In the instance of possible hostile takeover I would imagine insiders and holding II's will counter bid to take private.
Still, that wont really help us unless your average if in the 50p range.
The mantra must be MOULDING - get the FING share price up mate!
Solid - If we see the strategy points you have suggested then that in itself would be massive (and it would mean the announcement that the GS is going early).
In terms of numbers THG has a notorious track record, so MAYBE just maybe they will surprise most of us who are not expecting much on the upside.
If all this comes to pass shorts will exit back to 1% or so and the re-rate would be £1+ on the day IMO.
Good strategy and poor results will probably prop the share up around the 70's.
No strategy and poor results, well that will be a day trip down memory lane until the low 50's or 40's are revisited...
OKE - It could be bad for the shorts but it will be an orderly exit will the SP rising gradually rather than a squeeze unfortunately.
Still, as long as its blue that's fine, we have all waited this long!
Its gonna be one hell of an update if even half of Kelso's recommendations are announced!
Not only would this give us all a short term spike in SP but the shorts would have to re-evaluation their positions and likely close them (albeit they may open them again at a higher SP later so you can never cut all the heads of the hydra).
I would say that the 'short squeeze' that many keep referring to will just not happen. A company needs 20% or above of its issued capital to be leant out for a squeeze to occur plus a high level of days to cover. Neither of these apply to THG.
OKE - that's for clarifying the R&D is in there, they are on the ball in that respect at least!
Lets see on the splits where the losses sit per division. One problem may be that IF Ingenuity was delisted and relisted in the US they would lose a large amount of that £500m tax loss benefit so worth bearing that in mind.
OKE - We can assume that Ingenuity will have the lions share of those tax losses?
I wonder if THG has claim R&D relief against the Ingenuity development as this would amounts to many millions in cash back. I cant imagine they haven't done this to be fair but its not detailed anywhere in the accounts?
OKE - Been saying this for ages, its basically a cash 'gift' of £500m against future profits, added to the SOTP and a change in Macro the winds are blowing in the right direction and picking up speed.
Lets hope April doesn't undo this momentum.
PI - I agree, AI/bots have their functions, especially in taking over repetitive tasks and carrying out long or complex calculations. AI is also excellent at analysing longer term trends and extrapolating data and outcomes based on this, again very useful.
But for all other short term 'human' events or world events for that matter they cannot see these and as they cannot input these variables AI will never calculate probabilities on outcomes or share prices in this situation.
PI - Good article and true for mid to long term trading, but like all this talk around AI I don't buy it all wholeheartedly.
AI/bots cannot foresee capital events, they cannot predict 'black swan events' as humans are by nature slightly unpredictable. THG is a good example of where the numerous nuances around listings, divisional separations, SOTP and many more would not be analysed by AI.
Therefore bots may edge markets over a wide time span using pure data but traders and humans in the market will always be key.
I will give you a good example of AI vs human:
During WW2 the German submarine wolfpacks used the Enigma codes to communicate and sink British shipping highly successfully. One day the Brits captured a German sub and cracked the Enigma code thereby knowing where the German subs will next strike.
Churchill on being informed of this naturally diverted ships away from the Wolfpack hunting zones (which is exactly what AI would do), BUT he also used his human brain to send a percentage of shipping, and men, directly into the areas where the German subs were waiting for them and to certain death.
He did this so that the Germans would not cotton on quickly that their codes had been broken and in doing so saved 1000's of lives in the process.
That's the difference in a nutshell, AI would not logically compute that strategy so it has vulnerabilities and we should all have a cuppa and not listen too much to the AI is going to take over the world BS.
Great share on the Kelso RNS!
All the points raised are what all of us here have been shouting about for the last 12 months or so. There have been times when I questioned myself and maybe all of us thinking, maybe we are wrong and the THG boards actions are normal/correct.
But NO!
We were right, Kelso is right and THG have to listen.
For example, myself and a few others in the last few weeks were calling for 'material news' to be RNS'd and not just posted on social media, Kelso make this point.
What is frustrating, after readings Kelso's recommendations this morning, is that the suggestions are bloody obvious and that is a concern that the whole THG board seemingly have not considered any of them in recent past - how is that possible?!
The only other thing now is that I swore I would not add any more THG shares to my portfolio but after reading the Kelso thread tis morning I cant believe I am tempted again....
OKE - If the shorts are doing any naked selling then how would this provide liquidity for Sparta?
Also from what I can find THG has 1.3bn shares outstanding so plenty large enough pot to draw from (unless i have rtead this data wrong)?
STOCK - Agree, not 100% sure on the numbers bit if they are bad I still see a hammering but then again BooHoo managed a brief turnaround after the strategy announcement trumped the numbers and even the outlook so lets see. For me if the worst is realised it will be the size of the hammering that is the stress test.
In 2022 THG dropped 33% in a day and in doing so tested LTH resolve, wiped out PI traders and anyone with any shares on leverage.
My hope is that after April results and the divisional splits THG should move forwards with less turbulence and the SP will move more in-line with performance.
This assumes that IR will do a better job of communicating to the market between quarterly updates and ideally I would be saying to them flood the market with positive news, significant wins and partnerships and keep up the social media narrative.
If this is done then like Alibaba whose price has been impacted by a very negative USA vs China narrative then THG should float back up to a 'true worth' valuation which must sit at somewhere in the range of £2 to £4.