The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
It is time this country stood up for its long held belief that we protect other vulnerable nations, its just words now. Johnson is an utter pu@@y, and we will do nothing I'm sure. More sanctions which will do literally nothing. In the meantime Russia creates a war front over which for the next 10 to 20yrs the Ukrainians will be fighting a gorilla war murdering the russians who invaded their home. Where is the sense in that. Time Nato showed some balls and marched in and at the very least protect Kyiv.
What a shameful day it is to be british. We stand by and let one of our allies be invaded by Russia. I lived in Kyiv a long time and have family there. They are all scared out of their minds, my wife who is Ukrainian was in tears all night last night. Shame on this government.
It's not a distressed asset, its a cash rich profitable company. Traders and line on a chart dreamers have fooked it royally, helped by the poorest IR department I've ever known. However, its asset value alone is over £4 a share. Its profitable, it has contracts, it has management targets at c£8, it has major investors holding at higher levels, it has £100m in cash. An offer will be made at c£8.5 I would estimate. Low enough to see value for the buyer, high enough to appease all bought out parties. No ones happy, but it's reasonably fair
Any offer will be done at industry averages, otherwise it will create a bidding war. I read all the comments from newbies, I'd accept 5,6 etc. Most of us, including I will add the ex ceo and blackrock who are major holders have paid 8+ average. We may be lethargic, but we aren't idiots. Fair value or any bid will be refused. Just because someone was lucky enough to buy at 2 or 3 doesn't mean the vast majority of holders will accept a insulting offer to them.... Its a company held mostly by retail in at much higher levels. Most aren't the type to cut their own throats just to let a few newbies make a few k. I shall reject anything sub £8
At this price, no RNS will make a blind bit of difference to holders. Even if they come out and say DHSC resolved here's £78m in the bank, we will still only rise from a ridiculously low valuation. If you buy in at this level then grand, but for the 99% of us that are in much higher, unless its a takeover RNS, nothing is going to even slightly ruffle our feathers. Seriously, even a 100% up day is just going to put us back to where we were a couple of weeks ago, the price is so low that most of us literally dont give a shat anymore what the price does. Thats actually a positive as prices can only drop if people sell, and if people stop caring then there's your floor.
Just worked out that stripping out cash we are now valued at virtually the same as GDR (basically nothing). GDR a company with sales of £687,000 and no saleable product. Whilst NCYT on the other hand had sales of 100m last year, and even with exepected reduced sales in 2022 is still expecting £50-60m in sales this year. An enterprise value of £17m on sales of 50m. I know it wont make a blind bit of difference to the price which will undoubetedly fall everyday next week also. At this point though whats the point in giving a **** about the price, it's not refelective of any fundamental metric, and for me its fallen so much that even a 10-20% move is meaningless in pound terms. I literally earn more in 1 day in my job than a 5% share price move impacts on my portfolio at this level . Also difficult to see why anyone would short here, those already short will see big diminished returns as % moves will equate to much less pound gains, and I doubt many would be increasing shorts at cash levels. All interesting I guess, and I'm sure it will still drop on Monday, but food for thought.
@Kilkennyted, lucky I saw you tag me there as first time I've glanced at the board in days. Yes, no holdings changed, all II's still holding the same shares as previously, including Vatel. Just retail scared out of their shares it seems.
Entire company now valued at less than £30m after stripping out cash, chortle chortle. Which is what 3m earnings? You really just have to laugh. Its dropped so far below fair value that it is now the easiest hold I've ever owned. Stick it away and see where we are later in the year when common sense returns.
Stripping out cash (and asusming we get nothing back from DHSC) then we are currently valued at c£40m as a company lol. Couldn't be more relaxed personally, its trading below its Net assets now substantially with no debt and profititable sales. no brainer this will get bought out now.
Be nice to hear a few words from the ceo. He cant escape writing a few lines in a results rns, pretty sure thats part of his role... It had better be unbelieveably bullish and insightful on his plans, after him spending 4 months in the staff bar getting to know the staff....
At this price might as well break it up and sell it into its componant parts. With, cash, stock, debtors, IP, and its various arms must be at least 300m sat on the table. Break it up and return it to shareholders I say.
It would be wording of said dividend that would be most beneficial. Something along the lines of we expect to fund and grow future dividend payments from our expanding revenue outlook. One line such as that would kick the apple cart right over for those with a negative bias.
Just general sentiment causing the sector to fall. That'd be fine if we didn't have c£100m plus cash in the bank. At the end of the day thats why I'm so relaxed. We are the only one who has a war chest to use to turn us into a huge player in diagnostics. Wjat I'd like to see next week is a plan and ideally an indicator of how we will use the cash to grow. It has been sat in the bank for a year now, time to put it to use. Get us away from being lumped in with the likes of ODX, GDR, AVCT etc.
What I would do is release £100m as a dividend payment. If they wont use it we will have it back thanks. The market doesn't value the cash as worth anything, so might as well put it in our bank accounts. £100m special divi, £1.40 to £1.50 a share. Then lets see what the market values £10-12m a month earnings as mcap wise.