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The consideration has to balance potential news against the CLN overhang remaining. If there's good news the price may rebound but while there's still an overhang the CLN holders will likely sell into that rise. The chances might improve with better than expected news and/or smaller overhang.

A declaration would be required at 3%, at 30% it would require an offer, but there's no evidence yet of such accumulation. It's not entirely clear whether the CLN holder (debt funds) conversions are being absorbed back into market organically, whether the broker/MM are absorbing them as inventory to speculate on imminent news, whether they're being placed with any affiliate/client equity funds, or they're being used to cover longer standing short positions, or a mixture of all of these. As far as I can tell, there's not much evidence of sticky hand accumulation so it looks like a fairly aggressive CLN conversion so far, with the MM stabilising price optics to maintain some market order while the VWAP declines fairly steadily by 2-3% per day.

Good luck. What makes you feel it's oversold?

Presumably anyone who is buying 'cheap shares', 'topping up' or 'averaging down' is buying them. That's kind of how it works.

Assuming today's trade average ends up around 0.42p then the ten day VWAP will be around 0.52p with the implied conversion price running currently somewhere around 0.38p (roughly 250m shares required per £1m debt at the moment). There's still fairly high volume absorbing the share distribution so I'd guess it continues for some days before the next tranche. Liquidity is the thing to watch rather than price. While there's liquidity they'll keep distributing irrespective of price. Likely there will be some price stabilisation though to maintain that liquidity and an orderly market, keep an eye out for the UT trade.

Shareholders were given ample warning in RNS. Galactica operations were suspended/postponed on 10 June and the terms of the proposed CLN agreement were announced on 18 July.

Yes, she said... "We've already started the planning phase of this operation, and once this fundraiser is complete, we’ll be able to order those long lead items for operations to commence in Q4 this year. So in preparation for this, we'll also be shaking down the rig."

That should be getting underway around now then

I don't have any need of employment thankfully and I wouldn't allocate more than 10% of my portfolio to AIM shares. It's a hobby share, for what it's worth, as I've said many times. I find the company story interesting and I believe they have a chance of long term success in a market that makes that incredibly challenging for a small cap startup. Each to their own anyway, and I apologise if my widely alleged and embarrassing lack of knowledge and understanding of how markets work turned out to be how AIM markets actually work. Odd that.

Seems unlikely this week, no indication of anticipatory market volume today. Distributing the shares while maintaining an orderly market takes some time, unless there’s a rapid liquidity event like significant news. They’ve cleared a quarter of it so far, which is faster than usual.

Thanks for your concern. I’m very comfortable following along with the development of the company story over the past four years and choosing when and how much of my hard earned capital to invest in it. Discussion always welcome.

Personally, I prefer not to hold through a CLN process like this because there’s no price floor price or end date and preserving my capital is important to me (after losing a good bit after 2021 and clawing enough back to break even via the 0.25p raise etc). But I remain optimistic about the company’s long term future and the cash is a great boost for the project development plans. I’ll happily reinvest once most of the conversion shares are cleared and we know how the cash is to be spent.

“The only thing that matters is being in before it happens. Conviction holders know that, and that’s why they stay the course and top-up if they can.”

I do wish you luck but I don’t understand how it helps to deliberately hold from say 0.9p just in case there’s a bumper RNS one morning at 0.3p

With all due respect, this is a very misleading characterisation of the CLN facility. The three 'investors' may be sophisticated and professional but they are not 'committing significant capital because they see genuine upside in HE1'. Not at all. They're vulture/shark debt finance funds who, in association with a large broker/MM, are acutely focused on making opportunistic returns from a capital event over the short to medium term. As they've already shown, they'll convert as many shares as they can as quickly as they can, and for as long as the market liquidity exists to churn those shares (mostly washing them through the MM's inventory). If they were 'signalling confidence in the story, the resource, and the path to production' they'd have bought shares and held them. They're not, and it would be surprising if their fund management rules even allowed them to hold AIM shares. They are, as you put it, 'running for the exits', as quickly as they can while maintaining an orderly market and avoiding a stampede. But that's not unusual and I wouldn't see it as a vote of no confidence either. This is just what they do and how these type of CLN agreements work on AIM. With luck they'll get them all done before there's big news. If they still have share conversion options remaining at that point the broker assist in placing them in stickier hands, using affiliated equity funds, but likely they'll just keep distributing them to into any price rises. Once the projects are de-risked then hopefully we'll see actual 'investors' come in.

That would depend on the number of wells, the profit margin and the equity spilt in the project. Remember HE1 only have 50% ownership in Galactica versus 83% ownership in Rukwa, at the moment, so they only get half that profit. Either of those numbers could change of course. The modelling projections for Galactica look more profitable 'per well' than the model for Rukwa (same amount of helium per 'typical' or average well, but shallow drills, free gas, lower processing costs, CO2 sales, easy access to market etc). However, Rukwa could be a larger and more long term project, and HE1 do own a larger share of it. So the project might be worth more overall perhaps if the modelling projections and the technology are proven and there's investment forthcoming (although a JV /farm in might reduce the equity share). Then again, the appraisal might turn up new numbers altogether.

Apart from the nine months when you were wrong 🤣

The CLN holders have 12 months to convert but they’ll probably get it all done by Christmas. Both projects are slated for operations in Q4. Plans for Colorado are still subject to BNL shareholder vote approving their equity raise on 19 September.

It’s all explained in the CPR but the assumptions were summarised in the discovery RNS last year. The hope to pump 20,000 barrels of water per day from the well to extract 6Mscf of helium per day (similar to the amount of helium gas free flowing from the discovery well in Colorado).

Of course it's a novel methodology. No-one has ever extracted helium from groundwater at commercial scale, that's the point of the 'unique' geological play. There is German technology in field trial and the Chinese have been running the first commercial pilot, extracting helium as a byproduct from a geothermal power plant during the non-heating season. It may be that HE1 attempt something similar in TZ where they can commercialise the enormous quantity of heated ground water as well as the gas extraction, but it is novel for sure.

Yes, bit cheeky. As per formula it's 80% discount of the already 92.5% discounted VWAP up to Tuesday, but 10.6% discount to mid price Thursday does sound like a better deal ;-)

"This is a ploy to transfer shares from retail to institutions and all the nonsense noises just further reinforces the notion."

Do you have any evidence to support this hypothesis?