Member Info for BodRuncie

Awesome update, great news.

I recently rewatched an investor presentation and thought how quietly confident mgmt seemed.

pharmhall, i'm not sure why you are talking about ebit vs ebitda, as i was talking about net profit (free cash flow) vs ebitda.

and i'm not sure why you disagree with my statement that trx is not net profitable. this is clearly seen in the annual reports, as well as forecasts for 2024.

look at any metric of actual cash generation: eps, net cash (debt). these were negative for 2023, and are forecast to be negative during 2024. net debt is rising, and is forecast to rise in 2024 and even 2025. can you explain to me how can trx have negative eps if it is net profitable? why is debt rising, and forecast to rise further, if it is generating positive free cash flow?

if you think ebitda is a real measure of cash generation, you should probably take another look at what ebitda really is. it seems you are confusing the ability of a company to generate profit purely from the cost of sales (ebitda) vs the ability of a company to actually generate cash from its entire operation.

here are some quotes to assist you:

"buffett believes that cash is the lifeblood of any business and that a company’s ability to generate and manage cash is a critical determinant of its value. fcf, unlike ebitda, directly focuses on the actual cash generated by a company’s operations. it considers not only operating profitability, but also capital expenditures and changes in working capital, which are essential for understanding a company’s cash-generating ability."

taken from: https://focusbankers.com/whats-the-best-measurement-ebitda-or-free-cash-flow/

or scroll down the page in this link to have a look at this handy summary:

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/brianferoldi_ebitda-vs-fcf-whats-the-difference-ebtida-activity-7129081903650893826-0rgb

which states that "ebitda does not provide an accurate insights into a company's ability to generate cash"

or charlie munger: "every time you see ebitda, you should substitute "bull**** earnings".

A large holder just reduced from 14% to 5% as per today's RNS.

That is a lot of downward pressure now relieved.

Pharmhall, it's the opposite. Implicit in the statement that TRX is EBITDA positive is that it is not net profitable, and therefore not cash generative. The company currently has a negative PE ratio.

They aren't generating free cash flow, but the RNS states they have sufficient cash (reserves) to fund the company until expansion.

That high revenue- low margin customer must have been around 5% margins?

Although painful in the short term, good riddance to it. The busy fool model isn't suited to ITX or AIM.

I'm a LTH here, still v optimistic about the future, but it looks like it could be 6 months of waiting for the next TU figures to ensure ITX are back on track.

Of course, if there were an IMC presentation which fleshed out the details, or a contract win RNS, then it's game on.

Yes, thanks for sharing.

I like reading what actual scientists and surgeons have to say about the product.

I'm not really sure why anyone is still shorting this?

There isn't a realistic chance of any meaningful price drop from the current share price, but they run the risk of getting caught in the squeeze for the exit.

It's just dead money sitting there, at these prices.

The risk/reward for shorting is poor.

Such a protracted dd process just for a possible bid at 135p!?

No. I'd vote against it.

Agreed.

And hidden amongst that is an unofficial forecast of circa £69m revenue next year, based on visible revenues due to land in FY25. A 10% revenue increase, with improving margins.

Https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/KINO/final-results/16558045

Numbers for the underlying business look fantastic. It's a shame the DCB has swallowed up all that profit, but that is all in the past now. The fact that the £12.2m could be paid out over such a short period of time, all from existing cash reserves, shows just how much free cash KINO are generating.

And it's great news that KINO might have a deal for the final 2026 DCB Kent project. Get rid of it all, and try to recoup as much as they can. This marks the end of the debacle, and KINO can march onwards.

With DCB worries now costed and accounted for, there should be no concerns holding back the share price. This is looking good for 100p by the H1 25 Trading Update.

I'm guessing PH have extrapolated the slower than anticipated uptake of Gen3, and expect FY Breakeven to be pushed back a year. PMcG has recently reiterated guidance of FY25 Breakeven, so we'll have to see who blinks first.

But I presume the PH figs don't account for any new contract wins, or any increase on minimum contract value, so I would take it as an (unlikely) worst case scenario.

Yes, great set of results. And will we see the same H2 weighting that we saw last year?

(according to last year's results, the H2 weighting is due to HNWI's financial year-end transactionary requirements)

If so, the FY25 results should be ahead of expectations and this is what will send it beyond 60p.

If you're not clear what Labour plan to do, then read their manifesto. The only people (repeatedly) saying they don't know what Labour plan to do are from the far right because sowing confusion is the only policy discussion they have.

Far right and far left Govts are terrible for running economies, and we can see that in this country as the outgoing Govt have lurched further to the right and our country is in tatters. We can see this in the lack of confidence developing over the French elections.

This is great news for MKA, and another piece of the puzzle slotting into place, but the market wants to see revenue £££.

Until MKA can show numbers in black & white that means it doesn't need a fundraise, the share price will bumble along. That's just the UK investing environment atm, same for every company.

Sorry for your loss, Thordon.

I'm guessing NR picked up most of what Canaccord were dropping. There were a few large trades reported over the past few days, usually at bottom end of the Bid, with no corresponding buys reported, but the share price has hardly budged.

The trades bringing this down today are all little nervous PIs p*ssing their pants.

Just for balance, there were 3 separate director share purchases this year, two in March and one in April. By that point, I think they would have known whether the full year results were on track to be good or bad before buying shares on the open market.

As we all know, they line their pockets with plenty of unearned shares, so to spend their own money to buy more at these prices suggests that they think good news is coming.

It finally feels like a corner is being turned with ARCM. The JV with Anglo is geniinely exciting, and the prospects are fantastic. Regulatory hurdles are cleared, a major mining co. is on board, the rainy season in Zambia is done, and the venture can properly kick off now.

The other drilling campaign in Botswana looks promising too, and when Zambia takes off Arc can cycle some of that money into developing it without having to raise funds.

I'm looking forward the regular updates. This should be a source of good news flow, and one key indicator that the tide has turned will be the increased presence of shorters and bitter ex-insiders on this board, working themselves into a froth!

:)

Timetable of news in the short term:

- July 2nd. Court hearing to cancel the share premium account, freeing up £12.28m of distributable reserves. Expecting an RNS on July 3rd to confirm this and state what they intend to do with the cash.

- late July. Trading Update?

A clever move by the board. It won't grab any headlines, but it shows what a shrewd bunch they are with their business dealings and keeping a real eye on costs, and you can extrapolate that to the rest of the business.

It's much better to pay off the mortgage and own the asset at the end of it, rather than pay the same amount in rent each month and end up with nothing.

Take care of the pennies...