Member Info for bloodninja

To reiterate, banking news extremely unlikely to be concluded ahead of Q4 results given where we are now, IMO.

Optimism always welcome but need to be realistic here, company is currently priced just above failure, while a significant rerate is on the cards a lot needs to be in place for that to happen. No bank will give a decent refinance deal based on the last set of quarterlys, so please do refrain from blindly stating how entitled we are to great refi deal and look at facts. Share price is linked to performance of company, as I said before, the market will price in the refinance as a given when results dictate such a refinance will be forthcoming, which it currently will not be, hence the long delays. DB hoped it would be sorted/concluded in Q4 but it is entirely out of his hands so don't be surprised at an RNS stating it is still ongoing.

Still holding as I have faith in this, so not deramping here, just stating my view from a finance-career perspective

Any debt-to-equity swap wouldn't be at some multiple of current share price in my experience, that would be catastrophic news for the current share price due to the mass dilution.

Ultimately the aim here is for costs roughly 50% of current gold price, that would debt repaid from net income in c2.5 years, pad out all the numbers and you get to a 5 year repayment term, with residual years of mine life operating at full divi. The market will price that in the moment its agreed and share price could explode, however it won't happen while the company cannot demonstrate cost efficiency. Hence, improved results > refinance deal at this time.

Happy to be proved wrong, and if DB has got a stonking deal then he's got one over on the bankers, highly doubtful though, banks are in the driving seat so that why talk of refinance in Q4 by DB is irrelevant as banks could drag that out for another set of quarterly financials to get any deal approved internally.

Upside though, the market views this share on the basis I've described above, hence current price. So if you believe in a long term cost efficiency being achieved then it's a seemingly no brainer investment at current levels

AIMHO GLA etc etc

To reiterate my point in a blunt fashion, and this will sound a tad negative:

If this company is so good and has so much potential why should the banks take a hit?

Answer: they won't. If they see what the investors see then they'll know they'll get every penny back plus interest, eventually.

Been here since 0.055 when Suhail was only person posting all of his research and views, worth pointing out that that's all it was, his view, he didn't force anyone to buy here. I did, and have made some decent profits which I've since sliced and am on a free ride. Wasn't sliced at 0.40 though, greed set in and waited for 0.50!

Someone mentioned trading this share currently and that is a fair strategy given current movements, however if serious speculators enter the mix then the lows we've seen recently may not come around again so soon. It is a speculation play but there's a huge upside if Suhails prediction comes through, if not, then yes it's just another cash shell.

My two cents

If you say so, I've worked in corporate lending/finance for >20 years so just providing what I consider a relatively informed view. Let's see what comes!

I'd be surprised if banking news comes out at this point, unless the lenders have been privy to monthly MI that shows improved costs.

Per my recent post, a refinance deal will be better when AISC is proved as reducing, otherwise any refinance will incorporate onerous terms and targets which if not met put us right back in the same position.

Given six weeks until next results released, I would attribute rises to people getting in early on the expectation that results show reduced AISC and that a neat banking package will follow shortly thereafter.


Just my view, happy to hear others perspecrives

The gold price is excellent for MTL however the primary focus is still on cost reduction and efficiency improvement in next figures (mid Feb?). If AISC have down while gold sales have occurred at c1600 then we are into the next chapter. As I said before, my view is that debt refinance will come after the next set of results, and if the latter show the improvements we need to be sustainable then share price will rapidly factor in positive refinance upon said results (I.e. buy the rumour, sell the news)

I am a holder just before I state the following; I wouldn't expect banking/finance to be resolved any time soon, having worked in finance my view is that clear bottom line revenue production (I.e. one off costs flushed through) needs to be visible before providing a longer term commitment for debt. Alternatively, if a refinance deal comes ahead of such confirmation, you can expect it to be more onerous on the borrower, with multiple milestones and severe penalties if said milestones aren't reached.

Accordingly there's no desire here for a swift refinance deal, the sp mover will be improving quarterly figures, especially with regard to cost reduction and efficiency. Once such figures land, the market will price accordingly as it will expect the refinance to follow on more acceptable terms.

Just my two cents

Still holding here, and the optimism is appreciated on this board. The real focus though is the AISC which is far too high currently, I don't believe the last update broke down the exceptional/one-off (hopefully) costs that are contributing to this high AISC level, but would be helpful to understand what a typical AISC for MTL would be once these one-offs have flushed through. I'm confident the net income on that basis will make the current mkt cap look ridiculous!

Mibo please explain to me why the SP made such significant gains in anticipation of disposal?

Why? Please do back up your **** chat

Or RNS lands as expected this week, with cash consideration more straight forward method by which to complete the disposal, the delays likely down to a desire to amend consideration to cash from shares, well now that's done there should not be a requirement for further extensions, thus, this is the week for completion.

Share price will move so quickly upon disposal RNS it's a case of take shares ahead of time and be ready, or miss out and pay far more for the second round (RTO speculation)

Still here, still holding

On the basis the share price is up c35% in the last two months with no update provided in that time some folks somewhere are expecting big things! Each update has shown improvements in gold production and efficiency issues being addressed so the confidence stems from this trend continuing / improving. It's anticipated that the latter will also facilitate a realistic debt restructure with the lenders, compounded by a rising gold price and 7 odd years of mine-life remaining.

Lee/Roy/Shin/Adam feel free to correct on anything I've stated above, you guys are well researched on this share

Still here too, waiting on finance update to see where we're at

UK companies pay Corporation Tax on property disposals, not Capital Gains Tax.

Just now

Controversial post incoming, welcome views though: What's to stop the banks introducing a dividend block covenant, with thresholds tied to repayments? A/any finance deal is certainly going to be welcome, but my view is that investors should be aware this is definitely a jam-tomorrow holding. A flurry of improvements/positive news flow should see price trickle up but material gains/dividends are way way off. I am a holder here as I believe, along with Lee et al, that the upside is huge, but it's a long lead in from this point. Change my mind!

Standstill agreement per RNS (that doesn't show on lse RNS list for some reason) states: "The Standstill period is to apply until 11.59pm Hong Kong time on 2 May 2019. Under the Standstill the Company will have the right to request a further extension to the Standstill period should it consider this necessary." So update by next Thursday 3.59pm latest hopefully

Is this company currently technically insolvent? By definition of insolvent, yes; it is unable to pay it's debts and has said as much in an RNS. This is only due to near term debt maturity: consider mine life, profitability (now achieved at sub-nameplate levels nonetheless), and strategic plan in place to increase profitability (new management, new equipment investment etc.). The latter feeds into the lenders decision making on whether to extend debt, and it this appears highly likely that they will reach a manageable debt structure (they're more likely to get repaid in full too if they do). Good opportunity to get in today, my view is that subsequent updates from the company will be positively received. GLA, DYOR