Ben Richardson, CEO at SulNOx, confident they can cost-effectively decarbonise commercial shipping. Watch the video here.
Even if they only manage to sell to 1mill of the targetted 9mill, which I’m sure is conservative, that’s still close to 30mill usd to ERP (less tax of course). ;-)
The above is based on 100usd/can. (The company did state sometime back that China would be something like 75% of a US can cost). Assuming 150USD/can in the US.
If it’s as much as that, they may even decide to pay their first ever dividend…….now I’m definitely getting ahead of myself……lol
I just checked the China agreement as I wasn’t 100 % sure my memory was still intact…lol.
I’m happy to write I was indeed correct. 25% of all receipt. Also, there will be a 6mill USD milestone payment upon approval which I had forgotten about. 25% will be amazing if Wanbang can achieve a good % of the 9 mill sufferers targeted in the first year. Regarding the 6mill payment. It’s so close yet so far given ERP will run out of money at the end of this year. Since the NMPA approval could be mid next year (maybe even a little earlier), I hope Jim may see fit to loan the company some dosh to tied them over for a few months rather than have further dilution which I’m sure he too doesn’t want.
I am deliberately ignoring any possible us license agreement since we have been walking down that road for the last few years of BS with no result.
So my moto is now “Trust in the Chinese”…..lol
Morning The.Italian.
I would suspect that after reading about the renegotiated EU agreement, the Chinese made the rules re the upfront payments. Also, not forgetting they have paid and handled everything in a reasonable manner re the approval process. Also I think I am right in saying the % PLE receives is a lot higher than that of EU sales (wasn’t it something like 25% for China compared to mid teens for Europe). Ie if they do mange to capture much of the targetted 9 mill in the first year leading to 175mill in the following 9 years, we may never need to look back, so maybe not as bad as it first appears.
It certainly is very easy to manipulate the SP at this level. 42 squid at 19% (0.82 vs 0.69) above the sell price. Anyone could be doing it.....lol
Actually I'm not so sure the US is the big one any longer. Surely if it was that big, a licensee would have snapped up an agreement a long long time ago, yet nothing, not even now. As such, I'm beginning to think China is the replacement big one (and the Chinese approval will be 2 to 3 years before the US).
Also, one just has to look at numbers involved. USA population = 331mill. China population 1.412 Bill (4.25x larger) that's 41mill possible sufferers compared to 176.5mill. Even if one looks at a lower can price in China (according to the announcements a can in China will cost 67% of that in the US) so effectively 118mill sufferers. Even with a 50% uptake compared to the US, its still more.
At the end of the day only time will tell, however. The US will always be trying to catch up given the approval delay between the two.
Hi Prof, nice to see you still around.
By my reckoning, your investment should be more like 9 to 10k, if that’s any consolation. Yup I’m afraid as professional go, it turns out they know nothing about nothing when it comes to pharma or even investing (remember the DBC and now the DLI). At least the chinese have been steaming ahead. Hopefully final submission in a month or two with approval in about 12 months following. See what can happen when an approval process is taken out of the hands of monkeys.
Profit warning from ERP, but possible FDA Approval for FUM. Exciting times….lol
Morning The.Italian,
Not much chance now with company being in a closed period. I wonder how much the profit warning will show in a few weeks …lol
Morning The.Italian,
Certainly makes one wonder where it will stop. It’s been on free fall since the rights issue. I’m sure some may be kicking themselves, although notice how little the volume is.
So…. The market cap is now back to the levels of just before the Yooya announcement and the later DLI announcement. (Both times I suspect the sp was driven down by the company to allow the issue of more shares to parties involved - Although speculation on my part, the market action and timelines at both times could imply it).
Now the question is. Are we going to see the same thing at play here now. Obviously only time will tell…..lol
Interestingly the DLI management must be pretty pished off given how much they have seen their own 3.79mill usd investment decimated by. :-O
20 to 1 share consolidation, but you actually know that already.
Current price = 0.76 = 0.038 in old money, so it would appear you paid over the odds, although nowhere near as much as the A team….lol
I wonder if uninterested investors will sell on the sudden change in sp thinking they have hit the jackpot. I wonder what happens if sell orders have been placed at this new level. Will the current sp suddenly trigger unwanted sells…….although it doesn’t appear to be. An interesting question though? Are set sells automatically cancelled or is that the reason for the ticker number changing so adjustments can be made ?
Ahhh. Now a note showing 02945 is to be used temporarily due to a corporate event.
I wait to see what happens next ;-)
Now this has happened, will this poss lead to some operational update announcements this week. We can but hope….lol
So the numbers have changed from today by a factor of 20.
What is also interesting is, unlike the previous consolidation, the stock number has also changed, now 02945. I wonder why ?
Sp currently 0.82HK$, obviously with the same market cap as last Friday and of course lot number has decreased to 500 from 10k
Morning The.Italain. I can't argue with that. :-)
The company needs to close the phase II out and have a license agreement in place in the next 6 months otherwise I see no hope without yet another loan from JM. Of course this will depend on how any license agreement is written which would require an upfront payment including the costs for the phase lll and follow through to approval.
It’s interesting that a Chinese licensee was willing to step up to the plate in a short period of time and back it, yet not one US licensee was willing to do so even with it being supposedly the jewel in the crown as far as markets go.
Dougie. Nail on the head.
What is interesting is under RPG/ERP and back to RPGs control, the FDA process started at the beginning of 2014 and up to today they still have not closed out the phase II (an unprecedented 9years). Yet the Chinese process which effectively started on Dec 3rd 2018 when the license agreement was entered into and the start of the process became controlled by Wangbang, they have done it in half the time. They are soon to submit the phase 3 results with possible approval in the following 12 months (5 years) and that’s including a 1 year delay due to RPG not making sure the authorities had all relevant information.
This certainly shows how broken the machinations of the company and its workforce truly are.
As expected all resolution convincingly passed, including JG as CEO. Unfortunately it won’t do the company any good since he knows nothing about nothing….lol
That should have been. “as usual their timelines….”