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Exactly this, there will certainly be PI nerves about the potential for dilution, especially in the US where it's culturally ingrained, but PIs follow rather than leading. As soon as there's a hint of a gain they'll pile in. I suspect +25% on day of listing might be on the cautious side in ARB's case if the current SP stagnation continues until then and BTC continues to rise.

Yes, thanks I was underestimating as I only looked at Binance as a guide

apologies for my ignorance but I'm not sure what you mean by 200 coins. There seem to be at least 2,000 coins lined up in sell orders between here and $50k, half of them to get past $47k.

It's only going up if new investors come in with new money at higher prices. It sure won't go up on it's own, no matter what BTC does. That's why NASDAQ is critical to the upside because of the massive liquidity and potential demand for miners in that market.

200 or 2000?

No, I agree completely that the volume declined since the over buying spree but that didn't disrupt the correlation between ARB/BTC and other miners. The very low volume on OTC provided the recent shorting opportunity, that's the point.

The overall HE1 helium prospect wasn't in much doubt and the test drill was successful in confirming that but the CoS on discovery for the individual drill was always long odds. Think the analyst reports previously put that at one in four or five. They have more shots anyway and they're funded for it, hopefully one out of four will flow some gas, either this year or next.

like this https://www.tradingview.com/x/F5MviNmP/

I guess it's possible, seems like a big bet?

That's not really correct Chaebol, ARB does only tiny volumes in the US and a large proportion of that is controlled by short positions since 30 July. The SP continued to leverage on the upside of BTC prior to that and well after the point you're talking about. Do the correlation. The break point is 30 July, when the short opened

ah, so the % increased again? Up from 15% and 20% the previous days, looks like they are just adjusting the position each day to keep the SP in that range?

True, but not so much in the case of ARB, which was largely (over) bought by PIs at its most popular market points not as a marginal opportunity. Many of those buyers are underwater, topped up or averaged down, and probably unlikely to buy much more. New PIs aren’t likely to buy when the chart isn’t going up, unless they know about BTC (and they’d be in already if they did). On the other hand, institutions continue to accumulate large tranches of shares with confidence (or because they have to match ETF quotas).

The elephant in the room is why ARB stopped correlating with BTC so abruptly one day when BTC and all other miners were going up. That coincided with the large short position taken out on OTC the same day as an otherwise excellent set of results, and the release of the malicious dossier on social media. The US stock has been relentlessly shorted since, with the MMs matching the UK spread to it.

Basically, there is a bit of uncertainty but it’s massively amplified by the shorts and there little the company can do about it during the purdah period of SEC application.

Correct, $46k or above target price for then

Because not enough people are prepared to buy it at a higher price just now?
Various reasons for that, including large organised campaign to keep it down, short the US stock, and encourage uncertainty about the company, while it’s in the process of NASDAQ listing. To be fair, some of the uncertainty is real (NASDAQ IPO and Texas plans) so buyers might prefer to wait for more certainty.

It’s massively undervalued for sure, when the brakes will come off who knows.

Anyone who hasn’t bought BTC under $50k shouldn’t really be a fund manager!

Options expiry today… ‘Friday 13th’ for any shorters of a nervous disposition
$46k is the target I think
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-bulls-aim-for-50k-ahead-of-friday-s-675m-btc-options-expiry

Options expiry 8am today

Shorts on OTC reduced from 800k to 115k in the past two days, still 20% of volume yesterday but down by half on that measure. Not sure if that means we’re reaching an end on the short/slur campaign or whether they will renew if the SP rises out of the narrow band created.

Suspect we might see the first test on $50k coming in the next week

I think that’s a slight mixup as the rig they have is capable of both 4” exploration and 6.75” appraisal drilling. HE1 booked a the cheaper exploration rig but Mitchell had a bigger rig available and provided it at no extra cost (because it was already in Tanzania). But yes, the exploration drill was the smaller bore and I believe they have the kit there to drill the larger bore if there’s good reason and time.