Member Info for bonker99

U.S. Crude-Oil Production Falls to Lowest of 2023, at 12.2 Million Barrels a Day -- EIA

DOE: US Crude Oil Stocks -0.6M Bbl In Wk; Seen -2.2M Bbl

U.S NEW HOME SALES (MOM) (JUN) ACTUAL: -2.5% VS 12.2% PREVIOUS; EST -5.0%

+25bps and not a bps more ...

When you're playing with the US govt then you tend to know which side your bread is buttered on and do/say what you're told to do /say.

Remember this:

https://mw.usembassy.gov/the-department-of-state-begins-construction-on-new-u-s-embassy-in-lilongwe-malawi/

That 12-month shout is assuming Gold goes sideways over the next year of course - if it blows up to my initial $2.4k target then you could see 40p here in Q3.

Who knows what happens next in the macro but the prospect of some Black Swan action (a White Swan for us) is pretty high IMO.

Rates are already breaking the housing market - I have direct evidence of that here in the UK - so they can't go much/any higher yet inflation is still strong and everyone can see it ...

Then there's the BRICS action from August - that's hardly going to strengthen the Dollar ...

It's still a 12-month 3x mate - if you have better elsewhere then let me know.

https://twitter.com/bonker_99/status/1684101804575936512?s=20

Topped-up again - I'm still feeling it.

Noise noted ;)

H2 costs are usually higher because of the Q3 rainy season so no surprise there.

H2 is a loss at $1.7k AISC and $1.9k sale price??

Losing money on the very early prod from Kouroussa is hardly likely - it will quite reasonably be at a much higher AISC than $1k for the first quarter but I doubt it'll be costing $2k per oz, $1.5k perhaps.

Well you're almost subtle - I'll give you that ;)

Don't worry about the Fed - they're all on-board ...

To that end - the IMF are now allowing countries to settle loans in Yuan instead of Dollars so if that doesn't open people's eyes to how the banks are driving de-Dollarisation to keep inflation boosted (by pumping the price of commods) then I don't know what will.

Not selling chap but GL ;)

Beat me to it - wow they're desperate ...

Well the numbers are so good and outlook so bright that I'd be happy with 80% :)

Take note of Bushy's point though - if they drop "nameplate achieved" or even just confirmation of an increase to, say 80% in August then you know what's going to happen to the SP - realisation of promised potential with 20p the lowball target.

The comments on Kouroussa are interesting to me - I don't know what people were thinking when they were suggesting that it should be at nameplate by now, that's just nonsense but 2/3 of the way there already? I'm thrilled.

Again, we don't need expectation-beating news from here to get the win - time is on our side and the numbers that count are all going up, record gold price yield and all.

Silly Billy - I suspect the gold price may have something to do with that - yes?

Morning guys.

That US Senate bill is something else - no wonder Cotec are all over us - they're smart, moneyed and connected ........

This tax credit stuff is right up Elon Musk's alley.

It's gonna be big.

Yes, as noted earlier - an Ascending Triangle back to 20p with breakout to upper 20s+ as early as Q4 this year.

The triangulation is superb on the chart - the market knows the score but will price in all eventualities at the same time of course.

I pointed out how much I liked 12p the other week - because of the c30p gap-fill requirement on the weekly chart - that's now 13s for me because, despite what some may suggest, time is very much on our side here so immediate/short-term shakes aside, I would expect teens to be impossible to break here as there's too much money seeing the same thing here over the next 6-12 months but I'd love it if they dropped her again of course :)

It's a 200k oz pa producer for £80m with another big asset that's likely to be sold during the next 12 months.

It'll come - same as MKA - the fundy ducks start lining up and all of a sudden you can't generate genuine sells of shares and the price is forced to bottom out/move up over time ...

I've actually been attracted to debt-laden assets this past year because we're in a strong inflation era so funding expansion of the recovery of inversely inflation-sensitive assets is the place to be.

Two assets do well at times like these - oil to drive the inflation (hello HBR) - Gold to offset the disastrous levels of public debt repayments which is soon to be fully 5% of the US entire GDP - and climbing rapidly - as "Central Banks" pretend to fight the inflation they need more than anyone else to continue their money counterfeiting ponzi scheme.

Can you tell I grew up in the 70s? ;)

Quite - I did flag the "market disappointment opp" yesterday ...