Whether the weather be fine
Or whether the weather be not,
Whether the weather be cold
Or whether the weather be hot,
We'll weather the weather
Whatever the weather,
Whether we like it or not. (One of my wife's favourite rhymes).

BTS , thanks for the pump and dump suggestion. You have hit the nail on the head for me.
Someone's anger is misdirected towards TG instead of historical p&d posters !
He fell for their ploy and probably lost out .... except it may not have been a ploy?
I wonder if I was foolish in following Shanks Pony too! It is possible the rampers, like me , believed what they were saying before the temptation to take a decent profit became too great. So they took their profit, maybe intending to buy back, but never did? Having moved on, perhaps they are back in now after a long sabbatical .... the risk looks worth taking now, it makes sense. If they start talking TLOU again soon we'll know. Tom included!

I have been very slow, but if somebody repeatedly tells me person A is a bad un, I don't concentrate on persons B to Z!
And that scenario is what none of us would understand? Donk has just realised the same thing but isn't man enough to tell us? The market has changed , long term holding is no longer the way, there isn't enough loyalty out there. Opportunism is the modern way. Does not alter my faith in TG - traders have benefitted from the fall in price - the lth has not to the same extent - nothing to do with TG imho - he should have traded as well but we'd never have gotten that pension company on board at 11p. This is a cruel world.

Brilliant site for £1 share parties drinks lists :O)
Tis a bit like memory lane on some shares!

yipes BTS ..... I think I have found an adversary's reference folder.
His list may not have been from memory.
http://pumpedordumped.com/rampchecker/rampcheckbytidm.php?search=tlou
I looked up Cora and Tom Corvid and the link came up - changed it a the result is almost a donk post!

Look at the financials Chuk.
GLL clearly already have other irons in the fire and are making sales.
Financials (AUD)
Sales 2019 2,00 M
EBIT 2019 -
Net income 2019 3,00 M
Finance 2019 8,00 M
Yield 2019 1,35%

Sales 2020 3,00 M
EBIT 2020 1,00 M
Net income 2020 5,00 M
Debt 2020 23,0 M
Yield 2020 2,16%

COI are in a similar position to us.
Financials (AUD)
Sales 2019 0,00 M
EBIT 2019 -4,46 M
Net income 2019 -2,87 M
Finance 2019 13,4 M
Yield 2019 -

Sales 2020 -
EBIT 2020 -3,80 M
Net income 2020 -2,26 M
Debt 2020 26,0 M
Yield 2020 -

And this is ours, a complete waste of time (ASX / TOU is not uptodate as I said earlier) ... we have no income so just losses, like Comet. GLL makes more sense than Comet from that point of view. All these figures from marketscreen.
Financials (AUD)
Sales 2016 -
EBIT 2016 -
Net income 2016 -
Debt 2016 -
Yield 2016 -

Sales 2017 -
EBIT 2017 -
Net income 2017 -
Debt 2017 -
Yield 2017 -

Donkey trotted (sorry) out a list of posters who had departed his thread and TLOU over the years.
Maybe one or more told him he was wrong and that they are on twitter or somewhere else but still heavily invested and WHY!
I think we'd all undertand that, but it isn't godlike behaviour is it. If Tom isn't still heavily invested I'll be amazed.
And I remember Hejhogg impressing my son on another stock. I cannot remember him well but I doubt he is out completely either.

That link looks great but TOU on ASX but news dries up after May. Cannot get to AIM on there.
For someone who is investing on ASX it is very user friendly apart from pesky invitations to register for free.
After all the emails I got from Hotcopper I think I'll pass!
Eventually stopped Hotcopper messages but when I went to it recently it said I'd left, if it was in error I could rejoin.

Blow you Chukkers, I looked up something due to you and after hours of cracking PDF text that could not be copied yesterday, I found this link which is not a PDF file!

https://www.marketscreener.com/GALILEE-ENERGY-LTD-10357480/news/Galilee-Energy-Glenaras-Gas-Project-ndash-Gas-Production-2-September-2019-29144735/

It is dated 2nd September Chukkers.
"These wells are progressively starting to flow gas through the meters albeit at rates too
small to measure at this stage."

Tlou have measured 20mcpd so is our equipment more sensitive?

For all those people who avoid reading Donkey , he has further clouded his stance.
He has gone from TLOU being a con with no gas but he has money invested, to this filtered message which may bring you cheer (though I doubt it, given your opinion of him). Don't shoot the messenger please ....

"donkey40 8 Sep '19 - 00:24 - 7521 of 7523
Through reasons that not a single poster here will understand, I (remarkably) just turned positive on CBM in Botswana.
Tlou might just have a chance now. Tony’s hat trick is however unlikely to be on a scale approaching Arrow and Sunshine (if indeed he ever made the $$ some punters on the boards like to suggest he made)."

He is now approaching a junction with the road to Damascus :O)
His bitterness is terrible, he is disputing history now after doubting the anticipated future.
As usual he talks in riddles - nobody but he understands? - I think he is a reincarnation of Caligula.

++++++++++++++++++
I'll clarify that , nothing to do with sexual prowess but from this bit of wiki .....

Claims of divinity
... Caligula began appearing in public dressed as various gods and demigods such as Hercules, Mercury, Venus and Apollo. Reportedly, he began referring to himself as a god when meeting with politicians .....

I hate to think what some posters would say if TG had issued that statement.
20k cu ft per day from both #3 and #4 looks a damned sight better doesn't it?

Taken me ages to copy this from a PDF file. They attach importance to measuring the precise amount of water.
I guess that tells then the volume of cavities and fissures for comparison with other pods? We just say there was more than expected and it has reduced to desorption levels, good enough for me.

"2 September 2019
Highlights
Casing pressure has built up over recent days and gas has now commenced flowing from the pilot.
All five lateral wells on continuous production and performing strongly.
Water rates currently at 6,800 BWPD (barrels of water per day) in aggregate.
Reservoir drawdown continues to be strong resulting in all wells now producing below the critical desorption pressure.


Galilee Energy Limited (ASX:GLL) (“Galilee”) is pleased to provide an update on the 100% owned
and operated Glenaras multi-lateral pilot programme (“Pilot”) in the Galilee Basin ATP 2019.
As previously announced, the Glenaras multi-lateral pilot is on continuous production and
demonstrating excellent water rates with the wells flowing water rates of approximately 6,800 BWPD
in aggregate. All wells are now flowing below the critical desorption pressure and the water flow
rates are starting to level off as gas desorption begins.
The casing pressure has built up in each of the wells indicating gas is beginning to be produced from
the coal. These wells are progressively starting to flow gas through the meters albeit at rates too
small to measure at this stage. Gas rates will continue to increase as fluid levels in the wells are
reduced further and more coal area is drawn down below the critical desorption pressure.
There is still strong evidence of direct communication between each of the lateral wells which is
enhancing pressure drawdown in the pilot area.
“These results are extremely encouraging and the rapid progress to critical desorption is validation
of our enhanced multi-lateral design.” Managing Director Peter Lansom stated.
The pilot will be on production for an extended period to de-water and lower the pressure in the
surrounding coal to achieve a commercial gas flow.

"

Galilee has only 230.18m issued shares @ $1.11AUD for market cap of $263.56mAUD
compared to our 450.18M @ $0.1AUD for AUD 43.67M.
Huge differences as you say Chuk but both companies say exactly the same sort of thing (in my next post) and of the two we look more advanced on the new pods. Galillee probably have more advanced ones elsewhere which probably explains everything.

Half as many shares issued by Galilee, so proportionally the share price reduces to $0.55, still over five times our price!
Why? Well https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/electricity_prices/ shows Botswana retail price per unit is USD 0.09 BUT Australia's is USD 0.24 so coming on for 3 times the price?
Losses from generation to delivery might see the Aussies retaining more of it.

The prices across Australia vary enormously - so the population density clearly matters.
The differences probably reflect production and distribution costs but ...
from https://gobulk.com.au/australian-electricity-prices/
"Here’s a snapshot of wholesale electricity prices as at June 2018:
State or territory Wholesale price $/MWh
South Australia $114.16
Victoria $100.12
New South Wales $88.06
Tasmania $82.73
Queensland $76.92 "

Comet ridge and Tlou HQ's are separated from each other by roughly 500m of Edward St!
Queen St and Alice st are both off it. Queen St is east, and Alice St is West.
Mr Edwards Alehouse and Kitchen (twixt the two) probably has well informed waiters on CBM :O)

Chuk, Bowen Basin , including Broadmeadow, timescales were the significant factor.
I was thinking weeks or months to peak flows, not years! Bowen raised that possibilty loud and clear.
Hopefully TG knows it is actually weeks or months and not years, and there is no cause for alarm, which is down to you this time. Hasn't the time to get peak flows been everyone's worry for months now? I thought we agreed long ago that there is no simple formula for time or flow strengths for us to use.

Did you see my Thu 17:46 post, G.

Chuk, I still think the evidence is overwhelmingly in favour of TG judging progress very well.
But the Broadmeadow story does show a potentially different outcome.
I am almost certain if more pods were needed to get flow rates up to commercial rates then the drill would be in use already for another pod at worst , and be on standby otherwise. Sending it to Mamba tells a different tale - it is not needed because they are confident #3 and #4 will be enough to start generating electricity. But you may be right on this roller coaster of an sp.

I think TLOU day traders must be the kindest people in the world.
Just as you think the low prices are gone forever - the day traders rescue them!
One day the price will keep going up and they'll regret being so greedy.

Tricky one 66Kv v 220Kv
If, as we hope, we end up with loads of power is it better to install 220Kv from the off rather than update to it later?
I don't suppose we'd export both voltages so would need to close down while transformers are installed and cables erected to Serowe. Donk questioned this a while ago.

If Sekaname get funding (which I wonder about) they may be interested in building a distribution system (wires and posts) at 220Kv which we could share? Long term investment for them, but that depends upon the site of their CBM - don't think we know that?

Is USD the normal currency for power trading? 12c per kwh sounds quite a good price so early in the chain.
The consumers are not going to find it cheap once the middle men add their chunk.