Member Info for Bluelight

Yes whatamess, I didn't expect he would hold his hands up. Etiquette for future Triumph, before having a go at someone for giving genuine honest guidance, think before you try to belittle their view. When you are wrong it shows alot about you, not them. Hope you haven't lost too much.

@triumph1, you still going to abuse me for my 125 ri price forecast or are you going to man up and admit you got it wrong?

From the PM's briefing looks like cases are increasing again, and they are pausing the opening up. Those reports of increased measures in the North of England are worrying too.

160

It's simply a breakout. 300 was a tough resistance, now its gone and people will be piling in to drive it up to the next resistance level. It's classic trading psychology.

I'm in here and Avacta. Its obvious from the virus developments and spread that testing is going to be around for years to come and on a much higher volume, even if there's a vaccine. There's so much opportunity around for the whole sector. It's starting to be recognised by people I feel, and we are on the verge of a breakout sector wide. Exciting times.

Bramley. Think most of us feel its way too low versus the fundamentals, that's why we are in it. It's just that 300 resistance at the moment that keeps it from rising to its true value. It will break that soon, I suspect this week if not today. Then it will be a sharp rally as it finds a new range. I take all daily moves in my stride up or down, can't ask for better fundamentals, and that always gets rewarded eventually.

Trumps national security advisor has just tested positive for the virus, lol

That said it's not the party locations where the rising cases are is it, it's Madrid and Barcelona... So to simply imply it is the tourists partying is incorrect, it would appear it is the Spanish themselves which are spreading it. Islands are part of spain with free movement, so it's always going to be a blanket covering of quarantine, as the Spanish are travelling internal and thus cause it to spread.

I'd guess gap down to low 180s on open. No idea how the day will pan out though, highly volatile I would imagine

Whilst I agree global airline shares have a similar pricing relationship I'm loath to link euro stocks in any way to us stocks. us stocks are massively inflated by fed actions, they are just one giant house of cards waiting to come crashing down, whilst euro stocks are only slightly overvalued in my view.

You cant surely believe the spain update is small beer. Only reason prices stabilised was the expectation of a gradual return to normal. Spain is the first domino in what will likely be yet more lockdowns. More closed major destinations equals less income and more issues. To say that news is small beer is a little naive. Buying opportunity probably but only for the brave and long term minded.

I suspect you will see from mondays price action that spain being quarantined again wasnt factored into the price, far from it in fact

Absolute bloodbath coming on monday then for airline and travel stocks.

Triumph, you are confusing issue price cost of the rights issue and the price post rights issue. Of course the outright share price wont be 47% cheaper, I've never said the outright share price will be 125p after the share issue, but the price of the issued shares will be c40% cheaper versus the closing price. Anyway I wont buy until after as it will obviously be cheaper, whilst you on the other hand will have to fund the drop so as to not be diluted. Just remember my 125p issue price forecast, we will see who is correct come next week. That's me for the week, have a nice weekend.

Whitbred is FTSE 100 mate, and actually has a higher mcap than IAG, so dont assume IAG has a special place in investors hearts. We will see next week, but I stand by 125p.

And before you slate me on that Triumph, for reference the most recent rights issue Ive seen is whitbred which did a 1bn raise at a 47% discount to the closing price, so you can see for yourself your 10% looks woefully optimistic.

Most I see are more heavily discounted than a mere 10%, but like I say each have their own calculations. Not saying that's what the average price will be after, but the issue price will be significantly more than a 10% discount of that I'm sure. MCap is what 4bn being generous, and they want to issue 2.5bn worth of new shares. Thats a massive amount. Any bank underwriting it will not do it for a 10% discount as its likely they will be stuck with the shares, you need to guarantee take up and that needs to be at an attractive price.

No chance it will be september, not with the news all over it, and IAG forced to release an RNS admitting they were looking at it. They will no doubt update it with the results next week, whether it will go ahead or not. Otherwise the results are pointless, as the only question they will be asked is so are you doing the rights issue? Worst possible outcome is poor results, and no comment on a rights issue, creates uncertainty.

Hi Snufkin. I've never seen a RI done at above market prices in a depressed scenario. Maybe if a share was roofing and there were inadequate shares on the market to satisfy demand, but that's not the case here. My quick fag packet calcs would have the shares being offered at 125p a share. Thats to adjust shares in issue with market cap, but I'm no expert on that (not factored in additional cash in the bank as a result), I'm sure others will have better calcs for it.