RE: Boatman report9 Aug 2021 14:05
No, it's nonsense, read the proper research report from Finncap, based on real analysis of real evidence. Valuation raised from 220p to 240p this morning.
"Argo has reported strong H1 21 results, with revenue of £31.1m and adjusted EBITDA of £23.7m
(excluding digital asset and FX gains/losses) from mining 883 BTC. In H2, we expect that Argo will
continue to benefit from the impacts of the Chinese government and many Chinese provinces
effectively banning Bitcoin mining from May, and we upgrade our FY21 and FY22 BTC mined by +9%
to 2,111 and 2,922 respectively. Combined with unchanged expectations for machine deliveries and
an unchanged BTC price of $40k since our 3 June forecasts, the increase in BTC mined and USD/GBP
changes drive upgrades to our FY21 and FY22 revenue of +8% and +12%. The revenue upgrades
benefit from strong operational gearing as the reduction in global mining difficulty does not impact
Argo’s direct costs from operating its machines and datacentres, but as we include incremental opex
from the expansion of Argo’s team, we also upgrade EBITDA by +8% in FY21 and +12% in FY22. At
adjusted EPS, we lower our FY21 and FY22 forecasts by -26% and -24% due to the inclusion of £8-
9m of P&L tax pa, and incremental finance costs of £2m and £4m in FY21 and FY22. H1 results
highlight a tax charge of £3.5m at an effective tax rate of c30%, which we had previously expected
would be offset by tax losses and accelerated depreciation of Argo’s c£170m of capex over FY21 and
FY22. We now conservatively assume that Argo will pay P&L tax on its foreign profits at an effective
tax rate of c30%, with cash tax paid from FY22. As we do not include any impact in our forecasts of
Argo’s potential Q3 listing on Nasdaq in the US, we also include incremental debt in FY21 and FY22
as we expect that the company will continue to hold all of the Bitcoin that it mines in H2 21. As Argo
looks to capitalise upon the opportunity for its transformational new Texas facility, we look forward
to it providing further updates on the potential Q3 Nasdaq listing, highlighting further milestones for
the build of its Texas facility, and announcing new machine orders. We upgrade our Argo valuation
to 240p from 220p, where we use a scenario-based approach on 2023 OpFCF and include the impact
of the company growing its BTC holding to c2,700 by FY22. At 131p, Argo is trading on 12-month
forward multiples of 7x EV/Sales, 13x EV/EBIT and 23x adjusted P/E, with +70-90% NTM growth in
each metric."