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And simply cannot start calculating revenue from gross reserve estimates, let alone guesstimates

I don’t think that’s what it means at all. Obviously you’d expect the total estimated reserves to be well above that, given the initial estimates for Itumbula were above 5bcf. The ‘global significance’ was more about the high percentage of helium flowing without hydrocarbons and the geological uniqueness of the basement system.

The procedure is online and/or in person. I suspect they will ensure evidence of a physical handover given the corporate risk involved. But I don’t think the CEO will be going back to TZ just for a photo op at the Ministry and likewise the Ministry can’t really show any apparent favour to a commercial assessment process. I may be wrong. Then again, this ministry does like to capitalise on any news favourable to its current mining strategy.

Could you summarise your calculation of a fair cap?

“Lorna said ML application within two weeks, not an exact time frame”

Of course it’s an exact timeframe. The deadline for the application is tomorrow. It will be submitted tomorrow.

What’s the point in reposting three year old survey data. We all know it’s a huge potential reserve. That’s not at issue. The question is what proportion can be categorised as actual (recoverable) reserves following the Tai and Itumbula drills and tests, what is contingent on future advances, and what remains potential. If the only conclusion is that there is still 138bcf of potential reserves then there’s been no gain from the past three years exploration. We know that’s not the case, and we know they can probably flow half a million cubic feet of helium a day from one well, but we don’t know the extent of recoverable resources or the likely cost of recovery. Knowing what we knew in 2021 doesn’t really help anyone.

There is a set date but it’s not today. Deadline for the application is tomorrow, next RNS might come then or the day after. I wouldn’t bank on it containing much detail although it’s possible.

“Just doesn't add up I think to enough ROI.”

But you don’t have the data or the model, or the expertise, so how do you know it doesn’t add up?

If AIM share holdings become no longer exempt from Inheritance Tax there may be a big shake down on AIM, and possibly in anticipation

Very difficult to guess the size of the prize without more detail. I think the initial surveys estimated the prospective resources at Itumbula to be around 5.4bcf helium (out of a total 138bcf for all the Rukwa prospects) but we have no idea if that is to be revised up/down in the model, how it will be divided between estimations of actual, contingent or potential resources, and whether Tai also figures in the development plan. It's also hard to know how to interpret the differences in flow estimates reported from from the DST versus the EWT at ITW1 (e.g. are we looking at 0.5mmscf as a minimum or maximum). Lots of dots to join up when we learn more about the modelling. I'm not expecting rockets yet but hopefully a bit of a booster.

No, you’re using GBP on one side but GBX on the other. For £100m it’s GBP 0.0165 or GBX 1.65

Check your decimal places, 100,000,000 ÷ 5,910,000,000 = 0.0165 GBP (1.65p)

Did you notice they changed the website search engine tag to "industrial gas manufacturing company"? ;-)

The original development concept (2023 pre drilling and feasibility study) was for 6 wells feeding a modular type purification and liquidation plant at a cost of approximately $86m Capex ($38m plant, $48m wells and gathering), plus $1m per year opex, producing just over 1mmcf/day helium. A lot of assumptions will have changed since then.

I think you're being optimistic about the chances of (a) Rukwa news on Monday, (b) Galactica revenue by January.

"Always think the worst case scenario"

Not sure any of us would ever invest in anything or make any money doing that. How about looking for a realistic scenario somewhere between "the worst case" and "rockets"? Submitting the Rukwa mining licence application with initial modelling of its commerciality will be a big step for a small company, but we know the project is large and will need artificial lift and a larger number of exploration wells than originally assumed. I don't think anyone here has a clue how the proven and contingent reserve estimates will actually come out in the complex modelling (the pre-drilling recoverable estimates for Itumbula were about 5.4bcf). There's also some gaps between the DST and EWT findings that will benefit from more explanation.

Toffers, try to slow down a bit and actually look at the detail of what you're posting. The reason for giving you the list of institutions is precisely to demonstrate that they are not 'institutional investors'. They are stock brokers representing retail investors on their platforms. It's not that complicated.

"Number crunching with 5,910,000,000 (billion) shares in issue."

That's pounds not pennies

You're joking? You closed your short yesterday and now you've sold those shares at a lower price? How does that work?

We've given you the lists Toffers, you're welcome to go through them