Member Info for BlueWiley

We hosted a day of meetings in Chicago for Burford Capital CEO Christopher Bogart, CFO Jordan Licht, and head of IR Josh Wood with a group of existing and prospective investors focused on the long-term opportunity in the core litigation finance business. Given the extensive update on YPF that management provided on the 3Q24 earnings call, there were not any updates for that case. While we believe the market is currently undervaluing the potential YPF resolution, which we see as providing asymmetric upside potential, it also distracts from investors' appreciation of the strong core business.

Our meetings were mostly focused on the growth and return potential of the core business, where Burford continues to build its competitive moat through its proprietary data and extensive experience evaluating and financing commercial litigation. While competition was a concern of investors, management feels well positioned with the more aggressive competitors focusing on areas of litigation finance where BUR doesn't often traffic. The timing of favorable litigation developments will always make projecting quarterly results challenging, but we feel comfortable that given BUR's strong deployments, the backlog of realizations from the pandemic, and BUR's sustainable competitive advantages, the near-term and long-term prospect for continued growth and ROE ~20% remain strong.

With the shares trading at ~ 1.25x book value on a book that we believe understates the potential value of YPF, and at a valuation that undervalues a core business that should trade closer to at least 1.5x book, we continue to view BUR as a compelling opportunity, though we note it could struggle to rerate until we get more clarity on the ultimate YPF resolution.

SP moving up ... but slowly

Mr Marroc - this is helpful thank you. Do you think Gerry will help in speeding up the process for a settlement to be reached?

Newt that’s really helpful and thanks to all other posters - in the main this board is of a high quality. I’ve been in this since September 21 and added many times. I’m relatively new compared to some on here but it does feel like 2025 could be the pivotal year with the expected flow results & American listing.

Thanks Ext … we are going to get paid - hopefully sooner rather than later

Fascinating BBH.. Burford is going to be great investment

Seems “Gerry” hired by Burford helped raise funds for the Milie election funding - following the Eliot playbook… classic..

Mr Marroc your thoughts please?

Part 2

In fact, the Burford Fund hired a well-known character for the libertarian world as an interlocutor. This is Gerardo "Gerry" Mato, a former HSBC executive approached by Macri to get resources from Milei for his campaign, as LPO revealed exclusively.

"Milei wants to pay and Burford knows it. The negotiations are going down a parallel lane and Preska is nothing more than a new procedure, where there is still nothing concrete. The question is in what order of priorities will Milei agree to agree on a payment plan with Burford, and how much effort he will input for the Argentine economy. The worrying thing is that there is a lot of enthusiasm on both sides," a source aware of these negotiations told LPO.

With this it does not seem coincidental, that on the eve of Barra's ejection, the Argentine defense has shown a 180-degree turn by agreeing to provide the information requested by Preska about the gold sent to London that this medium revealed. Until now, Argentina appealed to immunity to protect national sovereign assets.

Anyway, the lawsuit has been processing for more than 9 years. The case is in appeal, but for the US justice any sentence must be served in force, even if it is of first instance, as long as the judicial process continues.

Burford, a second-generation vulture fund, acquired the rights of Petersen Energía, a company of the Eskenazi family. The bad tongues state that it would be associated with 30% of the collection if justice rules in favor of the fund.

Article

Rodolfo Barra was removed from his position on social networks. Who until this Friday was the prosecutor of the Nation asks that the formalities of the case be fulfilled. Among so much sluminess, there are disparate versions of the reasons for his departure.

The most repeated one refers to the salary increases in the Attorney General of the Nation that strengthened the iron triangle; and that the President was already upset with the number of trips abroad that Barra made. It is true that since he assumed the Attorney General's Office, Barra spent much of his time between Madrid and Punta del Este. But the Milei knew that before they appointed him.

However, the explanations that link Barra's shift with the cause of the expropriation of YPF sound more solid. The chronology of the facts supports this theory.

The Attorney General's Office is "the defense lawyer" of the Argentine state. As such, it is the body responsible for the Argentine judicial strategy in this litigation. When Barra took office, he decided to continue the strategy inherited from the previous management in charge of Carlos "El Chino" Zannini. Argentina held before the court of Loretta Preska the argument of expropriation as a sovereign decision that should be decided in the Argentine justice.

The final judgment in the first instance obliges Argentina to pay USD 16 billion to the Burford Fund. Both parties are very clear that the figure is unpayable, but that does not exclude negotiations to reach a possible agreement.

Wild trading in USA on no new news really .. a taste of what's to come 💥

Longknife - I’m hopeful once the flows are proven and if Liberty thrash all expectations an orderly que will form with partners willing to invest the relatively small sums required to extract the liquid gold from the basin…

It would appear POQ is on the right side of this play - undoubtedly with the blessing of Mr Shephard & Co….

“We are extremely encouraged about the potential of the current stimulation program based on strong gas shows and other data observed whilst drilling both wells. In addition, we are very confident that the experienced US operator, Liberty Energy, will provide us with the greatest opportunity for the best possible outcome from this stimulation program. We look forward to updating the market on the IP30 flow test results as soon as they become available.

Reducing our participation in the next four wells has a minimal impact on our overall interest in the Beetaloo which remains at 22.5%. This demonstrates the optionality afforded by the DSUs, which enable Falcon to strategically and efficiently deploy its capital. This reduction in our participation in the next four wells significantly reduces our 2025 capital expenditure whilst at the same time leaving us very well positioned to capture the overall success of the Beetaloo.

The valuation metrics just don’t add up given the cash generation and margins - Peel Hunt has valuation of £1.40 and I would hope we start to see some more bullish price targets in the coming weeks. The city does not like or trust Mr Moulding and neither do us share holders and that’s a real problem for the SP that only he can rectify.

For those that have over bought on this one like myself have a look at Falcon Oil & Gas (FOG.l) Have a read of todays and previous RNS’s and also the bulletin boards comments are sensible and well informed - it’s about to get exciting. I first bought in at 15p and today’s share price reflects the delays at 7.5p with a current market cap of £80m. It’s listed on AIM and Canada and soon to be in the US with very influential shareholders already invested. It’s under the radar with hardly any volume and up 80% in the last month. Is it about to come alive: Cavendish think so and released a price target of 38p in November. I’m a considerable holder. Worth a small punt - thank me in the coming months.

Exciting times ahead!!

I’m expecting Nutrition to be flat at best and will generally disappoint as too much competition and whey pricing is still high. Beauty will be strong on all fronts and the future will Look Fantastic pardon the pun..

Beauty worth at least twice the current SP.

I’ve said good bye before to £10 but return it did

Across the pond we are up 5%

Yet hardly any shares change hands on the bid

Mr Marroc do you know of a reason why we climb so fast

Oh please Mr Market let the £10 share be gone and

may Lady Preska deliver our judgement at last….

That's a straight forward low volume order to buy at 8p... if we see similar orders at 8.5p and c9p then maybe just maybe

This report is from 2023 and many of the milestones have or are about to be met..

Https://territorygas.nt.gov.au/projects/beetaloo-sub-basin