Member Info for Bmhltd

Awesome stuff.

Suspect we are going to be in the firing line for a few big pharma companies & will be having meetings acccordingly.

My bet is either Johnson & Johnson or Merck will triumph and make an offer we cannot refuse, potentially post RR data, but expect many will be contemplating offers, including another big hitter in BMS.

Depending on when a formal offer may come, there is likely to be counter offers in my opinion if the offer is below $5Billion USD. C.£40 per share.

Sounds like I’m ramping, but I genuinely believe that the scope of Bex will eventually be above keytruda which generated $27Bn sales in 2024 alone.

There is a chance in my opinion, that we could go for multiples of these 2 behemoths want the prize as badly as I suspect.

Out only weakness is our cash position, which if strengthened at a discount, I will be piling all in if I deem it a sufficient enough cash runway to see us to the end of the year, which would in my opinion, guarantee a big offer.

I also wouldn’t rule out a raise done at a premium, given the proximity to P2 readout which will be the definitive factor.

Also could be a monster partnership / LD but personally would prefer a mega buyout.

Either way for me, buying now or after any raise is going to be chump change in the grand scheme of things and either route will see multiples of current SP, data permitting. (Which I believe is done).

GLA

I hope not, there market cap is tiny!

ATB

Looking better on the Nasdaq.

Big week next week for Faron.

Coverage from a huge and important audience at the very minimum.

GLA & have a great weekend

Https://x.com/fiercepharma/status/1876697813578584412?s=46

Note the 3 things which need to be in place for the confirmatory trail for AA.

Completion date

provide sufficient assurance to expect timely completion of the trial.”

And lastly, enrollment should have started.

A completion date is easily extrapolated given we are already recruiting and dosing in the front line poplulation.

Thus the last one of enrollment has already started.

The mid one is the only one which could be debated wrt our ability to fund it.

However the moment a big pharma company partners / takeover with / of Faron, everything is covered off.

The data is already there as I keep saying. This is a rarity to find in biotechs. Which is why I am so surprised we are still sat at this market cap so close to the RR readout.

As always DYOR & GLA

If there was to be an announcement, perhaps the only question is if Bex will be partnered in a single / multiple indications or entirely owned by a big pharma company?

If it’s the latter I’m sure JPM would be happy for Faron and their team to a significant part of the presentation on the new owners acquisition. Particularly Miss Holman

Indeed Sax, the conference & its implications should not be overlooked, yet are by far any guarantee of anything material, yet exposure is surely extremely positive given Bex’s data, significance, broad application & closeness to c.$3 billion of revenues in for the US & MDS alone, imo, beginning this year post RR readout & potentially a little more survival data.

It’s as clear cut as it gets, and will unquestionably extend lives in a zero options remaining scenario…

Best & good luck all…

Calm before the monumental re-rate with a bit of luck,

Very Interesting that Faron have been invited to the JPMorgan Healthcare conference next week…

Let’s see what that brings………

Juho will be correct.

Just smth I missed. And thought worth sharing.

Still 5x premium to todays price & good to see coverage from HC.W

Correction, it was a reiteration of the price target with a slightly amended note AFAIK…

Https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/promising-clinical-trial-results-and-strategic-developments-position-faron-pharmaceuticals-for-accelerated-approval-1034121174

Patrick Trucchio of HC Wainwright initiated coverage of Faron earlier in December setting a price target of £10.00 per share….

They’re waking up….

Missed this one..

I’d call the SP a mild simmer given what Bex is worth to big pharma with first revenues likely in 2025, unthinkable an accelerated approval isn’t given post RR readout with overall survival trending 3x longer.

Recall, forty seven failed due to survival data- we have that licked already, more or less, it would almost take instant death in remaining patients to not show statistically significant improvement- exceptionally unlikely. I suspect most patients in the R/R population are now at least first-dosed.

Then we have the front-line population which doubles the total addressable market. Given the differentiated mechanism of action, and conventional wisdom that drugs taken sooner lead to better / longer effect, I’d say we are looking at potential TAM of $6Bn pa, set to rise with disease incidence increase.

It’s the crazy high figures in Hemo, where they are little to no further options that will make this highly sought after by BP & unlikely we can remain a partner, at least for MDS, imo. Unless it’s a monster upfront payment & revenue / cost share on the P3.

But then we still have all the other potential hemo indications, solid tumours & autoimmune.

I can only see Merck making an early play here in what could extend and expand Keytruda patentability. The world’s top grossing drug.

But then we will have the likes of BMS & Pfizer amongst many others very keen and with huge firepower likely showing their hand imo.

This is why I think the likelihood is a full buy out, with the starting gun being fired sooner rather than later.

4-8x revenues = 24bn -$48bn about the going rate BP pay for mid-late stage acquisitions. Bearing in mind that is just MDS…..

Hoooooold for goooooold.

GLA

She’s running very well this morning guys & gals + 10% in Helsinki.

Suspect sooner or later she will just keep on runnning.

For me this is worth far more than Forty Seven ever was and we know that was taken out for $4.9Bn, the utility of Bex is far broader and wider than just hemo with auto immune disorders & solid tumours in the cross hairs.

Safety done & dusted, overall survival done & dusted RR rates superb; all data way above the benchmark for approvals.

Expect a bidding war here & potentially a move prior to the RR readout

Hold for gold

GLA & AIMO.

For me, we must be entering the end game for Faron.

Juho clearly stated we are in a dynamic, fast changing scenario wrt fundraising and what’s required. Clearly talking to multiples partners & a formal bid becomes inevitable.

At which point it will have to be disclosed, and will likely be in the billions given 2.7B in revenues commencing in the next few months.

The FDA will be ethically compelled to approve this treatment prior to P3, one way or another.

Likely some games along the way but I personally feel we are very close to a £3-5Bn (28.50-47.50 p/s) offer for the whole company, given the M&A landscape and Farons compelling data.

Sounds insane but I don’t see how it goes for less….

GLA and hold TIGHT!!!!!!

Welcome back Sax.

Back to rainy, windy Blighty.

Big things coming here. In the latest Finland / Inderes presentation, Juho says they are now eye to eye on the market potential. Which on an incidence basis is $2.9 billion pa, just for MDS in the US alone.

Many big pharma pay multiples of the market value for this kind of potential many years in the future.

Then there is the likelihood of going front line and into AML and beyond just in the hemo space.

Suspect they see aligning with a specific partner and may soon announce, by latest at the JPM conference in Jan is my best guess.

Noavrtis recently paid $1 billion upfront for a 60/40 deal…..

LFG!!!

MSD

Starting to move better in Helsinki.

Suspect Mm’s filling orders, would likely be expensive to short this given low free float and sticky hands.

Let’s hope for a re-rate as the reality of a Keytruda mk2 which is also effective in blood cancers, and turns cold solid tumours hot, dawns on MDS & they move in with a $15B bid.

We can dream.

Happy weekend all

If you consider that forty seven was bought for $4.9B by Gilead, and Bex has a far broader applicability with a ton more safety data, I’d say that’s very wise works Sax 👍🏻

Bought more this morning at 1.68

No cash left to try now 🤣

The response rates are bearing out as previously across a broader population giving greater confidence in the asset being approved given it is currently trending at response rates 4x greater than current standard of care. Ie it’s a no brainer. More over a further patient has gone for curative therapy facilitated by Bexmab.

Clearly multiple big pharma partners are interested in the asset, paying for the P3 trial and sharing the spoils.

To show strength in negotiations it is wise to be willing to raise to extend the cash runway and get the best deal. Suspect the SP will look very different post capital markets day as the market size is spelled out and confidence in this being a cancer-agnostic immunotherapy.

Shorters playing games here imo. Expect a deal before Xmas personally with a serious upfront cash injection, a major pharma partner and the cash and share price to go the solid tumour route alone- IF an offer doesn’t come in that’s too good to refuse to swallow the whole company.

Raging buy. Ignore the ST volatility and trolls

Closer than ever to approvals and cash which big pharma will fight for…

Capital markets day tomorrow at 1pm BST.

Updated survival data expected probably via RNS in the morning. Perhaps with further updated Bexmab data and something on the solid tumour clinical development plan.

Could be a great day.

GLA