Member Info for Blubay

More of a buy in than a buy out. Orca is also small cap, but capital financing leveraged against proven NAV (either against the HE1 asset or against Orca's existing gas fields). Probably needs about $100m capex to bring the helium into production for a share of multi-billion revenues. I've no doubt the majors will be looking at HE1 for a buy but I wouldn't be surprised if they try to keep it in the family and with the close government ties (neither Air Liquide or Linde have an active presence in Tanzania yet, although Shell, Exxon and Equinor are involved in building the gas terminal port). Just a thought anyway.

Either that, or Orca Energy buys out the helium gas production/distribution, which would make complete sense also

The company's website prospectus could also not be clearer... "Helium One was founded to explore, develop, and ultimately, become a producer of low-carbon helium...". They intend to become a 'producer' of helium themselves, not just an explorer. Look at the changes made to restructure the company and board composition since last year. Check out the commercial director (former head of commercial at Tanzanian-focused Orca Energy) and non-exec director (also the former CEO/CFO of Orca Energy in Tanzania) and the non-exec chairman (also VP Exploration at Orca). Orca is a producer, operating the Songo Songo offshore gas field supplying Tanzania and is focused on "Supporting the economic and industrial growth of Tanzania" in long-standing collaboration with the government, local workforce development etc. Given Lorna's also strong East Africa track record, they are collectively better connected to move into production growth than any other local player. I don't believe they will be selling the company (although I wouldn't be surprised if they also hive off a Lorna Blaisse led exploration company under East Africa Holdings Ltd, which I think owns HE1's drilling ops).

You wouldn't bet your house on either, that would be foolish

How do you know Naheed didn’t buy last week to become a long term holder? Seems perfectly reasonable Roger. Might be true, might not. We’d all be better off not getting triggered by other people’s posts. It is what it is, these boards are often overrun by trolls and fake posts, no point sweating it.

Simple - “ Its volume of the reserves available that makes a discovery commercial not density of a sample”

That’s true in way, but we already have a fairly good estimate of the total field reserve, based on a decade of scientific and exploratory analysis. But you’re right that volumetric analysis and flow data need to be confirmed and combined, along with the petrochemical analysis, to establish what could be commercially extractable at what cost. However, I think we can be confident it’s a large enough number.

Noble sent theirs before Christmas and published verified results yesterday

But the liquidity of trading really helps to churn shares and whittle away overhang.

Rubbish, it’s not ‘family members’, that wouldn’t have any effect on volume of shares. It’s just normal trading after news or placements, profit taking, boredom, the herd moves on. People are always keen to lose their takings on another shiny share. Bitcoin also taking a run today, so an amount of risk money also heading into crypto stocks this afternoon.

Mega RNS Monday, worldwide media coverage yesterday and now you think there’s a ‘news drought’. Attention span of a goldfish in this board 🤣

Yes, Liberum are always the wild card in terms of what the board can do in the market. They’re not only the regulatory advisor and the joint broker for this share, but also one of the market makers.

Yes, certainly you need to factor in probably $100m over two years, with prospect of perhaps $500m per year gross revenue prospect

That’s how prospecting works TK, all about scaling and leveraging investment on a risk-reward basis. Drilling is expensive and complicated, the rewards are enormous. The successful companies are those that manage to de-risk at each stage of investment so that value holds. This is where proven reserves make all the difference.

The placing has been done yesterday and based on the price drop the day before, and the huge volume churn since, that most of the shares have already been flipped in advance / on anticipation.

Oops, typo, that was meant to be 60 million 🤣

Another 600 million shares traded and reported after hours yesterday, more to come on today’s book

I think it will be pretty quick but wouldn’t like to put a time on it

Yes, but those posters were also right. The share was being heavily shorted and lost nearly 98% of value in that period. It was the ramping posters that encouraged people to lose money at that time. You can’t be a perma bull or bear, you have to adapt to circumstances

Once all the data from wire lining and stem testing is analysed there will be a more detailed research note on which to base a market estimate of proven reserves. Ideally that would be validated by independent authority. No major is going to commit millions without validated analysis as part of their DD. One or two hedge funds/banks might be in but the long investors simply don’t take risks. But they should have the data to do that fairly quickly now.

Yes, they chose to align the company with O&G protocols, so they cannot use the word ‘discovery’ unless they have validated against the criteria.