Member Info for BlueWiley

None it would appear Mr Marroc - what’s your take on that?

Yuri…. “For some reasons stock is highly skewed towards being priced like there's no IF but recent financial reports (Ex YPF) do not support anything close to current valuation”

I’m afraid you need to look at the valuation metrics again…

I’m with you 100% FFC - so far this opportunity is costing… When Argentina delivers the SP will rocket and likely start to move before a deal is announced as there are far too many involved parties for the news not to leak that solid negotiations are in-play!

I’m expecting 2025 to be a strong year for the SP given vintage cases and YPF.. starting now with a gradual rise into the Q4 update in early February

Schedule of Court Filings Before Judge Preska Decides Whether to Order the Republic of Argentina to Turnover YPF Shares to Judgment Creditors::

• December 20: Argentina, YPF, and creditors submit opening briefs. (YPF Case)

• January 10: The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) submits its opening brief. (YPF and Bainbridge Fund Cases)

• January 24: Argentina, YPF, and creditors submit responses to the opening briefs. (YPF Case)

• January 31: Argentina submits its opening brief. (Bainbridge Fund Case)

• February 6: Bainbridge Fund submits its response to the filings by Argentina and the DOJ. (Bainbridge Fund Case)

• February 13: Argentina submits its response to Bainbridge Fund’s filing. (Bainbridge Fund Case)

• Ruling: From March onward.

It’s already happening - numerous players will be running the numbers on THG as is or as remainCo. Literally anything could happen in the next 90 days or so..

And last but not least, Burford Capital has had continued successes in the legal cases they are financing. Realized gains from completed cases in the first half of the year were up 36% year-over-year. Their major win against Argentina in regards to YPF's expropriation, worth multiples of their entire market cap, continues to plod through the court system with various enforcement and discovery efforts underway, even as Argentina's appeal is pending at the federal appeals circuit.

Although we expect that the ultimate endgame here is a settlement of some kind, we doubt that Argentina will want to negotiate until their appeals are fully exhausted, which we expect to be a mid-to-late 2025 event. In the meantime, Argentina's finances do seem to be improving under President Milei's reforms. President Milei has placed himself firmly in the pro-business camp and has come out publicly for the need for Argentina to respect the rule of law and deal with the legal cases pending against it. Court time and negotiations are slower than many people like, but we do expect to eventually see a substantial payment to Burford from the YPF affair. In the meantime, interest on the $16 billion judgement continues to accrue. Whatever ultimately happens, in no world do we see Burford's present valuation to be a fair representation of the underlying value of their present portfolio, their ongoing franchise, and their YPF entitlement.

Thanks for that Planit.

Mr Marroc that would make sense given Mr Bogart’s comment that “he still believes the final outcome will be negotiated settlement rather than a legal one”

Volume is up ..

The US is usually pretty efficient at this sort of thing … fingers crossed

I do worry if Bessent gets agreement from Trump to devalue the $ that would not be helpful. He believes that’s the way to encourage exports and not to introduce tariffs ..

Mr Marroc - I’m not a lawyer but looking at the decision on Wednesday on the Peterson v Makarzi case I’m not sure it’s helpful?

https://kfgo.com/2024/11/13/beirut-bombing-victims-1-68-billion-iran-judgment-overturned-by-us-appeals-court/

It ain’t over till the Lady P says it is….

🔴Judge Loretta Preska, still unconvinced by the submissions from the U.S. Department of Justice and the judgment creditors, has ordered the parties to provide additional information specifically related to a precedent-setting case (Peterson v. Bank Markazi, No. 15-690-CV) to determine whether to order the transfer of ownership of YPF shares

Admittedly Burford has not performed as I hoped over the last year or so… however this time next year Rodney !!

Good question BBH! My thinking is as follows and I’m open to any feedback. (I asked ChatGP to tidy up my grammar)

I’m optimistic about Burford, which I think is essential when investing in growth-focused companies. In my opinion, the market has undervalued Burford because there’s still skepticism around its business model. But as we’re starting to see, with more time and consistent performance, that model is proving itself, which should lead to a higher share price.

The YPF case is likely a sticking point for big institutional investors, as it adds some uncertainty. Resolving this sooner rather than later through a settlement will obviously improve the SP. After the 30% drop and quick bounce-back on Thursday, it’s easy to see why institutions still feel cautious about the risk.

I’m confident in Burford’s Q3 valuation of its portfolio at $7.5 billion, and the current market value shows a steep discount—about 66%. If this valuation is actually on the conservative side, then the discount is even bigger, meaning there’s a lot of room for the share price to go up as settlements come in.

Right now, Burford is valued at about $2.5 billion, or 8 times earnings, which seems low for a business with this model. If we see the cash flow pick up as expected in Q4, it should further prove the model’s high margin potential and support Burford Only’s ability to keep funding new cases from its own cash thus compounding the returns.

Basically the cash should start to roll in in the next 12 months and we should see a price of £20+ and YPF may have settled and we could be touching £30..

Ah - Just listened to the Q3 update and the significance appears to be Gerry Mato who headed up HSBC americas who is working on behalf of Burford.

The update is very good.. we should be £20+ this time next year without the YPF cash!

Mr Bogart does state that he believes the resolution will be through negotiations not the legal process so we could be on for a Christmas bonus

Good morning Mr Marroc - please could clarify the significance of Mr Rissola visit?

Interesting!!

Blue ☀️

…?

Nice - I hope you make considerably more as the day progresses