RE: Heights27 Jun 2025 05:50
If we take just the r / r HR MDS USA only population, at a conservative 4000 patients, multiplied by 12 months at the Rytelo price, indicated by Ralph Hughes’ market research at CMD day of $25,000 per month x 12 ( Conservative given 13.4 months survival), that is 4000 x $300,000 = $1.2Bn USD, just for r/r population in the USA alone on an incidence based model, which is lower than a prevalence model which factors in existing patients, as opposed to new r/r patients per year and ignores the rest of the world.
As mentioned prior, the likelihood of Bexmarilimab ‘not working’ in earlier stage patients is, in my eyes, for the birds, given the conventional wisdom that a treatment that works given earlier = better results, longer treatment time, more revenue and opens up a market 3 times bigger on a very conservative basis again in the USA alone.
On a pharma industry takeover multiplier, at end of phase 2 of 4-6x sales, if we take the mid-case of 5 that equates to $6bn USD, in r/r and US alone.
This isn’t going to be a hard sell given the lack of alternative options on the market, that being zero, and such a rapidly deteriorating illness post-HMA failure, especially now Venetoclax is out of the picture post-Verona.
This also, again, only factors in r/r and US numbers alone, furthermore it offers no value for AML, other hemo malignancies, solid tumours or autoimmune diseases, which is a monster market where billions are paid for pre-clinical candidates.
Bexmab data presentation postulated 164 patients for AA in the FL, likely AA at the mid point for R/R so following Response Rate data at 82 patients and full approvals for FL following c.360 patients, exact numbers on June 2nd webcast via Petri Bono’s segment.
As Juho stated, the high value hemo-oncology market in MDS & AML is crying out for something new, and we have it, especially if you understand the mechanism of action of Bex and the broad clever 1 positive population in Hemo-oncology.