Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
Mining is not as simple as looking at numbers on an excel spreadsheet. There are huge financial risks to new projects.
A few examples plucked out of thin air -
Scotgold Resources, mining grades of circa 15g/oz, now in administration.
Tharisa, wanting to become a multi asset miner developing a new Karo PGM mine in Zim. Their chrome mining in SA is doing fine but PGM basket price has plummeted to the point where it's approaching the AISC so their new project may now be a huge liability, at least until the basket price recovers significantly.
What about Condor? Trying to sell La India but not many takers so far. They're not really capable of mining it themselves.
Then there's Hum disastrous period with Yanfolia not so long ago which most here will remember when AISC was >POG.
Moral of the story - don't push your luck and overstretch. What will happen to debt ridden miners if POG drops to $1300 in 3 years for example?
Go back a bit further, I got involved when SP was mid 20's but some bought before that when it was in the 30's or 40's. I saw mine drop from mid 20's to about 14p at which point I bailed out. I returned after it had dropped to the 5's and was on its way up to 8p. As soon as I bought in the 8's it dropped back to the 5's again, LOL.
Yanfolia was quite a disaster for some time, machinery breakdowns, rains, mining contractor failures, political unrest, then more rains...etc etc..... everything to blame...except DB...LOL
It's circa 85% owned by institutions according to SW Street and that's not changed much for a while as far as I'm aware. I'd guess it's not institutional sells that are killing the SP?
@pardariff
I'm not sure you can apply normal metrics to determine P/E of this share.
According to Stocko the TTM NP is $942M whereas 2022 NP was loss of $625m. All related to hedging I know.
On the basis that circa 40% FCF is paid out to shareholders in divis then price to FCF would be about 2. Since FCF is >NP the P/E would surely be >2?
Https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/swiss-authorities-banks-mull-new-rules-prevent-bank-runs-sources-2023-11-02/
LONDON/ZURICH, Nov 3 (Reuters) - Swiss authorities and lenders, including UBS (UBSG.S), are discussing new measures to prevent bank runs after Credit Suisse’s rescue earlier this year, four sources familiar with the matter said, a move that could affect billions in deposits.
The talks, which have not been previously reported and are part of a broader review of the country's banking rules, are intended for the top Swiss banks and could target mainly their wealth clients, two of the sources said.
@pickedpeck
I believe the reason they're listed in London was because a listing on AIM was less onerous than a NYSE listing. Obviously things have moved on and they outgrew AIM to join LSE main market.
Correct Bushy. Over the past 2-3 years I must have read literally dozens of bullish forecasts on POG, none yet to materialise. I invested here because I thought (and still think) that with a reasonably favourable POG and Hum delivering on anything close to promised volumes this is way, way undervalued.
My investment decision here is based on circa 200KOZ @ a POG of >$1800 and an AISC of circa $1300. Anything better is a real bonus.
I've no clue what Comex predicts....$2000, $2500, $3000?
With 800,000 shares here I'll buy you many beers if my pessimism is unfounded and gold explodes.
On a completely separate note, what happened to that unlucky lucy clown who accused me of being a troll?
I'd be delighted to be proven wrong but I don't take any predictions about POG hitting numbers much above $2100 within the short to mid term seriously. In all honesty anything in the $1900 to $2100 range should do very nicely and if Hum cannot make a success of it at those prices next year when they will apparently be in full production I guess they should throw in the towel. Do I think they will make it work? Well I bought the shares so I'm gambling on it happening!
I still think the reason for today's drop is half wits incorrectly associating DEC with the POO which as we all know is only a very small fraction of their business. Oil price now appears to be recovering somewhat and if it continues to do so I expect to see the same people pushing this SP along with oil majors back up again tomorrow. I could be wrong. Let's wait and see.