Member Info for Blubay

Nomad and compliance officer might even let the CEO speak once the trading is finished ;-)

Looks like the liquidity trading over the much anticipated test results is now winding down. A fairly well managed process from start to finish. Nice orderly price mark up to position ahead of the weekend, rising volume without widening volatility, absorbing supply without fomo. Big volume into the RNS on Monday morning with only a shallow initial retrace, no real dump, more like using the event to generate liquidity. Then stepping it down in a very managed way, controlled distribution, selling blocks into strength (sell, pause, rebuild, repeat). Again, no sign of pressured exit, just passive defence of managed trading floors/ceilings, no rush to dump or reaccumulate. Looks like that managed selling has pretty much exhausted today and the RSI is now climbing for the first time. So, I still believe the most likely scenario is a capital fund actor reducing their exposure into the RNS liquidity event, stepping back from their position but keeping their options open. It's what short term event-focused funds (like the CLN investors) exist to do. There might be another step down but hopefully the current consolidation might signal the end of the process. We'll see. GLA DYOR

HL isn’t on the list but seriously, no one is going to believe that the instis on that list are institutional ‘investors’ in HE1, other than to the extent that their clients had HE1 shares or that HE1 was a fractional component in an AIM oriented fund? That would be madder than the CLN ‘investor’ hoax or the mystery ‘whale’ theory.

These are not institutional investors, they are institutions that broker primarily retail accounts, ISAs, SIPPs etc.

It literally says in the RNS that they now need to design a new programme of appraisal by drilling in other parts of the licensed area and start looking for financing partner. I imagine they will do media when they have a plan to pitch for funding, or when there’s Galactica ramp up news.

I assume because it would be awkward to do a ProActive interview on slightly disappointing test when there’s work to do in designing a new forward plan of fundraising, drilling and appraisal now that they’re not in a position to proceed immediately with the original plan. I imagine there’ll be lots of media work as soon as they have developments to report. It would be good to hear more about development plans in Galactica too, once BNL have necessary funds to proceed further.

What price floor do you think the ‘whale’ buyer will be defending today? Perhaps 0.55 this morning and 0.5 this afternoon? Will their ‘buying’ volume continue to decrease as the price falls? Does this ‘buying’ behaviour seem at all counter intuitive, buying more shares at high prices and fewer at low prices?

There is no TR1. Shares blocks are being distributed rather than accumulated. The broker/MM continues to maintain an orderly market by managing the spread and the adjusting the price floor, rungs on a ladder as you can see on the past week’s chart. The price was bid up from Thursday in anticipation of the test result RNS and walking it down from the spike, churning into the event liquidity. It’s the same managed mechanism used to distribute the CLN shares, probably involving some of the same actors. Coincidentally accompanied by the same posters with the same narratives. DYOR

Is the ESP programme ‘ongoing’?

The rig was fully operational for the test not hot stacked. We don’t know if they’ve withdrawn the pump assembly string after concluding the test but the rig is probably still fully rigged for the moment. If they do decide to relocate with a new funding partner then the whole thing has to be stripped down (although it’s self mobile, it’s also too heavy for the TZ highways trucking weight limit).

No UT either yesterday or today, only about £600 the day before, tightly managed market

"Who do you think is selling this massive volume Blubay? Could it be the stub of 200-300m shares held by the CLN being sold at 200-300% profit?"

Yes, pretty much that would be first hunch. Given the margin on the CLN and the method of distribution through cross traded blocks at false prices, I would imagine that an equity arm of one of the event based capital funds held onto a speculative tranche and trades on that speculatively or in an event based way (or crosses blocks of shares back to the events based fund arm). My hunch would be that a small-mid fund actor having a holding going into the ESP test results event has derisked their position into the event liquidity by perhaps 150-300m shares. I find it more persuasive than the mystery shopper. I can see case of building a position on Galactica sales but Rukwa testing was the big open question and that's been kicked into the longer grass for the moment, so derisking without exiting makes sense. Purely hypothetical of course. I have no evidence of that. I may be wrong.

Which bit of the RNS is 'great'? The whole point is that the RNS reported somewhat suboptimal results (not disastrous but significantly altering the proposed development plan, timescale and funding options in Tanzania) and that's why large actor(s) have been derisking their books into the event liquidity. How this is not self evident is beyond me. I did try to signal the risk as soon as the RNS was published when the price was around 1p. You can take a horse to water... GLA DYOR

To be honest, what gets tedious is the degree of deception and market manipulation posted on these boards and the amount AI generated wallpaper used to dress it up. Your claim that benevolent CLN investors never sell shares was utter nonsense. Even the tea lady in the brokers office would have spotted that one. Mystery whales buying up hundreds of millions of shares on a bad news RNS is equally bananas.

“the constant printing of multi-million share blocks at the mid-price (0.597/0.599) confirms an institutional "cross," where a large seller is bleeding out their position…”.

We agree. So far so good. The broker/MM needs to maintain an orderly market while distributing those shares, which they have been trying to do via managing the spread. Today’s 55 ‘floor’ was previously a 70 floor and before that an 85 floor. How much more stock is there to shift and how much lower might they drop the managed floor? The hungry whale seems a more speculative addition to the bullish story, but let’s await the evidence if it’s coming.

I’m not sure you’re in a position to school anyone on market dynamics after falsely schooling everyone about the dynamics of CLN financing and distribution last time around, which was completely false and misleading.

In what sense was the news ‘amazing’? Which bit?

Spread is wide open now, more than 12% which should cap the trading liquidity apart from anyone who urgently needs to sell

Why do you believe there is a secret buying whale Toffers? Genuine question.

The spread widened today after being very tight into the close yesterday, 69/70 yesterday, 58/62 today

I would be surprised if anything on this discussion board moved the share price. I'm just trying to understand the results and the commentary on market reaction. I'd be interested in other interpretations.