Member Info for bigpunt

Petr I agree with much of your views but I feel the single factor that will determine the resilience of PFG through this period of turbulence is collections performance. I don't mind chunky central costs if the legal team and customer service functions are performing excellent

These are preliminary results. This means the audit report is not signed

Theborn the UK market is gloomy full stop. Investment in countries like the US is up because they don't have a ridiculous exposure to supply volatility such as energy. That means there are huge returns to be had for those investing in their ISA accounts in the right markets and companies. It's a fun time to be an investor - you might be looking back at your portfolio in 5 years lamenting the businesses that went under, and you might have trebled your money with 15% dividend yields!

Nuri whether you like the food or not is academic. JDW is about operational consistency. I have noticed, like others, that supplies seem to be sporadic. But they are still open and still trading. They are a resilient business and the next update will be an interesting read

The other thing that really ****es me off, is that a 'multinational' will be "looking over their shoulder" cringing and laughing simultaneously at the sales performance knowing that they can now negotiate terms based on a much lower notional sales volumes, and reap the benefits when they inevitably succeed in reaching the addressable market. Yes, market cap will rocket, but the magnitude will be a fraction

It's not worth pulling others up on their comments here, but the CEO love-in is getting quite repulsive. Not sure he would make it in used car sales, and he has said they have messed up logistics

Disco_Dan, there is no indication they are talking to a 'multinational'. I have changed the order of the closing comments which perhaps helps illuminate this pertinent point:
"We decided to decline these offers and pursue a more global and wider reaching deal with a multinational"
"We believe it is in the best long-term interest of the company to secure a long-term partnership, and that this opportunity lies with multinationals. We believe that now we are in a position to negotiate"
"We will look to...commence negotiations with future partners"

Terrible update on Axisbiotix

"In addition, the Company continues to adapt its marketing strategy since the initial launch in October 2021, and is becoming more informed of what the optimal sales and marketing strategy is going forward"

This needs to be presented, in full, very quickly. The company have resourced up heavily and have completely failed to deliver. There has not really been an explanation as to why they have failed. I note:

It is also enhancing its operations to facilitate smoother and more efficient logistics and distribution by relocating the warehousing for its growing UK customer base from the Netherlands to the UK

Interesting they have commented on logistics when retention rates are high. Have orders been cancelled / credit notes issues due to poor logistics? There are also other strange comments, such as:

refining its operations to build a stronger validation case around the AxisBiotix-PS

Are they just talking about a customer survey before and after consumption? It is really lacking in detail but none of it addresses new customers.

Based on cash burn, investors should probably wait until the likelihood (which appears high) of an equity raise is clarified

DRB well done for commenting but please refrain if you don't know what you are talking about. "After all depreciation is only going to reduce the NA". Depreciation on freehold/long leasehold buildings is over 50 years. The charge is immaterial so by definition does not require any attention drawn to it.

You do make one good point, perhaps accidentally, and that is it appears they use their supply chain for financing - although this is nothing new. They are leveraging their significant buyer power - I view this as a sign of strong management.

My understanding of announcements is that since trading restrictions were lifted and a little time passed for the dust settle, they are trading profitably. That is good enough for me as I have no issues with the financing of the company whatsoever

Interesting that those with a sell view are only quoting debt and less money in people's pockets.
The truth is that folk need hospitality in some guise or you are effectively in a lockdown, and we know the consequences of that lifestyle. I see declining disposable income as a big benefit for JDW vs the pub and general hospitality sector. They are the champions of no frills and their app-based ordering is market leading and cannot be copied because of their scale in making staff productive.
Debt is high at £900m but is backed by £1.1bn of freehold/long leasehold pubs (at cost less dep'n rather than valuation)
and debt is still significantly cheaper than equity.
I'm delighted with the position and the prospects of JDW.

Barrie why would the price increase after the ex-div date? In a stable market the price would usually retract by an amount equal to the dividend

Thanks for that Jake
Without doubt there was a shift with the move from agent collections to insourced and remote collections, and the company held their hands up to that mistake. But that is CCD and that is now a closed business.
If you have any insights on how the vehicle finance business in particular is running, please do share

Q3 trading update:

"Since 13 March, the company has returned to profitability and to a positive cash flow, and is cautiously optimistic about the prospect of a return to relative normality in FY23"

This will be my only engagement with Toyin: will you be attending any AGMs?

Elrico, not wanting this to be protracted. 1. "There is no race to build sales..." 2. I believe the sales/marketing strategy is one-dimensional. As an example, my mother has psoriasis and the strategy employed has no way of reaching her and it is not debatable. Although I'm sure there are 1000 reasons why not, it isn't right

Clark is there a reason why? They have been trading profitably since the spring

Clio, thanks for your balanced thoughts. There is a lot of sympathy for the 'soft' launch but there is always a large void between the truth and managing the city - I just want to get the crux of why, and you have offered a reasonable explanation, being logistics. It was indeed referred to in the latest investor presentation

Elrico you have been courteous and I respect your thoughts, but I do disagree about building sales. At the end of the day, if SBTX cannot sell their excellent products and build the mkt cap, they will be aggressively taken over and someone else will do it

Elrico, I do appreciate the history and that the D2C was not anticipated. I have been a small holder of OPTI for many years also and whilst it is flattering to compare to different products in different markets, one needs to assess the sales performance of that product in that market.

Sulis, thanks for your thoughts. It is the retention rate that pleases me the most, but also annoys me the most. If we know the product works and consumers love it, why are they not launching more aggressively? I must be missing something - have they not ordered enough product to meet a stronger demand? Is the supply chain management poor and working to very high lead times or can they only order in very large volumes? I just don't understand their frugal approach with a product that, as you rightly highlight, is delivering great outcomes for users.

Thanks Toyin but I thought this Board may offer more sophisticated insights than youtube videos. This is not about spreading doubt I am simply trying to objectively assess how the company operates but it seems we have zealots here with no insight (perhaps barring Elrico). I appreciate your responses

Elrico I have no doubt in his leadership of product development and bringing them to market. You have verbatim explained his sales strategy - he may be dynamic, but it is currently only in one dimension. With a product with such overwhelmingly strong success rates, very slow increments in sales to new customers as a strategy is simply not good enough given the cost of our Executive

I've noted the positive comments regarding the CEO on this board. I have no doubt that his scientific technical expertise (and communicating that to us lay people) is his strong point, but building a sales marketing & distribution strategy, I'm not so sure. I have no answers but it presents that the company has put eggs in a single basket rather than measurable multi-channelled pilots which I would have thought would be a good way to develop the strategy.

He has invested quite heavily in a CFO which can't be doing much, perhaps half a day per week of strategic work / systems development and the remainder bean counting. He really needs to add skill to his team where it is needed.

I have a holding but this is stopping me from piling in. Please all let me know if I am missing anything pertinent