Member Info for BodRuncie

The 2 main drivers of daily share price fluctuations are fomo and fear.

There is no fomo with DKL, so the MMs can only go with fear, trying to get despairing PIs to sell up.

It's why all AIM shares drift down when there is no news.

Yes, there is a placing tomorrow, and 10000000000000000000 shares are going to be issued at a price of 0.0000000000000000001p.

The directors, who gave made 8 separate share purchases on the open market since the start of the year, will look like fools.

I'd better sell up now. Thanks for your concern.

(Accidentally posted too soon)

I presume the customer would just revert to the previous (pre-ITX) formulation, so wouldn't really take any time to change back.

Maybe the cost of old ingredients came down and used that as leverage against ITX?

I'm not holding my breath for the customer to come back, but I would like to see the lost low-margin profit replaced by higher margin beauty and hygiene sales.

I p

I'm happy with the steady progress being made. Growing the international business and a progressive dividend policy.

Don't care where it's coming from (dburton, telegram, boiler room), just wake me up when it's over.

I'm so jaded (and underwater) I'll just wait for this pump n dump to pass...

Someone forward-selling their placing shares?

They become exercisable in August 2024, so no sale pressure until then at least.

Most PIs look at the numbers (revenue, dividend yield, etc...) and that biases their view of the company. They pay too much attention to the day-to-day or hour-to-hour movements of the share price, which is in turn influenced largely by other PIs.

But the biggest indicator of the company's value and future prospects is a section without bottom-line numbers attached to it. Have a re-read of this and then think why the company included it in the results:

• Value proposition for human challenge trials has been reinforced by recent positive outcomes:

• Pfizer's ABRYSVO™ became one of the first RSV vaccines to receive FDA approval in May 2023 having received Breakthrough Designation, following an PII HCT conducted by hVIVO

• At least two biotech clients received FDA Fast Track and/or Breakthrough Designation

And couple that with this statement:

• Upcoming move to the new state-of-the-art facility, which is largely funded by key clients, will increase revenue potential and position the Company for further margin improvements

If you know anything about biomedical research, you'll know how much time, money and other resources are spent on developing pipelines of medicines. And if hVivo are able to showcase that (so far) 3 clients have received Fast Track or Breakthrough Designations following data generated using hVivo's unique offering, then that is going to have huge ramifications for other biotech companies.

We can already see how important this is, in the second statement I highlighted. The new facility was *largely funded by key clients*. I challenge any PI here to show me another example of this happening.

There is a huge demand for hVivo's unique offering, by companies with very deep pockets.

Sure, sell out at 29p and try to time the market getting back in. Sure, complain that the dividend is 0.2p instead of 1p. But I guarantee that the IIs who were desperate to get in at 28p won't be reading today's RNS with the same focus that PIs are.

I think the board should have to defer their salaries until this mess is fully sorted, and use that cash instead of a fundraise.

Terrible management should suffer.

I added to my holding today in my ISA with some of my new allowance.

The risk/reward at this price is too good to pass up.

I am a patient investor, I'm looking for big returns over the medium to long-term, so I don't mind if the noisy herd aren't here.

As per today's RNS, 4 PDMRs exercised options for shares and sold sufficient amount to cover their tax liabilities.

This was not a trivial amount: 184,000 shares.

So, apart from going ex-div, this might be one reason why there has been share price weakness over the past few days. In light of this, I would expect the downtrend has ended (ceteris paribus...) and it's unlikely to go below 200p.

£25k of shares is a decent amount.

PDMR buying at that level is always a good sign.

Thanks for that. So now I'm wondering where the discrepancy between the two figures comes from.

Good on you.

So many PIs look at high share prices and buy in, while kicking themselves for not buying at the lows, but when faced with the opportunity to buy low they don't take it because it's unpopular.

In other news: 90% of PIs lose money on the stock market.

I'm just going through the recent HY24 Trading Update and spotted something, and wondering if I was missing something?

PMcG states that trading is still in line with FY2024 consensus estimates, which are listed as Revenue $66.3m and Cash position $26.1m.

FY24 Revenue of $66.3m would give a 14% increase over FY23 revenue.

FY24 Cash of $26.1m is an *increase* of $3.9m over the cash position at 31st Dec 23 ($22.2)

So, according to the figures in the recent RNS, and despite the cash burn rate, SEE are expecting to be *increasing* the cash position during H2?

Do I have this right?

I wouldn't count on it :)

REAT is a great company and is heading in the right direction, but it flies under the radar of most PIs, so it's better suited for longer term investors.

Why the big drop?

The shares went ex-div on 28th March.

This is basic stuff.

Yes, this news is worrying, and a disaster for the share price, but it sounds as if the deal was terminated from Itaconix's side.

If John Shaw was only concerned with the share price, he could have signed a new deal, kept the revenue numbers up, wouldn't have to deal with the fallout, and he could have kept looking for higher margin deals with new customers elsewhere.

(This post is for long-term investors. If you're a short-term trader then tough luck, you got screwed)

So why would the CEO terminate a deal with a customer which represents 33% of the company's revenue?

We only have supposition at this point, and your views will be coloured to a significant extent by how much the share price has fallen (which is likely all driven by PI sentiment), but I think tend to believe John when he talks about taking a short-term hit for greater growth later on.

It might delay breakeven/profit projections by a year, but if it means that ITX will generate greater margins in 12 months' time then it will be worth it.

If ITX are to grow as we all hope, they will be constrained by production capacity, and it will require more money to extend capacity. By losing a significant lower margin customer, that frees up capacity for higher margins, thus increasing profitability and delaying the need to invest capital into production facilities.

What it comes down to is whether you trust John and the board to be acting in the company's best interests. Ignore the short-term hit to the share price (again, based purely on PI sentiment), and consider whether this was a smart decision for the longer-term running of the company.

One more thought: if the share price hadn't dropped, how would that change your perception of the RNS? Given that the share price drop is all PIs selling, the drop becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.