Member Info for Blubay

309,000,000 shares

I may have been a bit optimistic. Looks like an uphill battle to maintain a market above Monday's average. Daily VWAP 0.40p this morning, which would create a new lowest day if it trades similarly this afternoon. That would bring the ten day VWAP around 0.44p with conversion available at 0.35p. On the plus side they might have churned 20m shares today by close.

The CPR projects 295,797 Mscf (2C) over an extended licence period up to 2058, or 78,668 Mscf over the first ten years to 2035. But that figure is based on the CP's adoption of a more conservative and depleting reservoir modelling scenario. If the company's best case does prove correct through appraisal and further exploration then it's more.

Really, you need to move on from years old pre drilling prospect estimates. We have more up to date figures. Read the CPR.

"Estimated value of Rukwa 138billion Bcf."

Sloppy journalism. As everyone knows, that was the gross prospective figure used to raise exploration capital years ago, before any drilling or sub surface data from Rukwa. Read the CPR.

I'd guess anything printing under 0.41p is a sell. They're just moving the stock slowly and marginally above the market mid price, which gets flagged as buys on aggregator sites like LSE. Just a guess.

I think you'll see Colorado plans as soon as BNL have had their shareholder meeting/vote on 19 September. Without that they can't really commit to the investment decision, although they have a portion of the cash already converted.

She was talking about 'ordering' long lead items once they had the cash advance, not about the items themselves. Those are mostly considered in the EOIs for tender published months ago

I’m well aware of the financing structure thanks. The daily average matters in that context. My guess is that it will be managed at or above Monday’s average until the next conversion tranche, which might be 1-2 weeks away. If they can manage that then conversion might be in region of 0.33p. Just a guess.

I’d be looking to see if the daily average holds up above Monday’s 0.41p

Punter/Cat (and other IDs) is now Louise82

I have no previous name. Account opened when I invested in HE1's spring 2021 Tai drilling campaign.

Like I said, really less bothered about price than capital preservation during this uncertain period. I increased my stake by 50% in anticipation of the near term production schedule for Colorado as soon as all wells were completed. I sold that part at a marginal loss on the day they announced a six month delay to that schedule. Likewise, I sold my main long term holding as soon as I read the RNS for the CLN agreement. I based my position on news and evidence and I think the company is very investable once they get through this period. Others may take a more risk oriented or speculative approach which is fine, each to their own. I don't claim to have made any money here, pretty much break even at the moment but hopeful for the development phase when it comes.

I don't have an entry price. I'm just waiting until I can see evidence the CLNs are done or there is some change in news to alter the consideration. Not really bothered too much about price. Obviously it would be nice to end up with more shares than I sold at 0.9p, and ideally enough to cover the dilution, but not at risk of eroding my capital. Rule 1: protect your capital. Rule 2: refer to Rule 1.

Yes, lots of potential but remember the 2021 hype was based on prospective talk of 138bcf about helium so you'd need to revise NAV more in line with the more recent CPR contingent or the recoverable post-appraisal.

...just projecting that estimate further, I think if the broker could manage to hold the price up at this level until mid September the conversion price would then start to recover marginally towards 0.35p. So I'd guess the next most profitable time for CLN holders to convert might be 9-16 September @ 0.33p, if they can drip out enough shares in an orderly way to make that worthwhile. Assuming they're still selling those ahead now at 0.41p it's not a bad return. Just a guess.

About £178m

Looks like a fairly decent price stabilisation since Monday, which has slowed down the price decay for the moment with some demand above 0.4p, albeit at lower volumes (e.g. CLN holders may be dripping rather than dumping). Discounted VWAP is now around 0.46p with conversion options currently available around 0.36p. If the daily VWAP holds up around today's 0.43p going forward then the ten day would see a softer drift towards 0.43p with the conversion options then bottoming out at 0.33p due to precedence between the two different conversion formula (unless there's a new lowest day below 0.41p). Not sure if that makes any sense.

I have no other ID on LSE forums and comment on no other share.

Just for the avoidance of doubt MC, you made a number of rather assertive and accusatory posts in discussion of the CLN agreement, which you might wish to review, among other things...

"... it has worked out very well for me. I managed to get 100% of what I wanted in the end by requesting a larger amount. "

"It was a bit of a giveaway, I can never turn down easy wins..."

"I will not be selling my cheap shares for a 10 or 20% profit, not when we have a potential 6 x profit at the retail offer price if the analyst price of 3.7 on the 25/06/25 is anywhere near the mark. Add to that the Institutional investors will be getting 12% interest on their 10 mill so will not be interested in an early request for settlement of the CLN, be that cash or shares."

"You do realise that there is interest to be paid on the CLN and so the Institutional Investor will have no interest in a quick conversion. Just sit tight, all good things come to those who wait…"

"they can pay back on cash or shares. I hope people do not miss out on this bargain due to ignorance of how the market works..."

"please stop telling people the worst case scenario Blubay as that is very unlikely. The Institutional Investors are far more likely to want to convert when the share price is 3.7p for example (which is the analyst price for this share in this financial year 2025-2026)."

" it gets so irritating when this board gets cluttered with people who do not know what they are talking about stating potential VWAP conversion prices and short timescales. Maybe Blubay will stop doing that at some point?"

mmm, or maybe not...