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Yes I thought that … why not announce the key numbers in an RNS as per normal. If a new investor looked at the numerous presentation’s I’m not sure they would get it.. very poor

The results are hardly simpler to understand as per the previous RNS.. steady numbers though!

PennySlotts - your maths may make sense in your economics class room of paper money … however I think a settlement of hard cash in the real would be calculated differently…

Continued :

Clearly the market is not pricing in a full settlement with Argentina. The Argentinian government has used every delay tactic legally available to them. Argentina also does not have the money to pay Burford or other YPF claimants. However, things are improving in Argentina. Under President Javier Milei, who came into office in December 2023, there already has been broad regulatory reform, and are working towards getting the country's fiscal house in order. Milei has shrunk the size of government and just reported its first budget surplus in 14 years!

Milei wants to be welcome in international circles. He goes to the "global conference" in Davos, Switzerland, and has named his dog Milton Friedman. To realize his ambitions, he will need to work with the IMF and global capital markets, which would be easier with a successful resolution of the YPF case where a previous regime unambiguously stole from foreign shareholders who have not yet received any restitution. I believe there is a deal to be had.

To date, there have been better proxies for Argentinian reform and progress than Burford shares. The S&P's Argentina index (Merval) surged 172.52% in 2024 vs. a decline for Burford. With so many parties involved, including the Argentinian government and various U.S. courts, the range of outcomes for any Burford/YPF settlement is very wide. That said, I think there is a greater than 50% chance that we get a settlement worth at least the entire 2024 year-end share price of Burford in the next 2 years (to be paid out over years). Milei did not create this problem, but I increasingly think he will solve it.

Meanwhile, Burford has an outstanding litigation finance business that keeps chugging away by funding lawsuits with high expected value returns. I don't think BUR stays dead money, and a decent Argentina settlement could double the value of the shares overnight. We could "get there" with a step function increase in share price.

Burford (BUR) - Burford isn't just "getting there" - they're already the leader in litigation finance with a 27% historical gross IRR and losses on only 13% of cases, according to their disclosures. I have gone out of my way in past letters to highlight just how good the company has been historically at financing litigation. They rarely lose money on cases, in part because the vast majority (76%) settle. They do, however, occasionally have "monster winners" that return 10X, 50X or even 100X their initial investment.

Burford's leadership team personally owns stock totaling 9% (>$200M) of the company and has been a net buyer of the shares. With aligned insider ownership, historically low loss rates, and tangible book value making up more than 80% of their share price, Burford is a well-capitalized and sustainable business.

In 2024, Burford was worse than "dead money" as it posted a share price decline. It is rarely easy to isolate the cause of a share price decline, but apparently investors had some consternation over the slowing pace of investments in new cases.

While I have tried to focus our attention on Burford's current and future business, I think it is time to look deeper at the YPF case.

The general facts of the YPF case are not disputed. YPF is an oil company operating in Argentina that was publicly traded In 2012, Argentina nationalized the company and gave no compensation to existing shareholders. Burford has been financing the case of the shareholders against Argentina. YPF still exists, and the Argentinian government has benefited for more than a decade from the shares they stole/nationalized without compensation.

This litigation against Argentina has gone on for years, including appeals by Argentina disputing if Burford even has the right to collect and if the U.S. courts have jurisdiction. The plaintiffs Burford financed were ultimately awarded $16B, which is earning $1B per year in interest. In round numbers, a full payout would likely be worth more than S6B for Burford, or $25+ per share. To put this in perspective, this is double where the shares ended the year for a single case in Burford's portfolio. We can debate the magnitude and timing of the ultimate payout, but I believe the expected value is not $O.

This the first set of results reporting as a fully paid up member of the US markets. Interestingly they are also ‘simplifying’ reporting on Burford only Assets and third party funded assets.

Is this the moment we move forward based on the underlying business and not just on how the market views progress on YPF?

The very best of luck my friends

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A new messsge thread ..

Unable to post new message - anyone else having same problem

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Rise before the results.. I expect them to be next week..

Excellent- When passed this will remove a lot of uncertainty for future investors in the Beetaloo and beyond

That’s really encouraging Mr Marroc…

Thanks Rider … so much going on at the moment.. hopefully we have seen the back of £11 roll on £13..

My guess is 25th or 27th of February. Under SEC rules they have to publish before 3rd March and that’s a Monday.

PS - Did anyone look at Falcon Oil & Gas. Another good RNS this morning and now up 80% this year with still very little volume.

Yep I fancy it .. I'll get my name on the list and make a call after the results..

Face to face at last …Confidence in results maybe?

Apologies Form 6-k ...

They are pre arranged sells in the US probably for tax liabilities etc.

Form 8-K Rule. 10b5-1 allows corporate insiders to establish pre-arranged written stock trading plans at a time when the insider is not aware of material, non-public information.

V Sweet ...