Member Info for Bozi

Bit of paranoia from you there Novice I feel.

People are merely discussing why a share promising so much more than £375m is priced at £375m. Sometimes you've got to drill down and talk about those things that aren't obvious.

Get some fresh air on this crisp November afternoon and come back soon when we're 55p.

Interesting discussion.

I agree with both of you. Addicknt I feel has it spot on re current valuation and appetite from the market to apportion any sort of premium.

HubrisHunter makes some fair points in terms of future outlook, setting out the reasons we're all here.

I think there's merit in what you're both saying and a market will absolutely look back at financial results as a means to find a valuation when there's little to no appetite for risk on. When it flips however....

Redknight - I can't argue that the merger dilutes other shareholders but I don't necessarily agree with your point that the merger wasn't defensive, and I think it's fair to say the market doesn't agree too.

If the merger was assumed to be an attacking move then I'd have expected more of a share price reaction. Wouldn't you? Instead, the initial announcement was sold off and any subsequent rise has been met with selling. Early days I know but that is the price action so far.

I think Irwin and Sangha have moved upon the realisation that selling CGP standalone was proving fruitless. They had a good 3 or 4 years to do this and there were no offers despite completion of various MREs, the PEA, the PFS and the emergence of Tandyama America.

The proof will be in the pudding I'm sure. I just think that with SOLG proclaiming to have funding options well progressed that the merger may have been more positively received. Maybe it will be details of the finance that brings the market back in.

Of course I will Sean, that doesn't mean I have to be happy about it.

I think I'll decide what a win is for me, cheers SH.

I'm not sure desperate is the word I'd use Redknight, but bear in mind that Irwin and Sangha are getting one premium from the merger. Now account for the fact they'd be getting another at 40p per SOLG.

The only losers would be Mather and us. Mather isn't invincible unfortunately. We've witnessed that in various ways the last couple of years.

Redknight - there's a difference in our thinking and that's fine. I'll suggest it's a trading viewpoint vs value investing.

As for Sangha, Irwin and Mather, those three cannot move the markets. The former two rejected the higher offers earlier on and the macro economic outlook has now changed significantly.

It's really no different than us all talking about a price in the pounds a few years ago. Things change. There's nothing to guarantee those earlier offers will ever be matched. You will surely appreciate that given your appetite to stay nimble in the markets?

Absolutely Addicknt - I'm just hoping your wrong with this theory!

Just think about it Sean.

Being tied to sell our flagship asset or the company now, at a point where we're heading along into a global recession, isn't going to work very well for us.

You might be happy to cash out of this at 40p but I am not. It would be a horrendous result to put it politely.

Addicknt - 15 if your 8:40 post is anything close to accurate then I fear for us all.

I think that set of circumstances is akin to a firesale and places a firm ceiling on our potential. Irwin, Sangha and Co win twice and the rest of us SOLG shareholders left to pick up the scraps.

I worry generally what Q1 and maybe even Q2 has in store for the markets and this strategic review has come at the worst possible time.

LuckyLuciano

There's no mention of the ALL/Ricca Cote divoire licences in the RNS,

"Firering Strategic Minerals plc, an exploration company focusing on critical minerals, is pleased to announce that it has entered into binding and definitive agreements (the "Agreement") with Ricca Resources Limited ("Ricca"), an Australian diversified minerals company which was formerly part of AIM and ASX-quoted Atlantic Lithium Limited (AIM: ALL, ASX: A11, OTC: ALLIF), to advance the Atex Lithium-Tantalum Project ("Atex") and the adjacent Alliance exploration licence (once granted) (together the "Atex and Alliance Lithium-Tantalum Projects", "AALTP" or the "Project") in Côte d'Ivoire."

Atlantic will be a beneficiary Pastyhead.

We've basically been paying our own G&A only for the last 6 months. Piedmont have funded an up scaled 48,000m drill programme adding tonnes to the resource and improving the reserves.

They're also covering the majority of the Capex cost.

Atlantic are left with the upside on 50% of the produce and competitive tension on the remaining project stake.

Pastyhead at 19:46 last night

"I suppose at the end of the day whoever has control as long as they are aligned with the investors it doesn't really matter there should be plenty of future profits to keep everyone happy and Niel Herbert's latest statement that dividends should follow the start of production is good news for all shareholders."

What has changed in the first 90mins of trade this morning Pastyhead?

Guessing Pastyhead has sold this morning.

Maybe invest in Greggs?

The partnership with Piedmont is exactly that, a partnership. 50/50 moving on ahead in Ghana.

You have to leave good upside for them. They've come in at what was a crucial time for ALL and their finances have saved us from a decent slug of AIM dilution.

If Piedmont get $2.4bn of lithium then so do ALL. Plus the Cote d'Ivoire lithium.

And then there's the rather large matter that is Ricca.

Just done some scribbly calcs - please feel free to correct:

127.5kt per annum produce to ALL
@ $2000pt SC6% = $255m (£220m)

Less costs of $300pt = $38.25m

EBITDA = $216.75m (£186m).

A sale for c. £720m therefore puts us on a forward P/E of just 4.

Far far too cheap :-)

An asset with the exploration upside this one has?
An asset that is technically so simple to develop and operate?
An asset that should be in production 2 years from now?
An asset with much of the capex already committed on favourable terms leaving a modest shortfall to find?
An asset that produces a premium product that will be in strong demand to power the electric revolution?

I just can't see how a sale of 120p tomorrow is the best solution. Just do the maths on the revenue and EBITDA figures at even half of the current spod spot.

There are certain assets where you can argue a cash out on the journey to deeper pockets is the play. This is not one of those.

Hold for (white) gold

The way I see it:

1) if we apply the same "Sangha and Irwin" logic about them not agreeing to merge ahead of a solution that doesn't suit them, then a JV at Cascabel shouldn't really be on the cards. SolGold would receive some cash and that staves off dilution but it extends SOLGs existence far beyond anything Warren Irwin would be interested in.

If a JV were to happen then I think Warren would be a nailed on seller into liquidity.

2) Mitsui poses a problem for SOLG. SOLG has to be careful about CGP offering them their stake in the company because it's conceivable that they end up a concert party with BHP. SOLG would therefore be reluctant to see BHP increase their interest via Mitsui.

CGPs motivations are different though and so there may be an interesting bone of contention there between SOLG and CGP.

3.) The updated PFS at Cascabel will show some progress but we'll likely be up scaling our assumed costs to account for inflationary pressures. I expect the improvements will more than cover them bit you can never guarantee how the press will lead.

4.) The AGM has been conveniently slated for the latrst possiblentime before Christmas. We can be sure than any directors not retained or not sufficiently carried to warrant re-election will be shipped out over the holidays.

5.) Any broader findings from the strategic review will be along in Q2 2023 I feel. These things don't happen overnight, ever.

Sean - if you think the SP goes to 2p in a future production scenario, how much do you think we'd be able to sell the company for next week or next month. Surely not for the same 78-80p p/s?

Ella - i should hope not. In my view, drilling contractors shouldn't really be investing in exploration companies, particularly not if they're partly getting paid in shares too.

I'd hope that the investor is someone like Sandfire or an investing company. Quite why the name is being withheld i have no idea. It only becomes notifiable when the shares are issued but given theybhave drawn clear attention to the point in the first place surely dictates that it's material information?

Time to roll that KAV dice again. We're due a real breakthrough and hopefully it will be the KCB that provides it.

Mathers - the majority of commentators have been keen on a takeover since the scale of Alpala became known in 2018.

Nothing will change that fact.

People can be concerned for any number of reasons. Your Warren Irwin's want their cash out to reinvest. He clearly thinks there's much better opps than SolGold. The same applies to others. Some investors just want to trade and will take any volatility to the upside to necessitate that.

I say this because for a long long time I've been in your corner. However, I've now got to admit that SolGold have taken their time of things to get to this stage (not really sure why the granular detail of geologists and people cooking is relevant). As such I understand why some are concerned about how long it will take to achieve further milestones and why some believe production won't ever happen. The timeline doesn't appear to be getting any closer and that also is a concern to investors.

I think it's a case of skipping past the "middle earth theories" you refer to. People are imaginative and 99% of the time they'll be wrong but I suppose I'd rather that than just telling myself to be patient every day.