Member Info for BlueGlow

Trek, 35 trades on DEC !

Suggest a finger massage to recover :)

If it does reverse as you expect, you will have earned that 20% divi and then some. Balls of steel.

Ford, Liveinhope,

With respect, It is quite clear. There is no argument to be indulged.

I agree that The interview as a whole was poorly conducted, PG was allowed to ramble a little aimlessly without much direction from the hosts, and I do not like the statement anymore than the next guy, but the words are entirely unambiguous. They should be taken in their historic context of course, but to simply dismiss them serves only to disarm oneself, particularly in a discussion around exit value.

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Liveinhope,

I am glad you remain bullish, as do i, very much so :)

(that is my smiley face rather than some obscure punctuation, i dont know how to do emojis)

Liveinhope,

As i said, 200 million plus a 10% royalty.

Timed Link:

https://youtu.be/O2nb3mABsac?t=1335

22:15 onwards.

The purpose of quoting this figure is that it speaks to a large gap in ambition between management and shareholders - relevant to the takeover issue being discussed. Not because i expect circumstances to arise in which PG would be able to exit as such a valuation.

The quote is:

"So its not about throwing your hands up and creating vast volumes of reserves, not throwing your hands up and say you are going to sell gas at £100 million per bcf, or whatever, as the price has reached at some points, because there are very few people who can afford that. In fact nobody can afford that, long term. So, you have to kind of build your business around what is achievable commercially, and what is saleable commercially"

"We will be very happy for an exit of, as i say, up to 200 million dollars, plus say a 10% royalty in all remaining recoverable gas over say 40 bcf, the initial 40bcf, and we think that is achievable"

Yes the figure is ridiculous, but those were Pauls words.

Nametrade,

Thanks, i was quoting from memory, if my recollection is inaccurate i appologise.

Im not sure that what you have suggested is correct, but i would have to check.

Thanks again.

Jimmy,

In terms of a bid, at this stage i am equally as concerned that the company's management may be inclined to accept a subpar valuation as i am its shareholders. RoB recognises the possible value in Morocco better than the management themselves imo, i very much doubt he would be tempted by the £200 million plus a royalty figure than PG floated previously.

Certainly, in terms of the shareholder base, the best way to ensure that any hostile offer is rejected, and that holders would not move to install alternative management to accept on their behalf, is to ensure those same shareholders recognise, unambiguously, the value of the asset. This is best demonstrated by comprehensively testing. The potential risk of either management or shareholders selling themselves short due to ignorance is thus greatly reduced. It also reduces the chance of Paul selling up for less than might otherwise be achieved to pursue interests elsewhere, or to simply retire and wind down, if shareholders are cognisant of achievable value.

This, along with the aforementioned, is why i would personally prefer to delay if necessary in order to conclusively flow test, rather than proceed with such a reduced programme.

Testing removes the guess work and would allow the market to ascribe proper value to PRD. From a higher SP i have no issue with the odd small £2/3 million raise to advance the project as and if necessary, dilutory impact would be minimised, and we wouldn't be hostage to progress elsewhere. But, again, this valuation is only sustainably achievable if gas is proven by testing.

All roads lead to Rome !

Obadhia,

Just to note that i believe limited testing of MOU4 is conditional, and may be "considered" dependent on MOU3.

In any event, neither the Jurassic, nor the 50 meters of M1 sands are scheduled for testing at MOU4.

Liveinhope,

If the company allows the SP to languish, funding to further explore the licence remains burdensome for shareholders.

Thorough testing is our ticket to a higher SP - cheap drilling, and potential sales.

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Ibiza,

I do not think PG has reduced the testing programme through fear of unimpressive results.

My concern is that he is proving up just enough for an offtake, then turning attention to Trinidad, with Morocco temporarily becoming a carrot on a stick to keep shareholders onboard whilst CM is developed.

It is worth listening to these two short clips from a recent interview.

Firstly, Paul gives his view on drilling / testing to prove volume, the relevant section lasting around one minute. (20:02 - 21:00)

https://youtu.be/O2nb3mABsac?t=1202

Secondly, Paul suggests that testing isn't necessary to fulfill his ambition in Morocco. (31:14 - 35:55)

https://youtu.be/O2nb3mABsac

This interview was considered a complete car crash by the market, and Paul later disowned it. However, it appears that his thinking may now have realigned with the views espoused during the interview in question, in which Paul seemed to be happy to settle for far less value from Morocco (plus a royalty) than shareholders had hoped he might seek to achieve by further proving up the field.

He also speaks in enthusiastic terms about Trinidad, suggesting it to be Morocco's equal. This was again reflective of a lack of ambition in Morocco, rather than Trinidad having vastly more potential than previously thought.

Tmhsdx6,

Cash is required to unlock value in Morocco, this can either be raised on the market, or holders can wait very patiently for CM to become sufficiently profitable to fund further progress.

The immediate relevance of the SP to investors, LTH or otherwise, is that a high SP enables a raise with minimal dilutionary impact. Like collateral against which one secures a loan, testing facilitates "cheap" finance for us to drill.

Share holders have recently endured a large raise for this very purpose. To reduce the testing programme so significantly is highly undesirable imo, and risks hindering progress on multiple fronts.

Nametrade,

I thought the most recent update sounded somewhat apathetic about the prospect of returning to test 1, 3 and 4 in the near future. But, as you say, this is just supposition.

A comprehensive set of positive flow test results would lift the share price very considerably, enabling, if so desired, a small raise with very minimal dilution to further appraise the licence, and a multiplicity of other options to boot.

TXP amply demonstrates that progress in Trinidad can be slow. Relying on CM to expedite the finance needed for exploration in Morocco is undesirable imo, having the potential for holdups to domino.

The company should reinstate the previously outlined testing program in full, identified as the primary purpose of the recent raise, and retain as much focus as is feasible on Morocco and unlocking its massive potential.

Prove up the gas and use this as the basis for both negotiation and further exploration and just watch the share price rise!

Triffle,

Thanks for the reply.

Paul was bullish on the prospect of further drilling at the time, and though you are correct to say that proceeds were not directly allocated for this purpose, it was highlighted as a priority if funding permitted. Having raised more than anticipated, and given its obvious importance and the potential impact for shareholders, its disappointing that this has not remained an immediate priority imo.

I agree with your conclusion "the plan will be to see how testing plays out then reassess - we seem to have options."

My view is that more thorough testing would open up far more options and at much higher SP.

Good news kenny :)

Well done !

Shareholders paid for a comprehensive testing programme.

July 31st: "The net proceeds of the Placing will be used for completion of an extended rigless testing programme for MOU-1, MOU-3 and MOU-4."

This was to come from a proposed raise of £7 million, with spare capital being directed toward further value accretive drilling, specifically, to what the company described as its "key priority", namely the drilling of the potentially huge Jurassic target updip of MOU4.

Seismic events for the company and its shareholders!

Despite eventually raising £10 million, further drilling of the Jurassic target has been pushed back into H2 of next year, the funding of which is now reliant on seamless operational success in Trinidad. A tall order given the team already appear over stretched in morocco.

The newly proposed testing program is unrecognisable. It couldn't be further reduced without rendering it pointless. Far better to delay if necessary until the previously advised program can be delivered and the wells tested conclusively imo.

For reference, the RNS linked from August 30th, specifically the sections on testing and drilling and Paul's comments there below. The contrast with our most recent update is stark to say the least!

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/PRD/operations-update-covzavfrw2aj6tq.html

Link to RNS:

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/CGO/statement-re-share-price-movement-idcc8bm7ujm08t8.html

Thanks Tro.

From memory there were a bunch of Chinese companies in the area that were making things tricky for CGO a year or so ago - they didnt want the competition, which is why CGO got off to a slow start, but that seems to have blown over. Like the sound of the buyer doing some drilling for samples, sounds like serious interest.

CGO, afternoon RNS due to SP volatility.

No intention to raise.

Offtake samples being provided for a potential minimum of 6700 tonnes per month of coking coal with a multi-national.

Potential bid for companys assets being developed, buyer gathering samples.

To fix the NHS the entire system needs to be reorientated toward prevention rather than simply fire fighting.

In its present state the NHS has effectively become one giant A&E department struggling to prop up a patient populous that are well past the prospect of ever being cured.

So much technology now exists that could be harnessed to detect the onset of illness when in its early stages, not only improving outcomes and survival rates, where we lag many of our European peers by a considerable margin, but also providing an enormous cost saving. Early intervention is cheap, and most importantly people actually get cured and have the chance to live out a normal life.

I saw a professor some years ago, pressing the case for routine sampling. Microscopic changes in blood or saliva samples can identify the onset of many conditions before they even manifest in the form of an illness, affliction or disorder that can be detected by scans, let alone the actual patient.

In some instances simple dietary changes or a course of supplements prevented what would have become life threatening conditions if left until the patient became cognisant of a problem themselves.

But the present system obviously doesn't have the capacity to fulfill both its current role and a more prevention orientated approach simultaneously, so transition is difficult.

Sorry to hear about your mum Trek.

Sweden using hydropower for Green Steel.

"In this new power purchase agreement with Statkraft, H2 Green Steel secures a long-term yearly supply of renewable electricity produced in the period 2026-2032. The delivery includes Guarantees of Origin for renewable energy, sourced from Statkraft’s hydropower plants in Northern Sweden."

Link with cool picture:

https://www.h2greensteel.com/latestnews/h2-green-steel-partners-with-statkraft-for-14-twh-of-renewable-electricity

Tro, dont know if you saw the post a few minutes ago re HE1, hope you are ok.

And mick too, hope you arent too annoyed with it all.

Markets are crackers ATM.

nom, think either hydrogen or electric arc furnaces that are generally used, if thats of any use.

Australia specific, Met coal exports and future spot price predictions.

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/metals/100323-australia-sees-higher-2023-24-met-coal-exports-on-new-mines