Member Info for bloodninja

Absolutely Truthfactory, I personally think it's going to go below zero

It's an introduction to the minus 5% a day club for the new investors! It's so good here honestly, us holder be it long or short term are all very happy, we re curious as to whether the minus 5% a day will continue past zero, while theoretically impossible we rule nothing out in terms of impossible performance for this share. Guess our 49% stake in a trading company that's thriving and making bumper revenues and profits is decreasing in value by the day!

Can't buy in any volume whatsoever! So who's bagging shares at the advertised price?? MMs classic play, look forward to buying them off the MMs when they jack up the price

Drop all well and and good but can't buy sub 57.50

It's when it's the other way round you want to worry, then everything said can be rolled back to "yes but see what we said in the RNS"

What is a PLC more likely to get wrong? Something in black and white writing or something spoken verbally? The latter easily done but any RNS has to stand up to scrutiny and they're in the public domain forever

Forgot to post it:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavirus/uk-paid-dollar20-million-for-new-coronavirus-tests-they-didnt-work/ar-BB12Lr6E?li=BBoPRmx

Interesting article, highlights extreme demand for our product from UK government. This also suggests timing is quite a way out, so if AVCT can pull it out first I can't see why a rather profitable Government contract won't be on the cards

My short view - CV not going away soon, economies in tatters unless we find a way to 'carry on', how do you do the latter? Instant testing, leaving the house? Better have your negative test on you in case asked by authorities! Semi joking with this Orwellian vision, but also semi serious, you can't go out to work confident you don't have CV for 48 hours if that's how long the results take.

TLDR - quick test good, Avacta sp go up

Morning troops, hope all well. I confess I sold a large chunk on the way down just before suspension, more luck than judgement, but still hold a paltry 132K shares. Not looking to join an action group but if it was the amount needed to swing a vote then I obviously would.

Keep well, health over wealth pertinent right now, that said if this is all done with in short-medium term then there will have been some serious buying opps out there!

All the best -BN

Just hit 2.8p, very strange considering cash position

Lemonade, 70p was 100% of trading company, ESL now owns 49%. So return to pre suspension level is c34p, which would be lovely granted

I appreciate that Covid testing isn't the sole business case for this entity, but for some perspective, if theirs is finalised swiftly then the market is as follows: Planet Earth. You can't get much bigger than that. Anyone have any ideas on pricing and margins for testing kits? (New to pharma apologies)

Jonesrichard the maths isn't quite right there, if this is to 100 bag and it's already 3 bagged then sadly you only have 33.3 bags to go to get to your original 100 bag. I hope a meagre 33 bags is sufficient though?

Didn't this open at 5/6p, climb to 17p, then tank it to 6p, then climb to 14p, and has now (almost) dropped back to those lows again, one could be forgiven for hoping for a repeat ride again (I know I know this is the weakest, most basic analysis ever). Worth bearing in mind that the income-earning conditions for ESL are as good as they could be all things considered.

I agree with Truth, Dbay holding 51% plus the additional is essentially the same as holding all the cards, hence waiting for their hand. Doesn't mean there isn't huge upside though, I still firmly believe that the underlying logistics operation has been blessed with high demand and low costs (fuel, traffic reduction) so if it can't make bumper profits in this market then it doesn't deserve to exist!

Falling knife? Our hands are slashed to bits!

Markets just went risk off it seems

Alan, re your 3 points:

Dividends
EBITDA multiple
Value of investment(s) = market cap (with any adjustments/discount that the market holds)

Digging through the RNS's I think it's important to clarify one point, quote:

Significant revenue growth over the last three years has placed substantial demands on the Group's working capital, primarily as a result of set-up activities following new business wins.

The debt has originated from huge growth, which is still in place (contracts with Tesco, Amazon etc), and the profitability is slowly due to be realised. This company can generate a profit, it's not that this bumper will swing them into profit, it will boost already profitable trading activity. The longer it goes on for the more of a dent the directors can put into the debt, and subsequently reduce interest/repayment obligations. Thinking about, with PIK being due at some point in the future (does anyone know if a long stop date was put on this?) I wouldn't be surprised if they clear some bank debt first that has regular interest and capital repayments due, as that will bolster day to day cash flow more than the PIK debt, which is one to deal with later seeing as interest due at the end.

So with an extension to the lockdown looking extremely likely the logistics entity we own 49% of is going to benefit from continued demand as well as cost benefits from low fuel prices and clear roads. If the latter, combined with cost savings achieved post restructure, can improve overall margins then the boosted revenue really should create a decent surplus, which logic would dictate the directors would utilise to prepay onerous debt. If this crisis does indeed achieve that then my view is that ESL can comfortably recover value to pre-suspension levels, if not better depending how 'bumper' this huge revenue injection is. It's not gonna happen overnight but seems like good short term potential.