UK GOV needs to take serious action against companies not passing on the savings in fuel and raw food materials, its a total joke that oil is under $70 per barrel and a litre of diesel is £1.60+ .....
Yes Blert.
Feb inflation rose to 10.4% from January 10.1% number which is considerably above the markets forecast of 9.9%.
This inflation just keeps on giving, no chance of a rate pause now, just got to hope for .25% or the market will be toast.
If the FED and UK pause rates then I would expect a cracking day tomorrow across the market. I think someone posted here that when banks start to struggle that signals the end of the bear market.
If so then we may be finally out of one of the longest bear markets in history.
Equity investments by following the bonds disaster may also stimulate the markets.
I hope you all bought the dip last week (I only could squeeze in another 10k but already well in the black on those at least)!
Stock - Yes, that's fair enough re: US rumour. So maybe this will take us back up to 70p+ whilst the rumour plays out/hangs around.
You know what, if the results are flat (I can possibly even see negative growth but an EBITDA improvement with some positive news around FCF), BUT the strategy given all the parts you mention, is laid out clearly, with concrete timescales then this will trump the financials and the SP should not get hammered.
I have always said that this is a capital play, I really don't see much if any organic growth this year.
I was involved here when the offers came in and I could have taken £200k off the table in profit but held on thinking other offers of £2+ would arrive, which they didn't.
The resultant collapse in SP after that cost me a fortune so I am back in back once bitten and all that....
Oculus - I think you will find that the 75p the other week was a rise off the back of the boots deal rumour, which was never confirmed by RNS and as a result, and combined with the banking fiasco/inflation macro, was a perfect storm for shorts to hammer the price down and never paper sellers to bail out.
I hope that given the banks stabilising, a possible pause or .25% rise in interest rates, THG news pipeline and with April around the corner we should have found the bottom and start floating upwards.
Obviously the BIG unknown is whether Moulding will deliver another howler set of numbers with little strategic update, in which case I would probably sell my entire holding and short the stock as you can absolutely bet as night turns to day the price will drop like a stone. Lets hope its good news in April....
Ste, the only think leaking may be in your pants, there are no leaks ahead of April results unless you can substantiate?
Doubtlessly we are all very tired of THG sp movements but hold on until at least April, I think next results and strategy statements/forward guidance will be a real crossroads for PI's to stay in or write the whole thing off.
Good luck mate and try and breathe for the next 4 weeks.
Moody - You are clearly being suckered in by all the FUD in the media around a global banking collapse. Think about it, everyone on the planet is not going to suddenly withdraw all their cash in the bank and shove it under their mattress are they?
Governments and banks have been very quick off the mark to contain issues, and even the bankers do not want other smaller banks to go down (First Republic for example).
So get yourself a nice cuppa and relax.......
Sp28 - MBO would be a disaster right now, the share price currently does not support it in the least.
Price jumped circa 35% when the other buyout rumours came about last year so this would give an indicative price of 75p or so.
More likely capital event relisting etc for me, this would release the value of the parts from the current sum.
There will sure be some action in the coming months, hopefully sooner rather than later.
Thing is Anacott if they are bringing in activists to advise them on what to do they could have just asked this board last year and we could have advised MM and Co!
Anyway, its great news for a Sunday and surely this can only be positive in both the short and medium term.
Agree Oke,
So where is everyone's take on why shorts are increasing? I can only presume that they foresee another Moulding catastrophe wildly missing the numbers compound that with the WBA deal fall through??
THG is absolutely prime for Activists:
Multiple business units
Poorly performing/non-core areas of the business (Ondemand/spas etc)
Market completely in the dark around strategy (No/minimal RNS's and general poor communication)
Liquidity for the next 3 years
Ingenuity dark horse and all the options that could go with that
Still poor governance with Golden Share
It must scream shareholder value is completely locked in Mouldings coffee cupboard.
Activists will bring the hot water.....
Its not at all surprising retail is doing well (good for THG) as wages are increasing hence the slow impact of rising interest rates, albeit wage rises are running circa 1% below the rate of inflation (which is probably why the job market is booming as people now see a job wage as actually reasonable/good).
I wonder if the world will accept a higher base rate at say 3% moving forwards.
Devil and the deep blue sea however with the potential for another financial crash if banks start to tumble so whats the lesser of two evils is really the choice the FED has to make.
On the plus the current hikes are like a coiled spring which hasn't un-sprung yet so it may be that we see the latent impact of the rate rises anyway without the need for further increases but who knows.
I may take a look at shorting this today.
As stated here loads of news/rumours that they have huge losses on top of the rate of inflation etc. Even if they survive they will need a cash injection and shorting probably has little downside. Current price around £2.5o per share, it must fall to £1?