Member Info for BigEgo

My understanding is that there will be a review of dividends in Q4 2020, which may allow banks to start paying again in 2021. Therefore boards could announce them by end of 2020 - but not pay them yet.

Search for "UK banks told to offer mortgage support when payment holidays end" via Google to avoid FT paywall...

"The UK’s financial watchdog has told banks to offer a range of “tailored” repayment options to mortgage borrowers hit by coronavirus when the ability to claim three-month payment holidays is withdrawn at the end of October."

https://www.ft.com/content/76ada5b7-69e8-4016-b7db-2dda54000c70

To clarify - (and this is with HL) - i couldn't get a fill at all for the whole holding - and if you start to split it up you notice the offer price gets slightly better the smaller the sale is. So i opted to sell about £100k 4 times, then one final lot of about £200k (which surprise surprise had the worst fill price).

I consider myself very lucky today as I managed to do this just after market open on the spike today, sold 2,115,647 shares in LLOY just after 8am.

(I really did this honest, the lot sizes were 344,374 344,648 344,962 338,516 and 743,147 - all visible in the LSE public record!)

If it shoots up tomorrow yes I'll be pi55ed :)

Will probably keep trading in and out for a while.

It can be hard to sell a large holding all at once with some market-makers.
I use a fairly common one, and couldn't sell 2.1m LLOY shares today so had to do it in 5 lots.

Sure. This is an institutional holder so things like averaging down don’t really come into it I think. They will probably have this large 6% holding in Lloyd’s for donkeys years .

I actually didn’t quote his final comment but for the lazy it was:

“I have to believe we are at or close to the bottom [of the valuation],” he adds. “It’s not easy keeping faith, but this virus will pass like all before it.”

Just thought it was interesting that the 2nd largest LLOY shareholder would make such a comment.

I hope he’s right! He is probably better informed than I am...

Spotted a recent article in the FT, generally about the pandemic - but it had an unexpected comment from Harris Associates. If you own LLOY and don't know who they are - you should check out a list of top shareholders. Harris Associates are the 2nd largest holder of LLOY with just under 6% of Lloyds held - a huge position, just behind Blackrock.

Here is the comment:

Things are getting a bit crazy. Economies are in recovery mode, capital and cash positions are very strong and yet bank valuations are worse than in 2009, it beggars belief,” says David Herro, vice-chairman of the $90bn asset manager Harris Associates, which owns top-five stakes in Lloyds, Credit Suisse and BNP Paribas.

https://www.ft.com/content/b0b241d9-7c94-4b91-b727-d39245005d07

29/07
(With GDP coming up ) Not a good day to release bad results. Weakness all round methinks...

27/07
(Re results day reaction) So a 10% drop would put us around 26p to 27p.

Have started buying in - spreading out purchases, last chunk at 25.931

US market wobble is a big unknown here, but I'm generally pleased with the position I am building...

NWG results tomorrow - more fuel on the fire? Or priced in to other banks? BARC under a quid was a shock today...

Missed link for the curious...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-gdp-likely-sank-a-record-35-in-the-2nd-quarter-after-coronavirus-ravaged-the-economy-2020-07-29

Also just noticed the Calendar for tomorrow.
Looking like a tough day.
at 1.30pm we have not just the US Jobless Claims numbers, predicated 16.2m but also the GDP Growth Rate predicted to be ... wait for it... -34%.

I think these 2 things will cast a shadow over the UK session until the numbers are released, then weakness in US markets.

Not a good day to release bad results. Weakness all round methinks...

LLOY is currently behaving as if its own results were announced today!
Maybe today's weakness will make tomorrow not so bad. Maybe not.

Barclays, April 29 2020:
"Pre-tax profit for the first quarter fell 38 per cent year-on-year to £913m, while bad loan provisions increased from £400m a year ago to £2.1bn. Analysts had forecast £923m in credit impairment charges."

Lloyds, April 30 2020:
"Pre-tax profit fell 95 per cent year-on-year, to £74m, due to £1.4bn of charges to cover expected credit losses. The provisions were more severe than many analysts had expected, and shares in the bank dropped as much as 5 per cent in early trading on Thursday."

Barclays next results out 7am tomorrow (July 29)
https://home.barclays/investor-relations/investor-news/regulatory-news/

Lloyds next results out 7am the day after (July 30)
https://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/investors/regulatory-news/

*** Looking for the key bad loan provision numbers from both vs current £2.1bn (BARC) and £1.4bn (LLOY) ***

See what i mean? That's not a proper news site! Auto generated cr4p.

"Ocados internet shopping guarantee has way too high an amount tag"
"Games workshop: the performs finished - The near future for retailer games workshop appears because great"

I'm dubious about the nature of investorsfreshnews - have you actually tried reading this and other articles?

They appear to be in broken english - as if auto generated by a bot. This is typical of click baiting 'news websites'.

Just try reading a few paragraphs then go to the homepage and read some of the other articles headlines and you might get what i mean!

Wonderful - thank you.

Is there a way to MUTE posters on LSE chat?
I used to use iii and ADVFN years ago, but they became a pile of childish garbage.
I've started using LSE chat just to keep a toe in with other investors, but frankly this LLOY board is going the same way.
Surely there is a MUTE option? I can't find it. Please help, or I'm outta here.

snige - no not suggesting offloading that soon.

To be honest - I am looking for a long term hold in my SIPP, with well over a decade to retirement still.

Most people hearing that would say don't bother market timing - just take a position now and forget about it. Which is a valid approach - however I have a round number of shares in mind and have been waiting for that price to invest for some time. That price was about 29.7p and I also felt comfortable buying below the 30p level which has been defended so well for quite some time.

So now I have the opportunity - why I am i hesitating ('on the fence message Friday' explained now hopefully).

Well it's taken so long to reach my target that we are now just days away from the results which could be significant to the price. I'm not going to wait for months only to get the rug pulled from under my feet 3 days later.

So trying to approach this better - am thinking perhaps buying 50% of the position by Wednesday, then the other 50% after results. I either manage to get the stake I want at a lower average price than I expected if it falls, or make an initial profit before adding the final 50% and am still happy.

This will be a significant investment - in the millions of shares. Don't laugh, or challenge, I feel no need to prove anything, it is what it is.

Let have a proper chat about the upcoming results. :)

First on 29th July we hear from Barclays. This is a very different proposition as they have an investment banking side which like many US banks has balanced out a lot of the retail banking issues recently. Nevertheless they will still be making a statement about impairment provision - and I think this will set the mood in UK banking this weak and spill over into Lloyds sentiment.

Then on 30th July we hear from Lloyds. Last time, as we all know, they increased impairment provisions. And this came at a cost to shareholders who sacrificed their dividends to allow Lloyds to preserve capital for these provisions. Logically there are only 3 possible outcomes on 30th - Lloyds reduce, keep the same, or increase impairment provisions. And this is the main thing the market is waiting to hear.

So how likely are these 3 outcomes?

Impairment provisions reduced. Can't see it myself. I'm going to ignore this option.
Impairment provisions held level. Again unlikely.
Impairment provisions increased. I think this has to be the base case. Which leads us on to: by how much?

If it's a small increase - eg £0.5bn to £1bn, then that's probably priced in, so although negative news, the share price may continue to hover around 29/30p.

A larger increase - eg £2bn+ would I feel be very negative. With the current market cap around £20bn this will look like a large % of the business. Markets always over react and we have all experienced big opening gaps. Look at TUI this morning, off 13% at first (yes for completely different reasons I know - but shows brutality of opening on negative news.

So a 10% drop would put us around 26p to 27p.

That's my thinking, in summary either a buying opportunity on news weakness 30th July around 26-27p or a continued sideways 29-30p on not so bad provisions.

Thoughts? DYOR blah blah. Not trying to upset anyone. Just want to talk about LLOY and not masks/Tesco/football. Thanks.

I really want to take a large position here under 30p - and it seems I have the chance now as Friday draws to an end.
However I am in 2 minds due to the results next week.
Market consensus is clearly that provisions will increase - but how much of this is already priced in?
If they add eg more than £2bn could there be a big down day, like -4/5% knocking this right down to 28.5 or lower?

I'll kick myself for waiting so long if I buy in just a few days too early.

Equally a positive result presentation could push it back over 30p and onwards.

Really on the fence with 18 minutes until market close!!! Anyone else about to trade LLOY into the close???

Well the mathematical answer is simple - with a £21bn market cap at 30p, LLloyds will reach your 82.28p target when the market cap is £57.8bn.

So just decide what will add £36bn in value to the business and over what timescale, and there's your answer!