Member Info for Bismarck

One of those annoying things...you're convinced it's a good thing, invest a sensible amount but don't go crazy because you're in doubt because there appears to be little interest elsewhere...

I find it hard to believe I invested here at £2 just over a month ago.

I can see this hitting £3 this month, maybe £4 by year end....

Darien

I'm interested to know where you get a forward P/E of 5 from (or where Stocko get theirs from)?

I cannot see any forecasts in the results, only historic numbers.

Stocko gives me a 2025 forecast revenue of $138M, NP of $56M and with a MC of $201M makes 2025 P/E under 4. With forecast 2026 NP of $71M the P/E drops to 3.

I've now sold half my THX shares at a near 200% profit and invested here to spread my junior miners risk. I think SRB could be more secure place to be in the next couple of years as THX Segilola project runs out of open pit reserves.

4% drop in SP despite oil up >2% today

I see a trading opportunity. Just loaded up a few more at £2.30 with a view of selling at £2.40 or so

Good shout JC and Terry,

I don't often trade but bought 700 this morning at 10.39 and just sold at 10.60

Just sold the shares I bought yesterday at £2.23 for £2.425 for a quick £800 profit, nice!

I increased my holding by about 10%, buying at £2.23 this afternoon. Won't keep the extra shares too long as I'm already quite overweight here. Would be nice to make a quick 10% selling within a month.

So glad I've held this patiently for over 2 years now. At my £1.38 average I'm waiting to see £2.76 before I sell half my shares and the remaining half will be a free gift! That's excluding the divis on the way.

I understand the ore stockpile to be currently ~1.5M tons @ grade of ~1g/ton, so ~50KOZ in the existing stockpile alone waiting to be processed.

On further reading I can now see that petroleum is a special case in Nigeria, and it's quite complicated -

Petroleum profit tax (PPT)

PPT is a tax on the income of companies engaged in upstream petroleum operations in lieu of CIT.

The PPT rates vary as follows:

50% for petroleum operations under production sharing contracts (PSC) with the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC).

65.75% for non-PSC operations, including joint ventures (JVs), in the first five years during which the company has not fully amortised all pre-production capitalised expenditure.

85% for non-PSC operations after the first five years.

30% for upstream gas profits.

Following the enactment of the Petroleum Industry Act 2021, holders of a Petroleum Prospecting Licence and Petroleum Mining Lease will be subject to both CIT at 30%, and Hydrocarbon Tax (HCT).

Presumably it's 30%?

https://taxsummaries.pwc.com/quick-charts/corporate-income-tax-cit-rates

Towards the upper end of the range of corporation tax globally, but not unusually high

I've just been through the full 2 year production summary in the investor presentation and which includes details of the ore stockpile size and grade. As of end 2024 it was 1.47m tons at a grade of 0.94g. As of end Q1-25 there's a further 40,000 tons to add to that It's now over 1.5m tons.

That works out at ~45,000 OZ based on a 90% recovery rate. Based on a sale cost of $3000/OZ and $400/oz processing cost (just guessing those numbers) they currently have about $118m sitting in the stockpile.

I was determined I'd not top up as I wanted to keep my 16p average, but that calculation of the stockpile value was the final straw and I've given in and bought another 27.5K at 35p.

That's it now, no more buying! If it hits 50p this year I'll sell maybe half.

Thanks for the explanations, they make perfect sense.

I guess also as they go deeper underground the mining will become more challenging so having the stockpile to fall back on if or when mined volumes decrease is a big plus. Also a big plus that the stockpile is basically a huge latent asset waiting to be realised at the appropriate time.

I'm delighted that I invested here at the end of 24 and I'm now +120%. I'm planning to hold for the time being as I can still see further upside in the SP as well as divis.

Reading the production summary in the RNS I can see that they appear to be mining almost twice the amount of ore that they can process. Over the past 5 quarters they have mined almost 2m tons ore but only processed ~1.1m tons.

I've not looked at volumes for pre 2024, but on the past 5 quarters alone they must now have an ore stockpile of ~1m tons which will take over a year to process. If so, what's the point in continuing to dig it up at the current rate?

Either the ship is sinking or the ship's well afloat but the captain does not want the rats who jumped off the sinking ship to know that flooding is now under control?

I've just bought in here over the past few weeks -

Stocko numbers -

12m forecast rolling P/E 3

2025 E net revenue $1066 M

2025 E net profit $275 M

Net debt TTM -$143 M

Book value per share $2.11

Divi 16.8%

2025 Divi cover 2.01

What's not to like?

The Summit Natural Resources acquisition was paid for fully in cash so it seems that they are prioritising acquisitions over paying off debt, buybacks or divis with any surplus cash.

It seems the market is happy with the deal, given that the SP has held up well since the announcement, while HH price has dropped significantly. This certainly makes a refreshing change!

$4.25 !

Www.r e s earch t ree,c om