Mid-term opportunity6 Feb 2026 14:28
Some very rough calcs. c.90% of US population has medical insurance. c.27,000 kidney transplants last year. Assuming just one test per transplant, at unindexed $2,650 per test, the USA market-alone is worth $64m. I'm also assuming the Tennessee lab can service the entire USA
I'm not sure how many patients are represented by the 1,173 tests in 2025, and how many transplant centres vs the total in the USA, but the market penetration appears decent, considering the academic papers were only published 6 months ago
Some may questions the relevance of academic papers and other KPIs may be more relevant, but it strikes me that the increase in number of clinicians and the increase in number of transplant centres will be strongly influenced by the academic articles and their subsequent peer reviews
My view? VRCI will get bought out when the USA nears profitability due to it's domestic market opportunity and the obvious globalisation opportunity. Need to pay very close attention to what happens between now and next (and probably final) equity raise