Member Info for Bluelight

That's the thing, they've made alot of profit in 3m (cash gains, debt paid off, large material reserves to corner the market). Many of those costs wont be in the 2H, so cash generation will be much higher (even discounting anything from the US as that's an unknown). I'm being very cautious at 40m cash gain every 3 months, so 12-13m a month profit. Realistically its much more likely to surprise to the high side of that. However you look at it, I see 100m cash in bank by year end, barring any new projects, dividends, or takeovers etc.

I dont worry about short term moves personally. rarely do market updates drive a price up. People love to buy a rumour sell a fact (the half year reports could have said 200m in the bank and it would probably still have dropped, thats people for you). Now the facts been sold, and I suspect many will now be looking to buy back in and make their 20% back up to 300. So you will probably see buy the rumour again on some random expected update or distribution agreement. None of it means much to me, I look at the longer term fundamentals. whether its 250, 275, or 300 today is still cheap to me, so patience is the wisest approach for now. Set my alerts for a breakout over 350, that's when I'll get really interested.

It even states it clearly in the rns 'As a result, there is expected to be greater cash generation in the second half of the year'. Lets say 30m cash in 3m so far (20m in bank plus debt payments, may be more as don't know amount paid on materials to meet 2H demand), higher in the second half, so lets be conservative and say 40m cash every 3m for remainder of 2020. that means come end 2020 it will have 20m + 80m 2H 2020. that gives it cash in the bank of 100m come the end of the year. Im no financial expert, but with a mcap of 150m right now that screams take me over.

The markets driven by fear and greed, rarely values anything correctly (just look at how overvalued the US is right now, inversely correlated to covid indeed, lol). The real valuation will be come takeover time, when actual financials are evaluated. What is worth today or tomorrow in share price moves is irrelevant, that's just the likes of you and me driving small moves on emotional decisions.

Its gone from nothing in the bank end of last year, plus debt, to 20m in the bank, no debt, and greater assets. Most of that profit will have been from the last 3 months. Extrapolate that forward, and you will be looking at cash and assets worth more than the market cap within 12 months. As valuations go this looks very cheap to say the least. I honestly don't see it existing as NCYT come the end of 2020, it will have been bought out before then if the mcap remains this low.

That sales revenue was up month on month for the 6th month in a row, so its clear sales are ramping up along with their production. The cash position is after theyve front loaded all their costs, and paid off all of their debt. What the situation is now is massive orderbook, paid for materials, and no debt payments. Translate that into meaning that for the rest of the year and at least 2021 (and I personally think testing will be around for many years to come) they are basically going to be pulling in cash with virtually no costs. Its basically a cash cow for at least the next 12m. Seems to be missed by many people, but I doubt it will be missed by their peers as regards a takeover target. No debt, highly cash generative, whats not to love.

Customers arent going to wait around for authorisations. They need the tests now. So in all likelihood alot of business that might have been done has now been handed to other players. Once youve got that supply in place and assuming they are happy with it then it will be extended, and that means no business for GDR. Each day delay is more of the pie that will have been taken by someone else.

Problem is you need the authorisation to be able to sell the product. Im sure most countries are stocking up, and those companies that have authorisation are indeed doing excellent sales. Question is whether GDR has missed the boat, those companies will already have the sales channels and the relationships built up now.

I see we have some new shorts in today, good good. They'll drive it to new highs when they get stopped out, we've been missing this for a while. Happy days.

I'd love to see the odds on slipping on a banana skin and breaking your neck as opposed to catching a plane in a pandemic and contracting a virus. I suspect as a betting man you'd rather bet on the plane causing you issues. Nothing is risk free, but the point remains that you 'increase' your risk of catching it by flying. Now of course anyone can choose to accept that risk, but its the height of foolishness and worrying if people believe it is 100% safe. As a man who normally flies many many times a year i simply wont fly for now. Extrapolate that across the rest of the country and you have continued issues for airlines as long as the pandemic is a serious risk. And 13m global cases and rising rapidly is a serious risk, no matter how you look at it.

Its too contagious to be 100% captured. You can't tell me there's not a greater chance of catching it sat with hundreds of people directly around you and next to you, than say walking in an open park. Opening borders will cause a significant second wave, and the only reason its allowed at all is that it is financially unfeasible for the economy to remain closed. In short the government is putting money over people health and lives. Its not an easy choice and you can argue both sides, but to say its safe to fly is utter BS. You increase your risk of catching it by flying, plain and simple.

Wonderful news. 200 people packed into a metal tin can with a pandemic floating around, what can possibly go wrong....

Personally I traded from 100 up to the spike, took profit, and bought back in at 250. It's a classic retrace before another rally which I believe we are starting to see emerge. Any catalyst will push it to the 52 week high. If that catalyst is transformational news then I'd expect a breakout to new highs.

I welcome shorts in here as a long myself. Usual 10% bid offer spread, regular positive rns's and low number shares in circulation. Shorts can get easily caught out on that kind of share and forced buybacks are one of the drivers for price spikes.

Personally I only care about the global stats as the sales are global. Everyday it increases, us, India, Brazil are out of control to name but 3. Also reopening borders for me is a recipe for disaster. All this means longer term demand for tests.

What's being missed is also the first mover advantage. They've done a cracking job getting channels in place and sales geographically dispersed. Those sales relationships once built will remain and lead to longer term relationships. People who think these profits will disappear anytime soon just dont understand the exceptional work ncyt has done not only on the product, but on the sales and marketing. Just look at gdr, good product, shocking sales and marketing. Ncyt is the leader and profits/future sales make this mcap look laughably low.

That's the same chart that shows the move from 320 to 200 right? So much garbage written on here today, smells a little of desperation. This time next year rodders we will be millionaires, and you can be too if only you follow my advice.... lol

The reality of course is actually more global cases everyday and no vaccine until mid 2021. In 2 weeks are results which we all know will be horrific. So thanks for the pump up but I personally think I will wait and miss the chance to double my money in the next 10 seconds, yawn. By all means be positive, but dont spout garbage.

With NCYT I don't even bother thinking on it unless its +-10% moves. Anything in between is just spreads, low volume days, or outright manipulation. I'm with most on here waiting for the triple digit up moves, fingers crossed.

American Airlines getting smashed now in the US. Lets see if this filters through to the UK aviation stocks