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Let’s hope so

Tuesday would be a good bet for an RNS

The application deadline is 17 September (next Tuesday, much sooner than two weeks). Hopefully we see an RNS to confirm once it’s done.

Dazes, to assist those of us who are lacking your inside information, what is your evidence that the Rukwa project is ‘almost certainly not commercially viable’ when the CEO says it demonstrates positive economics for the company and achieves their commercial milestone. Just the evidence please, what are we missing?

Herbie - “Great for people buying now”

Let’s stick with that advice then shall we? I’m assuming the 2p ceiling you’ve just made up so we can review that later when we get there

Prospective resource for Itumbula was initially 5.4bcf (pre IPO), that may be revised of course

“Initial estimates are 138BCF”

That’s for the whole of Rukwa, totalling up initial estimates for all the prospects, don’t expect that figure just for Tai/Itumbula project

The Takeover Code only applies to AIM-listed companies 'centrally managed and controlled' in the UK, Channel Islands or Isle of Man (up to the takeover panel to determine what that means, but the test is mainly on where the board members are resident, which in this case is in the UK).

For goodness sake Shawz, you know as well as anyone else they can't categorically declare a commercial discovery without independent verification of the proven reserves. However, they can use any other language they like to infer it. The RNS declares that their own modelling demonstrates 'positive economics' for the company. The CEO refers specifically to having reached their 'commercial milestone'. I'm not sure how many more metaphors you need.

You're right that the market needs more information to ascertain the degree and timescale of that commerciality. But we do already know that it assumes a major scale development project supporting 20-30 wells. We can clearly infer that HE1 will not be funding that on their own (with share placements) and they have already stated that they plan to approach major banks and off takers for project funding (e.g. via an SPV).

It's simply disingenuous to assert that something is not commercial when you have no evidence to support your claim and when the company says the opposite. If you have evidence then present it.

Next RNS is likely to be confirmation of the mining licence application. Hopefully they include some key points from the feasibility study and plans for independent verification of proven reserve estimates.

Quoting from the CEO interview...

"declaring a commercial milestone is one that ultimately demonstrates those positive economics, and an economically viable project in the longer term, and we certainly feel at this stage that we've reached those milestones. Obviously there are other factors as well as Capex and Opex that must be considered, and currently all of those indications are also looking positive" ... "these results are... all that we had hoped for".

https://youtu.be/s7T5h4qi28c?feature=shared&t=359

What are you talking about? Blue Star isn’t suspended. Their share price is up 25% today!

In broad terms, they have a legal obligation to inform the market of material facts that may affect share value at the earliest opportunity. So, once the feasibility studies are complete it would be contentious not to do so (although to be fair, they’ve already informed the market that their internal modelling demonstrate positive economics to the company for a large scale development project).

Yes, it would be surprising if there was not an RNS informing the market of completion of the licence application because they previously went to the market to raise the capital for that milestone. They must be careful not to prejudge the outcome and they will need to limit commercially sensitive information, before independent verification, but hopefully they will inform the market of the key points concerning the commercial case.

I don’t see anyone ramping here today, just yourself and the short crew deramping. Am I missing something?

I think mainly because the assumptions are still speculative until (a) the proven reserve estimates are published for the Rukwa (b) the Colorado deal is signed. Lots of positive news flow expected but in the absence of news AIM shares usually falter. Add to that the fact that HE1 is one of the most traded shares on AIM (short term traders) and is at least two thirds retail. It’s not that surprising to see it stopped at placing price pending next move.

Either you don't understand what project funding means NewboF or you choose to ignore it. There is no way HE1 will be funding a major 20-30 well development out of share placing. As they have clearly stated already, they will be approaching major banks or industry partners etc for that kind of funding, once they have a licence.

Quoting from the CEO interview...

"declaring a commercial milestone is one that ultimately demonstrates those positive economics, and an economically viable project in the longer term, and we certainly feel at this stage that we've reached those milestones. Obviously there are other factors as well as Capex and Opex that must be considered, and currently all of those indications are also looking positive" ... "these results are... all that we had hoped for".

https://youtu.be/s7T5h4qi28c?feature=shared&t=359

They are funded to complete submission of a mining licence application for Rukwa in less than two weeks

They are then funded for basic working capital until at least the middle of 2025

They are also funded to drill six new development wells in Colarado, which will produce income in 2025

They have no debt

Share placement is not on the table for commercial development at scale at Rukwa, that will require project funding

Not sure what you mean rylidan? The company has working capital at least until the middle of 2025, and development capital to drill 6 new wells at the Colorado project, while waiting for award of a mining licence for the Rukwa project. All this due to progress over the next few weeks. What makes you think they have insufficient funds or a lack of news coming?