Member Info for Blubay

With respect, it’s not your forum. I’m interested in the company and the potential for investment. I’m looking forward to production news from Colorado and next funding news for Rukwa. If those look positive I’ll happily buy. I have high hopes for the company long term. No change there. Good luck to all.

As I said at the time. I sold all my shares the morning of the RNS announcing the CLN deal and bought back in on the morning of the RNS announcing the end of the CLN. I’ve sold on the RNS announcing the results. I think that’s fairly transparent. I prefer to base decisions on news rather than speculation. You can infer the price points if you want to.

I’m very much enjoying the moment of price movement but for transparency I have sold on the basis of the published results, which I feel need more work. I’ll review and look at buying back if the price stabilises at this level but protecting my gains for now. GLA

The sustained flow rate is good but below the target rate modelled for the feasibility study. The gas water ratio is very low compared to the modelling assumption, but that was always the greatest uncertainty. On the positive side, helium concentration in the reduced amount of gas was at least in line with modelling assumptions, and the maximum reading was very high. If they can find a way to increase the gas ratio or tap the higher concentration then that would be promising.

Are you insane? In terms of ‘learning’ surely the million dollar question is ‘why’ are you sitting on a loss with an average of 0.96p when the share price just fell to 0.3p and has just doubled. You should have 70-100% profit at this point. MC quite sensibly traded his own profit from the price drop, which was entirely predictable the moment the CLN deal was announced. The fact that you’re grateful for the advice to hold that drop and lose money is bonkers.

🤣🤣

Ben - “ I've been a slow learner on this stock also. I bought in June at 0.85p then increased my stake during the cln phase. Unfortunately I massively underestimated how low the stock price could go.”

Best of luck to you. LSE bulletin boards can be a shark pool. I hope you didn’t lose all that money to posters claiming inside information about a big whale buying up the CLN shares, or expert assurances that no CLN holder would ever convert shares to sell at such a low price, or advice to hold those shares all the way down from 0.9 to 0.3 while the same posters were trading the price drop 🤔 Similarly hope you didn’t lose money to posters who attacked people for selling their shares at 0.9 when the CLN was announced, when you could have bought those shares back at less than half the price the day the CLN ended. Let’s hope the latest whale is a real one this time 😉

Excellent news on the available tie ins from 9 and 16 to intersect 27. That should be sufficient to bring the first plant up closer towards its operational capacity, and that increased inflow will be needed to stabilise the flow for the CO2 processing anyway. Getting the CO2 side of the business going will be a huge boost, potentially doubling the revenue stream when the customers can be secured (possibly worth even more than the helium offtake at beverage grade). All good.

Devon - the operator indicates that…

“each filled trailer represents a gross value of between US$59,500 and US$102,000”

If they can fill a trailer a week (maybe 7-10 days to start with) then that’s roughly $3-5m a year gross per year as a baseline, and hopefully increasing as flows increase and more wells are tied in, potentially doubling. And the CO2 could yield as much again when it comes on stream later this year. Then hopefully more wells feeding a second processing plant etc. All to play for.

No problem at all to allow the 17.5% royalty back into the trailer output if it helps, we’re estimating on a wider range anyway.

The plant is gathering gas from three wells, J31, J4 and J29.

The projected raw gas flow from those wells totals around 950Mscfd initially up to a maximum of 1500Mscfd (or roughly an output of 25-35Mscf refined helium per day to the tube trailer). The actual initial rate we don’t know of course.

The helium output capacity of the plant is around 72Mscf per day (2,200 per month), after royalties, so hopefully we’re on the way towards half of that. If you include the royalties then hopefully more.

Still struggling to find the data? As you should know, production data was published by the operator as post royalty (because the land owner has prior right of offtake to sell their portion of gas).

Let me know if you need that link.

Here’s a clue. The maximum nameplate capacity of helium output from the plant is around 72Mscf per day (2,200 per month), after royalty.

You might want to start then from the predicted initial stabilised flow rate from each of the three wells tied in. Maybe take the mid range for estimation. Multiply that by the helium concentration from each well. Allow for a processing efficiency of say 95%. That might give you a rough baseline for early output to trailer.

Repeat for the maximum projected flow from each well perhaps.

Nice try, but considering you’ve confused the helium processing plant capacity with the amine unit capacity for CO2 there may be some homework to do.

The information is readily available in the public domain. Let me know if you need links.

No, we’re waiting to hear whether the submersible pump test has gone to plan, whether it achieves a stabilised flow rate from the well, and whether the volume and composition of that flow validates the modelling underpinning the feasibility study.

The AI responses are a bit tedious but let’s focus n the basics. What is the nameplate capacity of the Pinon processing plant? What are the projected initial and maximal input flows from the three wells currently tied in? Let me know if you’d like a prompt on that.

To clarify, I don’t think there is any sign of delay at all. I’m not the one who posted that imminent news of flow test completion was due last Monday, or again this week. I don’t believe it is, therefore I don’t believe there’s a delay.

We don’t have confirmation of the actual production rate at the plant. We know three of the seven wells are tied in, and we know what the expected initial flow rates of those wells are (as well as the predicted maximum flows and the max capacity of the plant ). On that basis, plant might be receiving half of its intake capacity, or perhaps more. Once the next couple of wells are tied in then it might approach capacity. By that point they ought to be filling at least a trailer a week, but without knowing the initial production rate it’s impossible to know.

No idea but seems a fair assumption. If the entire installation process, checks and flow testing should have been completed in 2-3 weeks from delivery to site, as MC suggests, then there’s now an unexpected delay of 1-2 weeks. Alternatively, if the installation and checks are completed and the well testing starting then nothing to worry about. No doubt there’ll be an update either way.

In last week’s video Mike clearly says “we are currently running and installing” the ESP. “Running” means running the ESP assembly down the hole (a kilometre down) to position it for installation. It doesn’t mean running the flow test, at least that’s my reading which ties to the stages described in the RNS. Hopefully that’s done now anyway.