You can only do that if you are either showing significant improvement in terms of financials or a bold and concrete strategy for the business KNOWBODY.
Faith is misplaced otherwise and THG share will ride between 50p and £1 forever until something changes.
Last chance in my view for MM next week, even a solid set of results that are in line with expectations sprinkled with some sort of strategy moving forwards would do....
Reviewing MM's LI posts it is clear to me that he and the company are focussed on Protein and Ingenuity, Beauty is rarely if ever mentioned and my sense is that its be left adrift hence the poor performance vs peers.
Beauty is a drag on the business, sales reducing and virtually zero profit on circa £1bn of revenue is just bad business.
I would love to hear that Beauty is going to be sold to recapitalise the rest of the group, pay down debt and perhaps share buy backs, now that would be my decision in a heartbeat if I were MM.
I feel next Thursday is MM's last chance saloon, he has been promising jam tomorrow for ever and ALL shareholders want is a full English served up next week.
Another miss and no clear strategy and its back down the snakes and ladders game with the best strategy being buy in the 40's or 50's and hold for another bid to make a few quid for us PI's.
POLISHCAP - I agree its seems an unnecessary delay but on the plus side you would hope that the forward guidance that THG do give SHOULD be locked in as they have nearly half a years trading for the following financial year under their belt.
That is all goo of course unless MM provides near term guidance which then he historically has gone on to miss entirely....
SAGE - I hear you but I think its dangerous to compare companies and market caps, I read yesterday that Ocado's robotic division actually made a profit for the first time and is seen as the 'worlds absolute number 1' in terms of leading in this field hence the futures valuation and market cap.
Whilst Ingenuity has promise and USP's it is fledgling compared to the Ocado automation.
Also many on this board make the mistake, in my humble opinion, of valuation on the sum of the parts. Whilst I absolutely agree with this it is only relevant in a capital event scenario and the markets do not judge companies on possible future break ups/re-listings or sum of the parts until it actually happens. The market looks at financial performance and forward guidance.
The sum of the parts is the bonus that LTH here can enjoy when it comes out of the clear blue sky but until then THG is going to be valued on the basic metrics I have mentioned.
Unlocking THG by break up or capital event is the quickest way for LTH to see somewhere near a 'fair value' but until then its down to trading and guidance.
On Friday the opening THG share price reached 109p, this is pretty close to the Apollo estimated bid price of circa 115p and I suspect that this combined with the massive tech sell off, (driven partly by the NASDAQ rebalancing and Tesla and Netflix weaker than expected forward guidance) just triggered a general sell off of stocks that some holders deemed were close to a temporary 'peak'.
Naturally many here believe THG is no where near its 'fair' share price but lets put things in perspective and consider that the Ondemand RNS was not really new news and not material in respect of a £4m inflow vs a £2.25bn company. In light of no other significant news its not surprising that THG will now consolidate, perhaps around the 90's. perhaps lower, for now until there is either a big RNS or results in September as some take some profits and wait until the next event.
Manifesto - I agree with you.
I think the Qatar trip plus the property sale point towards raising cash for an MBO. If MM was savvy he would buy cheap shares on the open market and increase his stake and then seek backing from Qatar and maybe a few others to take off the market. His challenge would be it is then in his interest NOT to offer a decent price, however he is limited here as Institutions would not agree to a 'cheap MBO' and the company has underscored that £1.70 significantly undervalues the company.
He did state last year that £2.50 would have done a deal so maybe this IS the number that will eventually get agreed across the board. It will causes some losses but others and any II's who have averaged down profits so win some lose some.
I think most would like to get out of this share, despite the loyal following, spills and thrills.
It may even be that the Freeholds are handed over as part of a deal structure and the buildings purchased from MM at an agreed sum, again as part of a wrap around deal structure.
All depends on the offer, MM doesn't need the money, we need it more!
STE - I have to agree it is eyewatering that £8 a share was on the table back then with the Mould as CEO and Chair, the market, when it is frothy, will forgive almost anything and when its against you punish remorselessly!
Morning Licker.
Link below - this was covered on multiple media channels at the time last year....
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-10840093/Matt-Moulding-offer-3bn-ecommerce-business-THG.html
Personally if I were Apollo I may do a deal with Moulding as part of it but would look to get him out pretty quickly.
\Whilst THG is undervalued my opinion of him has changed from give him some space and let him flourish to he is a liability that is absolutely not fit to be a CEO of a large company.
If Apollo agree with me they may just want a deal done that gets him out and keep some of the more competent board members whilst installing a new CEO of their own choosing.
In this case I cant see how an offer could be less than Mouldings own statement to the market which was £2.50
I am still struggling with how THG could generate such a premium but as OKE says anything around £2 is still under the enterprise value let alone SOTP which Apollo could break up post acquisition and make a quick buck (or quick £1bn).
Bought another 70,000 shares over the last 2 weeks so LTH and firmly stand behind all those on this board hoping for a positive outcome.
Good advice PI
The only thing I would say is that the Apollo Due Diligence will be very top level at this stage, they will base a bid on this and ASSUME that everything behind the scenes is in order.
Only once a bid is accepted full DD will take place and if any skeletons are found then Apollo can either re-negotiate or walk away.
So the good news is that the bid will be disclosed to the market 'subject to DD' which means a re-rate and at least gives the PI's a chance to cash out.
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Goodtime - just throwing it out there for debate.
I guess in the end we all weigh up the information (which has been debated and shared brilliantly on the board), and pays yer money and makes yer choice!
Hi Hopin - Yes, Qube are more 'bot' driven but in terms of M&A aspects I am not convinced that 'AI' can evaluate the outcome, I suspect that's where the human analysts come in.
Its a really hard call as of course we can all quote deals that are over 100% premium and those that have been between 35% and 60% premium.
We should remember that the bid premium will be based on the SP PRIOR to Apollo interest and resultant SP increase to where it is today so must work on any premium based on 66p rather than current SP.
All, just for reference last year when the infamous £1.70 was offered the SP re-rated to around £1.35 then a week later it rose to £1.55ish.
It was after that first week that the price started a slow decline and then tanked faster and faster as the days went by after that culminating in losing over 30% on confirmation that communications and rebids were off the table.
Just worth keep an eye on the SP movements over next week.