post by nat81 - IPSA value at 23p13 Jan 2013 18:36
The following is a post by nat 81 on another forum (link provided). I haven't checked out his maths as getting ready for my trip abroad but dyor etc.
"should rerate on turbine sale, with valuation cash/asset of 13p alone, and total value for IPSA could be 23p?
http://www.worldstocks.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1925&p=23484#p23484
IPSA is valued below its assets at the moment due to its tight cash. However, should the sale of the remaining turbines is finalised this month, it will be the trigger for rerating, which will make it debt free company, and will have surplus of cash after the working capital requirement.
Also, since the plant in south africa is already generating revenue, it is expected that it will be in profit/cash positive later in the year (ie no more fundraising/placing)
calculation:
the remaining turbine sale total proceeds = GBP 19.4m
proceeds Will be used to pay off all debts totalling = GBP 15.8
(page 4 of the report)
so, the company will have assets (and debt free) worth
= net cash after sale of turbine = 19.4-15.8 = GBP 3.6m
= other assets (property/plants) FMV worth = GBP 9.7m
so, total assets 3.6+9.7 = GBP 13.3m
and this excludes any attributable valuation to its revenue being generated by its operation in South africa, which in itself could be worth 10p more (i havent done any proper calculation on revenue in south africa).
so, total value of IPSA would be 13.3m+10m = GBP 23.3m (will be higher should they ramp up revenue in the plant)
while current market cap only around GBP 4m (at 4p sp)
this will rerate big time once the sale of turbine is finalised and the company is debt free.
let me know if I need to revise my calculation above.
based on Interim result sep 2012
http://www.ipsagroup.co.uk/images/Interim_Results_2012.pdf
http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:IPSA.L&display=discussion