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There is no slippage at all HMS, the 16 April RNS predicted
"...release of the rig is now expected at the end of April 2024" and "Side track operations are expected to commence around seven days after mobilisation. The side track operation itself is expected to take approximately 14 days".
That is exactly what the 29 April RNS confirms, rig released, mobilisation of a week, drilling from around 8 May, then two weeks. No delay at all from previous position.
"If they do raise by the issuing of more shares then of course this will dip back under 1p"
I don't think you can assume that. If they place shares above 1p there is no necessary reason that the SP dips below 1p.
"Definitely feels like the market knows based on the heavy selling today."
What selling? The SP has moved less than 2% in a week (up not down), more than 10% up over the past month, and it's the same price it was three weeks ago. It looks rather stable at the moment with very average daily volume and very low volatility.
It's not 'extremely worrying' at all unless you've chosen to trap yourself in some kind of risk investment or leverage you can't get out of. The company has been clear about the immediate next steps, based on the last raise, giving them time to prepare next steps and develop a plan to model and commercialise the resource. Everyone knows they will need more capital for the EWT at Itumbula or/and deepening the well at Tai. As long as you factor in a possible raise to cover that what is there to worry about? It's an AIM prospecting share, none of these companies have any income, they exist solely to tap into risk capital investment, which bears a high market cost. If you don't want that risk invest in FTSE100 shares.
It's trading less than half the recent daily volume, no chance of fireworks at this level with billions of shares floating around. The outlier MMs go to more extreme spreads when they aren't interested, leaving the ones in the middle to soak up what trade there is.
"i'm still in contemplation mode"
No change there then ;-) There should be plenty of time to get in here as the oil and news starts to flow. The board's long term development strategy was always the more interesting investment proposition, but contingent on getting some cash flow from this starter venture to make any kind of start on that.
Including the quuotes...
"...the Minister highlighted the need for substantial investments in strategic and rare minerals, such as graphite, coal, helium, and metal ores. These are crucial for technological advancements and are pivotal in positioning Tanzania as a leader in the mining sector across Africa."
"Supporting Small-Scale Miners: The Minister detailed plans under the Mining Vision 2030, themed “Minerals are Life and Wealth,” focusing on empowering small-scale miners. This initiative includes identifying mineral-rich areas, providing necessary licenses, and implementing the Sustainable Productive Mining Program (MBT), which is particularly aimed at empowering women and youth in mining with the right tools and resources."
"Do the board actually have a long term plan..."
They have had a long term strategy for some time, aiming to be in commercial production of helium at some point in 2025. The actual plan is contingent on the detailed testing, modelling and design options/costings that they are working on now. There's no way a major JV partner is going to come in before that work is completed and there is a clear understanding of costs and risks (but we're led to believe they have had some preliminary conversations along the way). The price of success or failure is the ability to raise enough capital to make those plans a reality. AIM companies without revenue income are wholly dependent on capital fundraising to get them over the line to commercial viability, many fail. It's the same with every AIM company, otherwise they wouldn't be listed on AIM (the whole point of AIM is to provide a less regulated public listing for high risk small cap companies that can't raise capital by other means). The companies that do make money on AIM are the investment banks, brokers and market makers for whom the fundraises offer lower risk via discounted placements etc. That's just how it is, which is why no-one bets more than they can afford to lose on AIM shares.
We already have independently verified results from the well drill, they were done onsite by a third party with industry standard lab faculties. The EWT and modelling will flesh out those results and add to them, in the second half of the year.
AIM stocks are inherently risky. Holding AIM shares on your books is inherently risky. MMs manage that risk and make their money from the spread between bid/offer (although other sections of the same companies also make money from managing IPOs and fund raises for AIM companies as brokers and NOMADs - e.g. Liberum acts as MM, broker and NOMAD for HE1). Those companies have had a very lean time of it since the Covid pandemic, due to the reduced number of IPOs from which to profit (e.g. Liberum had their first trading loss in history), so frankly they are all squeezing their remaining AIM client companies as much as they can the past year or so.