Member Info for Blonde-ad

20p is putting up quite a fight!

Another 6% rise in lithium price will see it reach the dfs price assumption.

Ought to be adding urgency to offtake discussions as it could easily do that in a single day

Another 10m shares in issue - not too terrible

Depends entirely on price and quantity. If it’s at or near the current price, then I expect this will be positive immediately after.

It was pretty much nailed on, as Keith alluded to in interview, and as the financials indicated…

Let’s see what the Aussies make of it tonight. Most likely a shrug/whatever!

Low forties is roughly a billion usd/year after costs, so it would certainly help.

Some interesting hints in that interview about possible early approval on EIA, and use of JTF funds for early stage works. No mention of imminent fundraising, so hopefully now the big reporting spend is out of the way, they’re on a greatly reduced cash burn and looking to string things along with minimal or no further dilution (other than pre agreed share issue) until the next chunk of fund money lands.

He also mentioned again the disconnect between share price and what they feel the value of their share should be, albeit not sure what they can do to address this if the market doesn’t agree. An offtake or strategic partner announcement might do the trick!

Whatever route is chosen, I think the main thing holding back here at the moment is operational cash flow. It was mentioned before Christmas, but it needs to be resolved, at least for as long as it takes to close out some offtakes (preferably with some element of upfront payment).

Not sure how realistic that is, but it would be good if they could clarify funding requirements and how this is met sooner rather than later.

There's going to be a catch there - either it doesn't exist, or it doesn't work as they say it does.

Most of the big players are working on solid state, including the likes of catl and byd, but in general they still have a lithium metal anode.

Samsung seem to be going a different route with removing the anode completely, but still requiring lithium, so I don’t see these as any sort of threat to demand. More likely an accelerant as better energy densities/higher safety/faster charging/increased cell charge cycles etc. lead to a faster transition into ev than seen to date.

No idea why they’re bothering to reinvent the wheel though (motorbike). That seems a waste of time/gimmick

Just gone past $20k/t. 50% improved from dfs release date.

Ought to be helping discussions for both finance and offtake

I don't disagree that EMH now have limited control, however, if they (CEZ) wanted them out of the picture completely, the time to have done it would have been when delays were announced, lithium price was at it's low, and an (effective) decision to mine hadn't yet been taken. Arguably it still hasn't until FID, but it seems it'll take a lot to back out of it from this point with the amount of Gov/EU support already given.

Suggests it's not as straightforward, and hopefully means that even if we do get shoved out, it'll be at a half decent price, not an all time low.

At this rate lithium is going to be closing in on $20k/tonne before middle of January. Ought to add weight to any discussions regarding floor pricing. Sounds like the Chinese are pushing prices up also, so that could help

Can’t see $2 happening anytime soon

This needs sustained increase in lithium price, more grants, agreed offtakes, and an explanation of the base lithium price (based on reality rather than trying to make the IRR fit the capex) in order to improve.

Reminds me of science experiments at school - decided on the answer you want, then fiddle the numbers to suit.

Not what I’d expect for justification of a multi billion dollar mine

The difference (for those interested) is quite simple. They've taken then last 5 years of mining off the income for the mine (which is the inferred resource). As far as I can tell all the rest of it stays the same.

They still need to issue a correction however. Presumably for the funding application the jorc resource has to be the measured/proven, not the inferred, but given the document is entirely geared to getting funding, it shouldn't have made it past the first review stage without this being picked up. very embarrassing (or should be if those involved weren't so indifferent to how they treat long term shareholders/investors)

Perhaps they should just reopen it as a tin mine?!

Is it possible they have already been factored in the generate the production costs?

If the capex and opex hadn’t gone through the roof, along with lithium prices sitting just above half that assumed in the dfs, then perhaps 🤔 it would have been perceived as good news.

Thankfully he’s got a flawless track record!

I guess there’s not really much to add, other than the usual drivel over increased costs etc.

At least there’s a chance of better news now regarding more grants/finance and offtakes etc. with the costs increase shocker out of the way (kind of).

Possible refinements on costs into FID would be good also to decrease production costs, or at least offset against all the credits previously discussed/sold as being the big project upside to balance against the low grades