Average NG futures prices based on today's rates -
2025 $3.6
2026 $3.9
2027 $3.8
Dividend should secure for some time yet IMO. I'd load up even more at these prices if I hadn't already put in as much as I'm comfortable with in a single company.
so there's a new short in play today. caused sp to drop to a little over £8 at one point in london, finishing around £8.50 but soon to recover to $12.89 across the pond which is basically £10. in my book that's a big fail. better shorting next time, ******s!
Https://twitter.com/SeplatEnergy/status/1749788261273252015?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
We're working with the National Oil Company & the government & we're optimistic about a speedy resolution of the MPNU deal. We estimate that our turnover revenues will probably go 2 to 3 times what they are today in terms of production. #transformingLives #SeplatEnergy
Ok, thanks for the explanation Axe
It all seems very odd to me. I understand, and to the best of my ability follow, Benjamin Graham's mentality. The way markets now work seems completely irrational to me. I guess that puts me in the "not too many brain cells" category.
So let's consider Graham's strategy. When the share price is depressed and disconnected from the company's fair value for no good reason one should buy. Providing that the company you've invested in is sound and has a long term future it should only be a matter of time until there is a correction and share price rises to something approaching fair value. At that point one should probably sell and search for other value opportunities
Presently this is in deeply undervalued territory IMO
I guess the issue here is that while I just give shorters the middle finger there are weaker retail investors who give up and sell. I will sell of course, but not at anything like these prices!
Shorts should definitely not be made illegal. Shorts are especially important in hot countries, particularly where people need to work outside of they have no A/C in their office.
In all seriousness, is shorting not often connected with market manipulation? Was the first short here not opened the day before the congress letter ? I don't believe in coincidences of that nature.
Why oh why did I not take profits, or better still sell out completely in the spring when commissioning began and SP was >18p?
Reason - I was greedy and expected production to ramp up as planned, for us to be raking in $$$$ and for the SP to be in the 30's by now.
I neglected to take into account the Hummingbird factor, LOL!
We know that DEC hedges most production 12-24 months ahead.
Feb 25 to Jan 26 ave futures price is $3.5
Feb 26 to Jan 27 ave futures price is $3.9
I think I read that they need to average at least $3 so if they've locked in prices similar to the above or better for 25/26 the future looks good.
I think it was Benjamin Graham that said something to the effect that a share price is just a quotation or an offer to buy your shares. You obviously don't have to accept it.
So long as there's an annual divi of £2.76 / share or anything even remotely close to that number I'll not be considering offers or quotes under £15 to past with any of mine.
If something changes fundamentally I may reconsider, but it hasn't as yet.
"So how many years of reserves do others get? And how do they get to this figure?"
Key to the business model in the long run is being able to acquire additional wells, at least partly through debt, as a minimum to offset the decline and ideally to actually increase production. Of late they've chosen to reduce debt and accept some decline but I doubt that strategy will continue indefinitely. If it does the company will just fizzle out and die off.
The youtube video that followed on from this was https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_5hYsdVbW2E
Very interesting interview with African Billionaire Aliko Dangote
He explains that at the current rate of population growth Nigeria will be the 3rd most populous country in the world by 2050, behind only China and India.
What a growth market and what better energy company than Seplat to invest in?
The liability for capping @ circa $20K/well is covered in DEC's forecasts and if capping is their only liability I have few concerns. However if they also need to remove infrastructure and make good the land it seems this would incur significantly higher costs, much higher than accounted for.
I would have thought that obligations in this regard would be clear cut? Surely agreed in the original driller's contract and presumably also agreed with DEC at the point the wells were sold?