RE: missing ingredients10 Oct 2018 13:01
Yes, it is not neutral - I apologize. it was not a subtle deramp.
my original point was just a warning against only looking at a chart and the historic SP because the volume of shares influences the SP on one level (why I am with jointhedots on the share buyback idea).
you are right, looking back no matter what details you establish has little bearing on the future SP, IMHO. it may impact sentiment etc, but first and fore-mostly the business fundamentals today ought to be assessed. on that note, if we are at 5000 bopd = 150K p/m - 1.8M p/a. x $65 = $120M, less costs, are we not talking around $70M profit? the assets have roughly a, what, 14 year life span? so, what we have today looks like $1Bn profit over useful life. if we then called it quits and wound the company up, i would expect about 80p each of my shares.
So, excluding all other (fully funded) drilling prospects, back of napkin 80 p/p/s over next decade. So discount future rev and include some risks, yeah, at 5K bopd with nothing to support future oil finds, I'd take 40p/p/s today.
however, the goal is to get to 20K bopd.........
Would you take a 40p 'dilution' now if a buyer could be found?