BoE Gov. Q&A - Brexit16 Nov 2022 16:10
16m ago
15.45 GMT
UK 'definitely underperforming' on trade since Brexit
Q: Do you agree with Michael Saunders, a former MPC member, that without Brexit we wouldn’t face an austerity budget this week?
Andrew Bailey says the Bank thinks Brexit will cause a long-term downshift to UK productivity of around 3%. It calculated that shortly after the referendum, and hasn’t seen anything yet to change its view.
There is an effect from Brexit – but Michael must take his own view, Bailey adds.
“He’s a liberated man now,” points out Labour MP Rushanara Ali.
Bailey laughingly replies that “You said it” (perhaps remembering that he is not so liberated).
As a public official, Bailey says, he must remain neutral on Brexit, but not neutral when it comes to the effect of Brexit.
And he then slips the question to Swati Dhingra, the trade expert on the MPC, who tells MPs that UK trade has been underperforming since Brexit.
Dhingra tells the Treasury committee:
It’s undeniable now that we’re seeing much, much bigger slowdown in trade in the UK compared to the rest of the world.”
“There’s also the services exports side ... there again, we’re seeing a really strong stagnation.
We’re definitely performing below trend in terms of the exports numbers, in terms of the imports [it’s] even probably a bit bigger than that.”
MPC member Swati Dhingra says there is a 6% Brexit effect in the price of UK food compared to the rest of the world.
On UK trade - she says "We’re definitely underperforming compared to our peers"
— Richard Partington (@RJPartington) November 16, 2022
Dhingra was referring to this work here from researchers at the LSE: https://t.co/oAVF7LiGSN
— Richard Partington (@RJPartington) November 16, 2022
Dhingra explains that in the period after the referendum, the huge depreciation in the pound pushed up prices, and reduced wages.
And we are now seeing that UK is “definitely underperforming” on trade, both in terms of shipments to the EU, and to the rest of the world.