Member Info for Blubay

Yes, a broker's desk in a bank that also employs a MM desk (and hypothetically, a NOMAD) can trade what it likes, because the market functions of the desks are separated (allegedly). There is of course nothing to stop the NOMAD having a round of golf with the broker and the MM the day before approving an RNS.

The main asset is the company listing on the London stock exchange and millions in tax deductible losses. That’s very attractive for any explorer looking for a listing, so probably they’ll try to rinse and repeat what they did with Tulip/Rhine

Over 3p now

No, it's much better and just what we were waiting for, certainly concrete enough to merit an interview this week

2.65 / 2.80 but NT to buy on some platforms

Yes, much more the kind of news today that will merit interview questioning

I’m impressed there were no obvious broker leaks yesterday or large late reported trades, it’s unusual on AIM, unless yesterday’s RNS provided some cover for the early bird trades. Should be good today.

Good news indeed and only minimal delay, trials to commence before end Q1 2025.

He didn’t do an interview today as you predicted so I think he’s likely to do one until there’s something more concrete to report. I wouldn’t have expected one after speaking to the AGM. The SP reacted well to the RNS without one, which is good, so nothing lost.

Sorry, I just meant that we’ve had two RNS updates this week and today’s is the only concrete achievement reported so far, so we can probably conclude there’s nothing more to say yet and that demands for a CEO interview wouldn’t be well timed until there is, hopefully this quarter.

They bought a 50% share in the project, including 50% interest in BNL’s additional licence areas. They don’t own any of BNL as a company or have any rights to.

Given all the assurances in regulatory news announcements then I also fully expect them to deliver on at least one of the commitments by the end of the year, at which point an interview would be great. Otherwise we're not much further on than we were a year ago. I'm hopeful but we're lacking concrete updates and considering they've just put out an RNS on today's news with no reference to any other developments I'm assuming there isn't any noteworthy development yet to report. Looking forward to the next announcement.

Yes, thanks I wrote 675mmcf (million) and meant to put 0.675 billion in brackets

Sure, but all the things in the AGM statement remain either somewhat vague or contingent, so I presume they're not really in a position to confirm or deny if they will be able to deliver on them. If any of the various Q4 aspirations turn into concrete developments then I can see an interview would be beneficial. At the moment I'd be slightly wary of just reinforcing the lack of achievement this year, but we've a month or so to redeem that so fingers crossed!

It's likely to be a key consideration for the ESIA certification, and under a different Ministry to the mining interests

https://www.rukwabasin.go.tz/

Liberating helium gas from water at surface temperature and pressure isn't difficult at all, it never dissolves in the first place so it literally bubbles out when pressure allows. The challenge is how to handle that much water in a processing plant and what to do with it afterwards, especially in an area of high environmental concern for managed water supply (but if the deep water can be commercialised to irrigation users and not mess up any vital ground aquifers then happy days for everyone).

It's not 'too good to be true' at all. It's looks like a pretty moderate return on investment for the speculative risk involved, maybe 30-50% over five years for several million dollars and half the drilling risks. HE1 had been looking at potential acquisitions for a year or so, and it's a way better position for BNL to end up in equal shares with them than getting taken out by a hostile predator.

It's roughly a minimum expectation I think. Obviously the parameters are wide open, helium spot price could be double the minimum assumption (or more). The flow from each well could be more (or less). The concentration could be higher (or lower). It could be $5m a year, or $1m. Just have to trust the independent estimates and keep on eye out for revisions along the way. The more immediate challenge is keeping the costs on or below budget. I suspect BNL has basically no headroom to raise again for any additional liability (maybe they would just forfeit some licences or a larger share of the project if HE1 had to cover additional costs?). I still suspect HE1 might end up taking over the project or the company one day.

Or to put it another way,

1 well = 5,000 scfd = 5Mcf = $2,500 per day (minimum) = >1.8Mmcf per year = c. $1m per year per well (very roughly)

15 wells = $15m per year gross, minus capex and opex = maybe $4-5m per year net (assumed from the RNS?), divided between BNL and HE1

That's just for the helium, so add something for the CO2, but all very speculative at this stage.

The numbers can only be estimated from the opinion published in the ASX/RNS concerning the acquisition (and HE1 will have done a lot of DD on the geological and operational risking to come up with the offer/budget per well agreed). So you have an independent estimate of 675 Mmcf reserves (i.e. 0.657 million cubic feet), and you have one well already flowing, with an independent engineering assessment of stabilised production optimisation in the range of 250-350 Mscfd (i.e. thousand standard cubic feet per day), at 1.9% helium. So, that's maybe somewhere in the region of 5,000 to 6,000 scfd helium (4,750 to 6,650 ) per well per day, x 15, if they all worked out similar (but adjacent wells at Red Rock have flowed over 400 Mscfd at up 6%, so could be more, or less). But you don't really need to work it out because they've already given you the financial projection in the RNS, based on an independent assessment of approx $2m per year for HE1's half share of net proceeds over the next five years. But that's only the helium. There is also an established market for the CO2, which is 70% of the gas flowing from the first well. So it could end up as $3m per year or it could be more. Feel free to correct my back of the envelope assumptions, or read the RNS.