Member Info for Blubay

I'd agree with that, more likely to be a slow burn over the next year than a gap up, although that could happen if there was a transformative financing deal, or some major government support for the new industry. The big unknown is still the confirmation of reserve estimates and field engineering assumptions for Rukwa. We still have no idea how much recoverable gas at what cost and rate of production (other than extrapolating from the incomplete EWT results). Hopefully they can build up some commercial surety in Colorado before we need to revisit those contingencies.

That's nonsense Artisanal. Loads of exploration companies see huge share price gains without any cash flow, depending on valuation of their discoveries. I agree the transformational factor here will be moving from explorer to producer over the next 12 months or so, but to suggest actual cash flow is the only factor is just silly. There's a fairly high chance the SP would rise if there is any evidence confirming the scale of recoverable reserves (that's been the big sticking point since the EWT surely), or if there is any talk of non-dilutive financing for commercial development (which is always the background concern for shareholders). Similarly if commercial extraction in Colorado project becomes de-risked at each drill stage you'd expect the SP to rise a bit in anticipation of the early cash flow. No guarantees of course

Do you think the ML announcement will make much difference, or is it about other information that might be revealed with it?

What were you expecting?

One of the purposes of trolling is to inhibit or obscure any kind of rational discussion so boards can be more easily dominated by sentiment based trading (in either direction). It makes them more easily manipulated.

Sounds good. I think my preference would be to spin some value out of the first Colorado drills so the SP might creep a bit higher before the ML hits, and so not to compress all the valuable news into one quarter, but we’ll have no choice in it either way.

Given that there are some very important people near the bottom, I wouldn’t read too much into the web display settings. I’d be slightly more excited if they had mentioned helium somewhere among the key resources identified in the conference briefing.

She’s not making a speech, she’s one of five people on a discussion panel.

Sure it’s easy to pick any start date to suit any narrative, high or low, equally valid. We began the year at 0.25p and it’s now over 1p. If you bought high then it will look different than if you bought low but looking at the average over the year I suspect most remaining are close to even at the moment. Totally accept some will be more underwater but the past has no market relevance to the future. We are where we are now at 1p, which in the whole looks quite promising.

I completely empathise that you'd like it to be "fast tracked and be ready in time for Lorna's speech" but why do you think it will be? The conference was organised a long time before any consideration of the licence application and HE1 is only a small player in it. I'm not sure it makes any difference to HE1's investor PR activities in Tanzania. They've completed a decade of exploration and a full licence application and everyone assumes it will be approved (it would be remarkable if it wasn't). It would be nice to reference it but I can't see why it would be pre-requisite to the conference, unless the Ministry were planning to make some big announcement on investing in a helium industry, but it isn't flagged in the conference PR (they mention gold, nickel, cobalt, copper, uranium and tanzanite).

Broomtree, I was responding to the comment about 2.6bn shares being issued. 2.3bn of those were issued a year ago, since when the price increased from 0.25p to 1p, hence the reference. Yes, a smaller number of shares were issued since at 0.5p and 1.09p. For the 10% of shares issued at 1.09p they might have dropped 7% but the vast majority were issued at 0.25p, when I bought them in the December round so the comment was coloured by that.

It was always a false expectation, persistently ramped by people saying ‘any day now’ almost from the day of submission. Just as bad as the people saying placing ‘any day now’ every day since the last placing. The company is best placed to know what the in country intelligence is, including political intelligence, which is why they explicitly referred to their in country team’s estimate of the timescale when briefing the market. If they had any inside information to the contrary then their briefing would have been different. She said ‘after around three months’ and ‘hopefully by the end of the year’’, based on their in country team’s information about the current process. I can’t see any reason to doubt their best estimate, other than anything is possible.

She never said “three weeks to three months”, she may have mentioned from a few weeks. Someone on this board put forward the idea that “a few” meant anything from three weeks a d was pulled up on it but persisted to raise that expectation. LB clearly said in interview that she expected the licence to be awarded “after around three months”, based on their in country information.

It’s up more than 300% since those shares were issued

Unfortunately shorts are just as invested as longs, often at more risk, you can’t have a market with one and not the other, takes all sorts.

Agreed, but all that’s laughable enough to ignore, unlike some of the more manipulative yet vaguely plausible myths about imminent bankruptcy and dilution.

Rukwa is a massively valuable helium asset, there’s no myth about that. Its commercial viability depends on many things though, one which is the will of the TZ government to develop a helium industry. It’s fair to assume that it would be quite challenging for a small company like HE1 to make it commercial like they can in Colorado. They’ll need help for sure, but that doesn’t make it a myth.

"30-DAY NOTICE LETTER – NEW DRILLS

Rule 305 drilling and re-entry

Required on all fee and state lands

Must be submitted to the county – local government designee (LGD)

*Must include one copy with application*

Must include a copy of Commission’s informational brochure for surface owners

May be waived by surface owner"

https://ecmc.state.co.us/forms/instructions/Form2_inst.htm

Hemo, I think the Form 2 process includes the 30 day notice rule 305, as the applicant has to include a copy of the letter of notification to the land owner (who may also waive the right to notification).

And the unnamed customer won off the back of that relationship would probably be Sika? This all looks great, on top of the assumed deal with Amazon.