I can easily see the FCA not allowing the reinstatement of the shares on the exchange which would be a great excuse for the BOD to blame someone else and put the business into liquidation.
As a LTH I cannot believe the pure incompetence of the BOD, its absolutely shocking, even a one man band business would have better management skills and certainly better financial wherewithall.
I can only hope that the share comes back, shorts close and I can decide how much of a loss i take as the price hopefully rises on shorts closing.
The BOD needs to be investigated after this and disqualified from serving as directors again. They should be totally ashamed of themselves and embarressed!
I can only guess he is in for the ride like every other holder, I don't know his net worth but this debacle would have wiped 100's of millions from him personally, why didn't he take action last year, maybe 3 years ago?!
I hold 55k shares, so no where near as many here, and was one of those who bought on the rise to 34p.
I think i have concluded to wait it out and have already written off the money.
I think you are reading this wrong BEAN. If a company is looking to raise significant debt on its balance sheet it is perfectly reasonable and expected that it will consult/communicate with stakeholders and bondholders.
I agree the RNS is a little vague but it certainly points to more lending rather than dilution in my reading. I suspect they have been forced to release this given the silence over the last few months and the recent share price decline.
April should really be the final outcome for PFC on this matter.
I would expect most to read this as the shorts dream of D4E is not an option which is great news. It was always my thoughts that with such a huge work pipeline banks and lenders would be most flexible, which is the likely outcome.
Shorts will have to start to throw in the towel now as dilution appears to be off the table.
Great time to buy more this morning!
morning all,
it does feel like the price is stable now at this level and i don't expect it to rise or fall much until there is the rns clarifying the funding situation. if the is a d4e then the price will drop and the smart traders will load up at this point as you can bet that the shorts are just waiting for one more big drop before closing their positions so i would expect the price to rebound very strongly and quickly even in the worst case sinareo given that going concern will be firming off the table in any event and the massive order book.
probably best for everyone trading cfd to remove stop losses as you will be very ****ed off if the sp drops rapidly and then rises even more rapidly on the day the rns drops.
of course if there is no d4e then the sp will just bound up and shorts will close unless they like to lose their profits. i am still amazed that some of those shorting this share could realise massive profits now but are holding out for another 10p or whatever they are hoping for and paying interest on the borrowed shares each day, madness!
Moring all, its been a while since I posted on here.
I am not currently a shareholder after been blasted again on the sp drop after the results before last plummet, and the ongoing behaviour of MM so I wish you all the best, those of you who are invested long here.
I wanted to share this with you, could be something to keep an ear out for and may have a positive impact on THG in the future (or negative, depends how you look at it)!
https://www.pharmexec.com/view/abbott-protality-high-protein-weight-loss-shake
GLA
I would work on the assumption of 5% and then we cant be disappointed. Whilst wages have risen in the last 18 moths companies have no adjusted their sale values upwards so perhaps between 5% and 10% is possible as long as PFC has been astute with their commercials.
In my experience lenders, especially banks, would take a very positive view on a strong order book as its not in their interests to pick the bones out of companies in administration so I feel pretty confident the bank will work with PFC to enable the performance guarantees to be achieved. I also have never read a situation where PFC has failed to deliver a project so they have a fairly decent track record.
I cant see a D4E situation at these prices, I would imagine that PFC will pull in every other option, including maybe a small short term loan from the largest shareholder, to resolve the balance sheet issue whilst projects bring home the bacon.
Hugely oversold, it always amazes me that hedge funds are too greedy and take up positions at stupid low share prices when they could de-risk, close out and make huge profits anyway. Hope they get burnt big time!
PFC are clearly looking to dovetail into the national strategy, look at the stats on GDP expectation doubling over the next 10 years to AED 3 Trillion.
https://www.pwc.com/m1/en/publications/emiratisation-survey-2023-the-retention-riddle.html
Posted yesterday:
'Developing local talent is fundamental to our model of local execution to global standards. By providing training, support, and hands-on project experience, we are developing homegrown talent in the UAE and contributing to the country’s Emiratisation strategy. I recently joined one of the theoretical training sessions at our UAE operating centre, where I spoke to the young people attending, and witnessed and shared their enthusiasm. I am confident that what they receive from us in training and support today, they will repay through their dedication to our partners and the industry in the future'
Morning all,
This is promising and may help to put a bottom into the sp until the next RNS on refinancing/business update:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/opec-sticks-2024-oil-demand-view-sees-more-growth-2025-2024-01-17/
Sj1313, no sweat, look, I hope you are absolutely right and that we see a very sharp, sustained rise in sp. We are all here for a collective reason, (I cant imagine many PI's are shorting pfc) so power to the people.
I agree, people sometimes think shorts are omnipotent but of course they are not and get it wrong as many times as longs. I would say that the big issue I have with shorts is that they are too greedy. Why open a short position at 20 odd pence?!!
For this they should absolutely burn in hellfire and pay the price!
Ultimately confirmation of a successful refinancing and additional contract guarantees will smash this upwards and as a byproduct shorts will close/cover their positions likely never to be seen again (like THG where short interest is now only 0.5%).
Saying ALL of that long term value will be, and always has been, dependant on PFC being consistently profitable and making a sensible commercial margin on all these new contract wins. If not, and like THG, a jam tomorrow company is never going to succeed in the long term. Profit is sanity and all that.
Si1313 - Nice to see some offence juvenile remarks from yourself this morning. I am not comparing THG and PFC as business, obviously they are completely different in the markets they operate and value of future order book etc etc.
I am stating that if you think there will be a short squeeze you are totally deluded.
The price will of course rise as short positions close but more in line with the effect shorts closing had on THG.
I have said many times on the THG chat that a short squeeze requires 20% plus of the share float to be short. There will be no short squeeze with Petrofac guys, its that simple. Like THG an orderly exit will occur which will slowly rise the share price over time so the idea of a 'meme squeeze' needs to be really put to bed.
It was good to see the director buys, my only comment on this is that the value in cash terms of the buys is pretty small so the market may view this as more 'token' albeit better than nothing hence the retrace after the announcement.
For the record I now have 51k of stock here and adding on the dips where I feel appropriate.
Hopefully markets rally a bot today and tomorrow, worst start to a new year for markets in decades so can only improve IMO.
What will be interesting is to see how long Kelso keep their remaining stake in THG, If the next update is as poor as the last 8 then a turning point, and perhaps a point on consideration for PI's, is if Kelso bails.
The sentiment on this board has fundamentally shifted to the negative and lets be honest with ourselves MM would never still be in post if he ran perhaps any other listed company given the drop in shareholder value, shrinking the revenues and making a loss whilst investing in other small fry and to a degree unrelated side projects.
Most investors invest in the entrepreneur, whats different here is that we have a deranged, ranting entrepreneur but a fantastic business (certainly in nutrition). Currently these metrics are the wrong way around and the only way this will change is to cut off the head of the snake and get a proper board and CEO in place to make THG a place where new money flows in, sentiment does a 180 and shareholders can see a real world return by way of earnings and growth ideally or a significant corporate event to jumpstart the SP.
For me its so simple:
Sell beauty which would pay off all debt and recapitalise the business, possible buy back shares to get the SP moving.
Cut all but maintenance spend on Ingenuity, scale back hiring and reduce headcount, keep as just an internal resource.
Relist Nutrition as stand alone business (possibly US listing) , use some cash raised from Beauty sale for acquisitions and focus on the strategy to grow Nutrition verticals in healthy food at a much faster rate.
A £1bn revenue nutrition business generating say £150m must be worth £3bn at the lower end or circa 3.5 x's the current share price.
This could all be achieved in a year to 18 months.
Sometimes you have to cut your losses.
Ingenuity is clearly not delivering, trouble with that is when you hang your hat on the future companies growth prospects and the thing you are hanging your hat on is a money burning chocolate hat stand then its time to rethink.
Just a matter of how harsh the drop is I suppose, unless the conference calls salvages some positive forward guidance.
Generally positive and in the ball park.
Concern is ingenuity - massive drop in revenue which makes me question if this is a white elephant like the metaverse that needs mothballing to focus on the core business of nutrition and beauty.
Forgetting the sum of the parts a fair market cap given the indicated EBITDA etc is probably around £1.3bn to £1.5bn
Therefore as long as results are as expected and decent forward guidance is issued (or a bombshell is dropped), then probably a 14% to 25% rise dependant on the strength of the conference call if results are reasonable.