RE: AFR Article - Newcrest / Havieron + Solgold20 Aug 2022 21:50
Fortissimo,
The messaging appears to be that further streams are not an option at this moment in time. There's also a fair bit to be said for openly exploring another of these deals prior to a DFS and investment decision given that the funds would be for G&A and not directly for project development.
The use of too many streams will impact the economic robustness of the project and you could argue harm the prospects of a takeover. Who wants to buy an asset that is a good few years away from first production but highly geared before a shovel has broken ground? Every stream SOLG does now works in the favour of Filo, Solaris and Co.
This appears to have been overlooked.
I do absolutely agree that one faction of our register is going to be happier than the rest. That is absolutely the dynamic in play. Now, do you think BHP are going to be scorned or do you think it'll be Mather, given everything else going on around us? I've got an idea given that an important AGM is approaching but I suspect you'll see it differently.
The strategic review card is a bit of a red herring in my view. Why does SolGold need to announce a strategic review to bring others to the table? They don't. The fact of the matter here is that our door has been open for years now, ever since the standstill agreements with NCM and BHP expired...and what have we seen? A measly Β£7/8m from Valuestone. Everyone else knows where they stand. They know they can wait, remove the risks that come from being stuck in the market and potentially make their play by stepping in as a white knght with a counter offer to a low ball bid. I don't like that as much as you Fort but that's the reality of it from where I'm sitting.
Also, it's about time we stopped thinking that SOLG are bombproof because we have a tier 1 asset. There's a lot to be said about that misplaced arrogance. We are, for all intents and purposes, still a resource junior. Our funding options are somewhat reduced due to a weak capital market, we have a large shareholder who would like very much to comandeer what we have at a cheap price and furthermore they have ample motive to make that play a reality. I do see a placing as being the easiest way out of our current predicament and whilst Mather won't like it, there is at least something he can do about it (participate to maintain his stake). The same can't necessarily be said for many of the long term holding PIs.
My read from here, and I'm happy to say it because I'm happy to be wrong is that SOLG does the obligatory placing and open offer, by the end of September, raising about Β£25-30m. Same rubbish open offer as last year. Then, as we move into January, with at least one NED out on his ear, copper prices plunging as the economy teeters, then and only then will Mr Cazzubbo get something he wants to put to shareholders, maybe after a few weeks of BHP accumulating on the open market.
SOLGers, who let's be honest have been ready (in the main) to hand this ove