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It seems the main investors have already piled in at this price, AMG are buying 25% of the company at this price, the directors are buying at this price. Retail will be small by comparison but you have to imagine AMG think they’ll profit on their share?

And only open for 2 hours

So this is the same price AMG are paying for their 25% stake?

I was just looking at this on PrimaryBid. Anyone care to unpack it for me before I read more?

For context, Tennyson's valuation research note was prepared on the basis that "Beacon is acquiring the assets for equity, equivalent to 33% of the enlarged entity worth c.US$5.2m, assuming a proposed £6m raise at the suspension price of 1.75p/shr (post consolidation)." (i.e. assuming the raise was concluded at 0.175p when it was concluded at 0.11p, or about two thirds that anticipated value). They indicate a core NAV of the 2P assets at $52.4m, and a risked NAV of the 2C resources at $174m, with 50-70% CoS on each of three wells (remember that research note on Buffalo which gave a 95% CoS!). It's a good prospect but it's not exactly without risk and the market has to price that accordingly. I'm optimistic but some realism is needed.

"It could be the case that many wouldn’t have be allocated as many shares as they wanted so will just pay whatever the market rate on the open market on 11th April."

Do you think anyone who bid for shares didn't get their full allocation? That would mean they had entered a bid believing the price would be even lower than 0.11p. PrimaryBid only raised £150k from retail. Looks like Tulip also had to add a £1m loan make up the numbers.

mCap following Admission at the Fundraise Price would be £11.56m. Hopefully the market values the company at more than this on a forward P/E basis. A listing of 0.2p would value it at £21m.

"my 15 strong group are buying 200m@ 0.11p at open if we can get them but my guess is a 0.25p open"

How many did you manage to get in the primary bid, knowing there would be a healthy discount on the listing price?

Good idea, but with what? In the absence of massive demand for BCE shares they'll need to stabilise an income stream from the first project and bank capital, or generate new shareholder interest, for funds to buy into new projects. They have a good long-term business strategy if they can get one project rolling (which is what Buffalo was supposed to do).

Then again, I'll happily take 2p if anyone's offering :-)

I think anything above 0.20p might be optimistic, given limited demand for the placing at 0.11p, but we'll see how much demand there is and how much market confidence there is in the timescale for getting this oil out of the ground with the cash available to do so. You can't price this at the NAV value underground. It's market valuation has to be lower than that, how much lower we'll see. But the main thing is demand, who do we expect to come in and buy hundreds of millions of shares at more than twice the placing price among those who weren't attracted to bid for them in the placing, knowing there would be a discount? Are all the holders on this board itching to buy millions more shares above 0.18p when they come online or are they looking to sell?

"I think the only uncertainty is how much Noble can raise and at what cost"

Or if they can't raise enough then we pay for more of the rig and take equity in Noble to spread the risk/benefit of discovery across the two projects

"0.25-0.50 opening price would be fair to all. Let’s see."

The price is not set to be 'fair' to anyone, it's a market, it will be set according to the balance of supply and demand.

"Need BTC to push to 50K before Argo pushes back to £2"

£2, is that a joke? How are you valuing Argo at close to £1bn?

But in general, the higher the listing margin then the more churn you can expect, which is what the MMs have to take into account against demand etc

"In order to be able to sell half and run the rest for free the relisting price would need to be at least 0.22p"

sorry, you're right of course, early morning lack of coffee :-)

Re-listing at the suspension price of 0.17p would represent >50% profit for investors in the placing at 0.11p, allowing them to recover their risk by selling half their share on listing and leaving the rest to free ride. Tulip have a lock in so they would have to wait but you could realistically expect an initial churn of say £1m, if there's market demand for it. It's hard to imagine any placing investor hanging on to their shares if it listed at 4-5x the placing price (e.g. 0.5p), so you might expect to see double that kind of churn.

"I feel there's still a big crowd out there wanting a piece of this."

The 'big crowd' could have applied for shares at 0.11p in the Primary Bid but didn't

"Anywhere above 0.5 p would be a decent placing price"

It would, but I wouldn't bank on it

Primary Bid only raised £150k (before expenses)
Brokers raised £2.5m from investors
Tulip subscribed for >10% of shares (on a lock in) to take >40% holding overall
Directors have taken shares in lieu of past 12 month fees
net proceeds £4.77m
Tulip has added a loan of £1m

On the plus side, if the market could be persuaded that the new company should be forward valued between £25m and £30m with 5.5bn shares in issue then maybe 0.5p?

The drop in oil price won’t have helped in the capital raise but at least it’s done and we have a re-start. Larger investors will expect to see a 30% cushion for taking risk at 0.11 but hard to see this re-listing much above the previous ADV price of 0.17. Not starting lower would be something.