The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
More probably 2 months of running costs and BC held on Balance Sheet.
Topic for discussion as ARB will soon be throwing off considerable surplus cash what should be done with it
a) Distributed as dividend
b) Held in £ on Balance Sheet
c) Held as BitCoin
d) Held as a mix of cryptos
Sensible answers might help guide PW as to what to do
2nd price monitoring extension of day suggests MM’s are under pressure.
At current share price we are heading into the FTSE Small Cap - the share price target for later in the month needs to be 181p which will give us automatic entry to FTSE 250.
Inclusion in the indexes means the Tracker funds have to buy!!
You are ignoring the halving - half our mining of coins was pre that. Also there a less than 3m coins to be mined each coin is harder than the last and thirdly the number of professional big outfits are rising so same number of coins spread over many more machines.
Further cautionary notes:
a) Bitcoin the major supplier of machines is chinese - ask your self three questions
1) Why are the Chinese not mining the gold but instead selling us the spades
2) Do you trust those machines not to have a back door by which the Chinese govt can get/ delete the *****ain records they hold- how does that affect the value of BC
3) Why are American IT companies not making bit-coin miners and selling them to ARB or Mara - all BIG RISK factors!!
This
Might be the mechanism to keep a cap on the share price and make sure the benefits of rise in BC go to management / insiders rather than ordinary shareholders.
So my guess - share price opens 30p rises increasingly rapidly over morning to 80p - then suspension pending an Open Offer at 35p trebling share capital and announcement of listing on NASDAQ.
Well that is what I would do if CEO not to mention grant all the mgt employees a lorry load of options at 20p
All
Read the RNS’s - from memory our mining efficiency is 57% @ 14K so currently we have a margin of 20k per coin.
The cost you mine a coin I BELIEVE is an interplay between energy costs / coin activity / speed of internet/ other miners activity etc- the algorithm ARB optimises our activity relative to these factors - but like miners in Oz having to give up in the summer heat!!
Last management report based on BC @ 14k. On a conservative basis we now have at BC @ 24k an extra 10k margin on 1000 Bc pa - £10m profits at PE of 20 equates to market cap £200m with circa 300m shares fair price is 66p .
Adjust any of those elements up or down - the US techies reach PE of 100+ we are currently BC @27K and my estimate of mgt contract value - and a current ceiling price of about £6.20 and min price of £0 when fraud or a viral takedown of the bitmining computers hits DYOR
Remember ARB has the highest efficiency of mining of any of listed miners- as of today I was unaware of MARA which is currently mining less than us...now it gets interesting the RNS of 5th Nov states -
In addition to the purchase of machines to be leased to Argo, the Company has partnered with a third party which has purchased a new fleet of 4,378 miners to mine for its own account. These units will be delivered in February and March 2021. Argo and the third party have entered into a managed cryptocurrency mining services agreement whereby Argo will be managing the mining operations of these machines. This managed cryptocurrency mining services agreement will have an initial term of 24-months, and Argo will receive a monthly fee for these services.
If that is MARA which seems probable and if we have a performance clause included that is an enormous stream of income for the next 24 months and may mean that it is cheaper for MARA to buy us up to get our algorithm advantage that pay an escalating management fee - my guess this contract alone is worth 50p a share
AJB is having problems with its software update. On Monday the platform was not functioning. On going issues are withdrawals are not being processed/ currently lost and their message system has lost its records - on my account. Have others had issues- with their client base they could be facing a sizeable compensation hit
My Halifax Sipp which AJB provide trustee admin service to is also having withdrawal issues - my guess is their interface to HMRC to calculate tax on withdrawals is non functioning IMHO
This is a business set up to capitalise on the Research Laboratory of one of the leading chemists in the world
From the latest RNS
"DeepMatter has rights to intellectual property arising from the laboratory of Professor Cronin as part of its Intellectual Property and Royalty agreement with the University of Glasgow."
If you dig a little you will find some of the research is truly disruptive...if you think lithium is the way forward a bit of digging into what is going on in Glasgow might make you rethink the electric power source!!!
Currently the Duncans and Mr Holloway own nearly 35% of the business and have lent it £160000 ....data c/o Investorease 21-03-2013 David John Holloway 8,660,666 10.2 % 21-03-2013 Ronald James & Helen Lyn Duncan 20,981,472 24.66 % Under the offer they would be entitled to a further 2 million shares......what are they taking up ....a mere 150K each. Are they paying for them with their own hard cash??..... Salary of directors RJ Duncan £78,000 HL Duncan £78,000 DJ Holloway£156,000 These salaries ....from accounts 31.12.12 are a staggering £312K...over 27% of TOTAL STAFF COSTS... No instead off backing this company with great growth prospects and a recent share price at 60+p they are TAKING THEIR MONEY OUT OF THE COMPANY AT 33P....by capitalising 100K of their loan and taking the remaining money out....so they don't think ATUK...soon to be Cloud Buy is worth buying at 33p....but I lay money they'll grant themselves large options at the current market price...in a few months time when the sp has fallen below the offer price. If you have been sucked into the company in the last few weeks and are thinking of taking your offer up remember the following (a) The company is loss making and has been every year since its inception (b) Its T/o is barely 2 million and the Tungsten deal will add less than 500K pa in revenue...the VISA money is blue sky....it may be millions it may be pennies.....VISA are the driving force behind the fee going to a per unit used basis....perhaps they have their doubts...no transactions no cost to them, slow rewards for @UK....... (c) The directors have always talked a good talk and have made a handsome living from the business at shareholders expense but have repeatedly failed to deliver the profits they promise. - look back at the RNS's for 2011 and 12 and the declining share price (d) They admit to having got their pricing wrong in the offer document I quote "Having surveyed the market and the competition, @UK has concluded that it has been undercharging for its services." But will users accept a big price increase ?? Not if thesavings are not there. (e) They admit their marketing is rubbish and the product has not delivered savings.Again I quote from the Offer Doc "@UK's challenge has been explaining this to procurement departments which, because of the competition's limitations, tend to believe that spend analysis is just the categorisation of spend into high level categories such as stationery, furniture and travel. This has been compounded by the fact that the UK public sector has made limited savings to date". (f) The smart money bought these at 8-11p and are now long gone...with their money in the bank... (g) There are NO PREDICTIONS or forecasts of future profitability in the offer document...so the directors have not put their necks on the block if the £5million is eaten up in ineffective marketing and expe